[339955]

I would like it if some people who are knowledgable on NBA could help me out here. In a given game, how do you know if a team is actually playing well, or getting lucky?

What I'd like to do is look at the statistics to figure this out. For instance, I want to look at a team's 3 point shooting percent and see that if they are making a higher percent of shots in a particular game than they are getting lucky... but maybe it isn't luck, maybe the other team is playing bad defense.

Another metric maybe turnovers, for instance if a team averages 10 turnovers a game and already has 10 in the first half it could be bad luck, but then again it could be that the other team is playing good defense.

So could someone please help me sort out, how can you look at the statistics and tell what is luck in an NBA game and what shows a team is playing well, or poorly?

[tto827]

No idea. Using turnovers as an example, my guess is that "luck" would be the variation between the expected turnovers (based off team A's defense/Team B's offense for the season) and the actual number of turnovers Team B has.

If you bet college hoops, you really should have KenPom, and if you are a subscriber, he is really good about answering questions via email. He has a luck stat for college hoops, hell its probably worth $20 to sign up and just ask him for a quick analysis on how he quantifies "luck".