1. 03-06-13 11:32 AM #1
    Brebos
    Brebos's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-24-13
    Posts: 1,209
    Betpoints: 271

    Question about reverse line movement

    So for example: Miami is playing the Atlanta. The opening line is -7 for miami +7 Atlanta, the majority of the public is betting on the -7. Instead of the line moving to -8 it moves to -6. Does that mean that you as sharp better bet on Atlanta +6 or Miami -6?

    Thanks in advance
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 03-06-13 11:44 AM #2
    Rone247
    Rone247's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-01-12
    Posts: 385
    Betpoints: 0

    Betting against Miami is never sharp but in your example, hawks are the play.
    Points Awarded:

    Brebos gave Rone247 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 03-06-13 11:48 AM #3
    SpreadSniper
    SpreadSniper's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-09
    Posts: 6,125
    Betpoints: 7261

    the "sharp" play could have been the +7... but once it's gone the "value" behind the play is somewhat removed as you are typically paying the same price for a somewhat "worse" number.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 03-06-13 12:07 PM #4
    Brebos
    Brebos's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-24-13
    Posts: 1,209
    Betpoints: 271

    Alright thanks guys, this was purely theory, at this moment in time betting against miami would be giving away money. Could one say that when reverse line movement occurs on a matchup that lies closer to each other it's smart to follow it?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 03-06-13 12:13 PM #5
    nammertl
    nammertl's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-11
    Posts: 1,204
    Betpoints: 1

    it takes almost no capping ability to follow line movement.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 03-06-13 12:21 PM #6
    Rone247
    Rone247's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-01-12
    Posts: 385
    Betpoints: 0

    Personally I think line movement just gets you in trouble. Trust yourself and your plays.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 03-06-13 12:40 PM #7
    HardCore
    I Win Some, I Lose Less
    HardCore's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-05-12
    Posts: 3,615
    Betpoints: 72

    and its march ignore all line movements they will burn you. Favs are going to be the play for the rest of the year. I said it before and ill say it again these lazy over payed players are trying now which means good teams will play hard EVERY night and trash ass teams will begin to tank for more lottery balls. If this was december sac+5/Phi+3 wouldve cashed last night hell a couple of nights ago cle+3 and tor+6 wouldve cashed but its march and these playoff teams actually WANT TO WIN. NYK wouldve stop trying had that happend earlier in the year but no they kept trying cause its march and the games matter now
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 03-06-13 03:36 PM #8
    trendon
    trendon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-10
    Posts: 534
    Betpoints: 3681

    It pretty much is the first thing I look for when I start looking at the games. Don't bet it blindly, but it is one big, gigantic, "HEY, LOOK OVER HERE!" sign.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 03-06-13 04:20 PM #9
    Brebos
    Brebos's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-24-13
    Posts: 1,209
    Betpoints: 271

    So here is an example tonight: http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketb...s#.UTe_fBzcmk0
    As you can see the line moved from +2.5 for the rockets to +1.5, Utah Jazz also went from -1 to +1, are these good indications for us to decide to put some money on the cavs and rockets?
    Or does this tell us something else?
    (I had a bet on the rockets before I saw this fyi)
    Last edited by Brebos; 03-06-13 at 04:27 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 03-06-13 04:27 PM #10
    nammertl
    nammertl's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-11
    Posts: 1,204
    Betpoints: 1

    1 point isn't really that much. could just be public money being influenced by the last game.

    when it goes the other way 3 points is when you really have to wonder.

    like denver/sac yesterday total opened at 221, which i thought was a high number when these teams face other, but at opening it was 224.5. and of course the game total went over that.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Brebos
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote 1
  11. 03-06-13 04:30 PM #11
    Brebos
    Brebos's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-24-13
    Posts: 1,209
    Betpoints: 271

    Ahaa, so you have to keep an eye out for the bigger swings.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 03-08-13 10:42 AM #12
    Brebos
    Brebos's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-24-13
    Posts: 1,209
    Betpoints: 271

    Quote Originally Posted by Brebos View Post
    So here is an example tonight: http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketb...s#.UTe_fBzcmk0
    As you can see the line moved from +2.5 for the rockets to +1.5, Utah Jazz also went from -1 to +1, are these good indications for us to decide to put some money on the cavs and rockets?
    Or does this tell us something else?
    (I had a bet on the rockets before I saw this fyi)
    Coming back to my own reply: The cavs defeated utah and the rockets ALMOST covered.
    Today we see the mavericks opening at +5 and now at -4 and utah going from +5 to +4.
    Also the totals of GS vs The Rockets went from 224.5 to 221.5, thats a 3 point difference!!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | NBA Basketball Betting | Next Thread »