1. 02-21-13 01:09 PM #1
    ashulga
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    Today public will get murdered. Play bulls, under, spurs, and cincii

    Yesterday I was 3/4 with toronto and under, under on brooklyn and over on houston. Only one that missed was Toronto and it was my fault, I approached it like an amateur. When I saw the line move from -1.5 toronto to -1 memphis that's automatic play on memphis. Only time it's not is if there are injuries that made the line move like that. So I can only blame myself for that. Anyways moving on

    Today I like bulls and under, We should get anywhere +3.5 to +4, it will be a defensive game and miami will get pounded on the glass and pushed around inside. My reasoning for this is not that mia is playing b2b, its more that the comeback Miami had to stage to win and that huge 40 point quarter takes a lot out of you (except Lebron). Remember that huge comeback Portland had on Mia couple of weeks ago and even though they still lost at the end, the next game they went out and scored in the 60's next day against not very good NO team. They had nothing left. Also Mia best bench player Ray Allen did play starter minutes yest with 30 so he will surely be feeling it today. So I expect bulls to push them around and grind out a W today and Mia will not be in the shape to go up and down after yesterdays draining comeback. As always Public being heavily on Mia and Over only helps us.

    SA-it will be awfully tough to beat Popovich coached team 3 times in the row and SA problems have been offense against clippers not defense, and having his old team rested and a week to prepare, they will come out and execute in this game. I like them to cover +3.5, maybe we can even get 4. Again public is all over Clippers on this one but not gonna happen

    Finally Cincii- classic reverse line movement, everyone is on uconn and line moves in favor of Cincii. Also highest wagered bball game for college yesterday was Kansas and it hit, today its UCONN and you will almost never take 2 in a row with vegas when it comes to highest wagered games in same sport on b2b days (trust me thats one of the angles I follow most)

    So todays top 3 public plays $$ wise are Mia, Clippers, Uconn so far in that order. I see all 3 going the other way.
    This card Will NOT lose trust me. As always Bol and never follow anyone, however use others input to help you with making the best decision for YOU as it's your $.
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  2. 02-21-13 01:12 PM #2
    ashulga
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    Forgot to add, read that Mia didn't arrive in Chicago until 3 AM last night. Might be nothing for lebron, but its way past Allens, Bosh's, Millers, Lewis, bed time so don't expect much from Bosch, and the bench.
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  3. 02-21-13 01:18 PM #3
    JayOne
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    Love the analysis. I agree with everything except spurs.
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  4. 02-21-13 01:43 PM #4
    ashulga
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    We will see. Good thing is that we don't have to make that play till late. But spurs swept this exact team 4-0 in playoffs last year, I don't see how best coach in bball don't make necessary adjustments and avoid regular season sweep against clippers. Also I believe coaching the all start game and getting a practice or two with clippers best players will serve as learning lesson on how to better attack and defend Paul and griffin.
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  5. 02-21-13 01:55 PM #5
    EVPlus
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    How do you know yesterday's Kansas game had the most money coming in?

    I am leaning Spurs tonight and do agree Clips are the public play.
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  6. 02-21-13 02:01 PM #6
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Agree Spurs look like the play here we saw last night in Houston how hard it is to get 3 in a row and Thunder/Rockets is a bigger mismatch than tonights game. How to attack Griffin lol... guy has one move on the baseline and trails in transition for follow ups and monster dunks. Dude is just an over-rated high light reel!
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  7. 02-21-13 02:05 PM #7
    ashulga
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    Quote Originally Posted by EVPlus View Post
    How do you know yesterday's Kansas game had the most money coming in?

    I am leaning Spurs tonight and do agree Clips are the public play.
    Vegasinsider list top 10 $$ wagers daily. Yesterday it was okc and celtics in nba and Kansas in college. My rule is regardless of how much I like the play if its biggest public fav on the day I just stay away or go other way. Our research will never beat their research, might as well surrender and play the other side. I haven't tracked it but from what I noticed if u just blindly go opposite of top public play of the day you will go 4-3 most weeks if not better.
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  8. 02-21-13 02:07 PM #8
    Jgjk
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashulga View Post
    We will see. Good thing is that we don't have to make that play till late. But spurs swept this exact team 4-0 in playoffs last year, I don't see how best coach in bball don't make necessary adjustments and avoid regular season sweep against clippers. Also I believe coaching the all start game and getting a practice or two with clippers best players will serve as learning lesson on how to better attack and defend Paul and griffin.

    i think the clips will dominate today, tnt game, night game, at home, rested, and they had a few bad losses last week, i think they are ready today
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  9. 02-21-13 02:15 PM #9
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Few bad losses last week Flop city actually finished strong last couple games of road trip and played a game or 2 in L.A. before the break and have been winning since getting healthy.
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  10. 02-21-13 02:17 PM #10
    EVPlus
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashulga View Post
    Vegasinsider list top 10 $$ wagers daily. Yesterday it was okc and celtics in nba and Kansas in college. My rule is regardless of how much I like the play if its biggest public fav on the day I just stay away or go other way. Our research will never beat their research, might as well surrender and play the other side. I haven't tracked it but from what I noticed if u just blindly go opposite of top public play of the day you will go 4-3 most weeks if not better.
    Thanks for the response and bol with your plays tonight.

    I'll look for an edge in college hoops and nhl tonight. No nba action for me on a small card.
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  11. 02-21-13 02:17 PM #11
    Jgjk
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Few bad losses last week Flop city actually finished strong last couple games of road trip and played a game or 2 in L.A. before the break and have been winning since getting healthy.

    meant they didnt cover
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  12. 02-21-13 02:53 PM #12
    ashulga
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Agree Spurs look like the play here we saw last night in Houston how hard it is to get 3 in a row and Thunder/Rockets is a bigger mismatch than tonights game. How to attack Griffin lol... guy has one move on the baseline and trails in transition for follow ups and monster dunks. Dude is just an over-rated high light reel!
    Spurs are just regular season machine. Remember when Duncan, Parker, ginobli and Jackson I believe sat out in Mia and they still almost won, Or bulls in Chicago??? That's the deepest team in the nba and unless they are way off from a 3 today I think they win this game. And you know popovich will make Jordan and griffin shoot ft s