[Ratzz]

… 10% chance of covering..actually winning by 11 pts.

Although Minnesota is currrently 12th
and is NOT close to being a Playoff caliber team, without their best player. (Love)

the Lakers seem to habitually come up small in huge games that they must win.
i think the Timberwolves are going to run and score pretty well.. (over 100 pts.)

Denver outscored the Lakers 33-3 in Fast Break points, tonite more of that
likely and some shaky/slow defense by Los Angeles

*Though it logically should happen, after double-digit loss:
1) returning home court advantage
2) vs. losing record opponent minus their best player

I certainly do not expect a dominant performance by LA this evening.
11 Pt cushion should be more than safe.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Agreed Minny likes to run and should put up some pts. Only a fool lays these kind of pts with Lakers even at home. Faded them last week laying 9.5 if I remember right vs Portland and cashed. If I play this tonight it's Wolves or nothing! GL Ratzz

[MFgerm]

I think they come out more defensively. I do t really think they cover but they win by 7 both in the 90s. I like the under.

[Seto]

If you truly thought a +500 dog has 70% chance of winning, you would take the ml as well as the spread...

[Lakers Dynasty]

I hate to say this, but i tend to agree with you.

[Ratzz]

Agreed Minny likes to run and should put up some pts. Only a fool lays these kind of pts with Lakers even at home. Faded them last week laying 9.5 if I remember right vs Portland and cashed. If I play this tonight it's Wolves or nothing! GL Ratzz

good move on that... well done.. GL on your plays this evening.. RP

I think they come out more defensively. I do t really think they cover but they win by 7 both in the 90s. I like the under.

this could happen, MF– i think if they win it is by 5 or so, but Minny might under national coverage, i see that alot, lesser team gets the spotlight for once.. gets hot *

If you truly thought a +500 dog has 70% chance of winning, you would take the ml as well as the spread...

Seto right on with this

I hate to say this, but i tend to agree with you.

it is just the natural course of time and events.
It happens to everything, the only constant in the Universe is 'change'

[innovation]

I have Lakers winning near 81% of the time.

[JOHON8]

Minny were really bad against Pheonix. Not saying this should decide their performance, but for me it's hard to trust them after seeing that game.

[innovation]

In my opinion this line is only inflated by 1 or 1.5 points though.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Hard to see Lakers "blowing them out" tonight by 20+. However even if they are up say 15 with 3 min to go in 4th L.A. will just pull all the old guys and throw in the scrubs. Have a hard time seeing the backdoor ever getting slammed shut in this one.

[Ratzz]

Minny were really bad against Pheonix. Not saying this should decide their performance, but for me it's hard to trust them after seeing that game.

terrible game for Minny, i agree.. they are better than that.
I think Lakers are more interesting opponent, will get up more for game. Remember the Lakers only beat Charlotte by a point at the Staples (101-100) i think... almost lost on last shot

Hard to see Lakers "blowing them out" tonight by 20+. However even if they are up say 15 with 3 min to go in 4th L.A. will just pull all the old guys and throw in the scrubs. Have a hard time seeing the backdoor ever getting slammed shut in this one.

i think that a Laker blowout win is near impossible.. can't see double-digit victory for this group tonight.

[vancityswag]

yea youre right...just like how the suns had a 100% chance of winning last night's game against the spurs

[upscope]

Rat....R u saying that the Lakers have only a 30% chance of winning outright in this game??
In other words you're saying if the Lakers play the T-Wolves 10 x's in this exact scenario The T-Wolves win outright 7 x's??

And then u go on to say the Lakers have a 10% chance of covering??
So you're saying the T-Wolves cover in this exact scenario 90% or 9x's out of 10??

Am I reading what you are saying correctly??

[Ratzz]

Rat....R u saying that the Lakers have only a 30% chance of winning outright in this game??
In other words you're saying if the Lakers play the T-Wolves 10 x's in this exact scenario The T-Wolves win outright 7 x's??

And then u go on to say the Lakers have a 10% chance of covering??
So you're saying the T-Wolves cover in this exact scenario 90% or 9x's out of 10??

Am I reading what you are saying correctly??

each scenario is unique in time and space. If they play each other again, then it has to be evaluated again
Looking at the specific circumstances surrounding an event, and trying to determine the outcome.
It's just 'handicapping' and why game simulators fail miserably.

What game simulator might predict Suns OT win in San Antonio?
What game simulator might predict Patriots '0' Points (ZERO) in the 2nd Half vs, Ravens

what are you talking about "if they play this game 10 times"..? *
if it could never happen… why consider it at all?

i am talking about tonite, February 28th, 2013 Timberwolves @ Lakers (one-time event)

I looked at the facts (teams, circumstances, matchups, momentum, etc) and arrived at the conclusion that the Lakers
chances of winning were less than half, and their chances of double-digit win were most obscure.

[upscope]

So then what you r saying is that Minnesota should be favored in this game??

[upscope]

So you looked @ the "facts" & concluded that Minn wins tonight outright 70% of the time??

I'm curious as to what "facts" you're using that suggest this??

Please explain your "facts"

[Ratzz]

So then what you r saying is that Minnesota should be favored in this game??

all of this should be more clear after tip-off…*

[upscope]

These are the "facts" you mentioned:

(teams, circumstances, matchups, momentum, etc)

Like momentum for example:

Lakers have won:
-3 of last 4
-11-5 over last 16
-6 of last 7 @ home

Minnesota on the other hand:
-Lost 4 of last 5
-Lost 19 of last 23
-Lost 10 of last 11 on the road

Maybe you should check the dictionary & brush UP on the meaning of "momentum"
-

[innovation]

I am completley lost here. Not saying Minny can't win tonight btw.

Wolves are 2-12 on the road against any team ranked #16 in the league or higher. 14.3%

Lakers are 13-4 against any team ranked lower then #16 at home 76.5%

Considering Houston, GSW, and Utah all lost how are you implying the circumstances, momentum, etc leads you to the Lakers less then a 50% chance at winning.

I think only because it's TNT and the volume I assume on LAL could I see strange things happening.

[upscope]

all of this should be more clear after tip-off…*

We'll this does me no good because unlike you I can't fence ride my bets. I have to actually put them in before tip. I know how you like to wait until halftime & see who is way ahead then claim you bet heavy on that team but I can't do that.

If a 10.5 point dog should actually be favored in the game that would make this quite possibly the biggest positive EV situation in the history of point spread betting. Are you saying that the oddsmakers are that bad that they took a team that should be the underdog (according to u) & actually made them a 10.5 fav??

I don't know bout you but if what you are saying is true....that a 10.5 fav only has a 30% chance of winning outright & 10% chance of actually covering I would literally take a loan out on my house & car & bet it all. It's impossible to get a better spot in gambling based on what u r saying.

Rat.....R U sure that what you r claiming doesn't have just a little bit to do with your hatred & jealousy of the Lakers??

[upscope]

I think u forgot to factor in the fact that the refs are going to cheat for the Lakers & that Stern will rig it for them??
I mean this is what you said after the last three Laker victories so why wouldn't this be the case again tonight?? Maybe,
you might want to re-calculate those %'s based on this new information??

[Ratzz]

These are the "facts" you mentioned:

(teams, circumstances, matchups, momentum, etc)

Like momentum for example:

Lakers have won:
-3 of last 4
-11-5 over last 16
-6 of last 7 @ home

Minnesota on the other hand:
-Lost 4 of last 5
-Lost 19 of last 23
-Lost 10 of last 11 on the road

Maybe you should check the dictionary & brush UP on the meaning of "momentum"
-

this is very impressive detective work.
but there are many manifestations of momentum

but if you are certain i am dead wrong..*
then perhaps lay the points, and place a significant wager on the Lakers*
(Showtime would have to win by 11)

the one mitigating factor in the Lakers favor are the refs.
as long as the Lakers are not eliminated, the League is making much more money. MUCH MORE.
literally MILLIONS MORE VIEWERS.

MILLIONS more VIEWERS = MILLIONS MORE DOLLARS for the NBA and the Lakers.
The Lakers are an employee that makes the company money.*

SPICED REF WARNING: be on the lookout for Lakers to benefit from all/most close calls.
*

[forzuto13]

One of my auto-plays last years was to fade Lakers as double-digit home faves and Celtics on b-2-b road games. They rarely covered but I can't find the numbers anymore.

But I think this is like only the second time this season L.A. has been a dd home fave? Still taking points with Minny, hoping for +10.5 as the hook. I like Pekovic matching up against Howard. I see Howard getting into foul trouble early.

[Seto]

One of my auto-plays last years was to fade Lakers as double-digit home faves and Celtics on b-2-b road games. They rarely covered but I can't find the numbers anymore.

But I think this is like only the second time this season L.A. has been a dd home fave? Still taking points with Minny, hoping for +10.5 as the hook. I like Pekovic matching up against Howard. I see Howard getting into foul trouble early.

No they've been dd faves against the bobcats, magic, so that's at least the 3rd today. I'm probably forgetting 1 or 2 more.

[upscope]

Actually Rat,

I'm not saying the Lakers are going to cover, nor am I even saying that they are going to win outright. I'm not betting the Lakers tonight as i don't lay 10.5 points in an NBA game....EVER!! I'm not betting Minny in this game either. If I did bet this game I would take the 10.5 though fwiw...

What I am saying is that your logic here is unbelievably incorrect & you are letting your hatred & jealousy for the Lakers cloud your judgement. Maybe not in the history of sports betting, but certainly since oddsmakers have become more & more accurate (say last 10 yrs or so), has there EVER been a spot where a 10.5 favorite on the official rotation only had a 10% chance of covering & only a 30% chance of winning outright.

[Seto]

Actually Rat,

I'm not saying the Lakers are going to cover, nor am I even saying that they are going to win outright. I'm not betting the Lakers tonight as i don't lay 10.5 points in an NBA game....EVER!! I'm not betting Minny in this game either. If I did bet this game I would take the 10.5 though fwiw...

What I am saying is that your logic here is unbelievably incorrect & you are letting your hatred & jealousy for the Lakers cloud your judgement. Maybe not in the history of sports betting, but certainly since oddsmakers have become more & more accurate (say last 10 yrs or so), has there EVER been a spot where a 10.5 favorite on the official rotation only had a 10% chance of covering & only a 30% chance of winning outright.

Especially not in a big market like the nba. Maybe in albanian waterpolo....

[Ratzz]

Actually Rat,

I'm not saying the Lakers are going to cover, nor am I even saying that they are going to win outright. I'm not betting the Lakers tonight as i don't lay 10.5 points in an NBA game....EVER!! I'm not betting Minny in this game either. If I did bet this game I would take the 10.5 though fwiw...

What I am saying is that your logic here is unbelievable incorrect & you are letting your hatred & jealousy for the Lakers cloud your judgement. Maybe not in the history of sports betting, but certainly since oddsmakers have become more & more accurate (say last 10 yrs or so), has there EVER been a spot where a 10.5 favorite on the official rotation only had a 10% chance of covering & only a 30% chance of winning outright.

Vegas is raking it in with Laker fan wagers..
this Line is waning, but early it was mostly Laker action.. up over 66%

it is 57% now,*Line down to 10*

you must understand that a Laker-heavy Line satisfies the ego of the ardent Laker fan
(most populous region/ most numerous fans)

you, yourself were quite offended by the claim... demanding to know
if Minny should be favored in this game... and immediately began formulating equations surrounding
my statement.

i do believe that it your devotion,emotions that is clouding judgement in this case.
We will see soon enough*

[Sport_Fish]

Both Utah and Rockets lost yday

I'm certain with those two starting to choke away their playoff hopes, Lakers are starting to get motivated and everyone on that team, not just Kobe, is going to realize all they need to do is win games like this against shitty teams and they'll be in. -10 is still large to cover but no way they lose this one outright.

Their playoff hopes are closer than ever at this time and Lakers won't let it slip.

[JOHON8]

Vegas is raking it in with Laker fan wagers..
this Line is waning, but early it was mostly Laker action.. up over 66%

it is 57% now,*Line down to 10*

you must understand that a Laker-heavy Line satisfies the ego of the ardent Laker fan
(most populous region/ most numerous fans)

you, yourself were quite offended by the claim... demanding to know
if Minny should be favored in this game... and immediately began formulating equations surrounding
my statement.

i do believe that it your devotion,emotions that is clouding judgement in this case.
We will see soon enough*

Where are you getting the 57% from? In these 2 sites it says public is on +10.

http://www.oddsportal.com/basketball...-1410179/#ah;1
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/

[upscope]

U obviously don't understand how odds work.

Let's see if you're true to your claim or if you are just trolling (as usual) & are full of shit.

Since the Lakers "only" have a 30% chance of winning outright then lets make a friendly wager.....I'll even give u the best of it. I'll knock it down in your favor from 30% all the way to 50%.
I'll take the Lakers strait UP u take the T-Wolves strait UP. That's 50% correct?? Even better for you.
Loser doesn't post for the rest of the NBA season so the other doesn't have to read each others bullshit.

I'm giving you a ridiculous overlay here, according to your "facts" that is. Let's see if you truly believe the bullshit you r preaching or (as I suspect) you r just trolling??
I already know you wont accept this ridiculous overlay where you have the best of it & will make some silly excuse to not accept but let's see.....troll

[JOHON8]

upscope there is no reason to make it personal, you wanted to know his facts, he is doing a good job explaining so far.

[BritNBA]

Lakers will cover. There is no doubt in my mind

[Jgjk]

LAKERS WILL WIN TONIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!

IF THEY DONT PLAYOFFS ARE FURTHER AND FURTHER........TONIGHT IS MUST WIN........WILL WIN


now im not sure if MINN covers or not, but lakers WILL WIN.


you guys remember the kobe shot against the suns years ago when nash played there? and kobe shot a 3 in a playoff game, missed, took HIS HAND, smacked the defenders hand.......AND GOT A 3 shot foul called?




EXPECT THIS TONIGHT.....

[upscope]

upscope there is no reason to make it personal, you wanted to know his facts, he is doing a good job explaining so far.

He hasn't explained anything....lol. The personal stage was passed w/ this troll months ago.

[Seto]

Shame hes not a pro, I couldve given him twolves ml +200 for all the action he wants... since its a 70% winner still has ridiculous value at my price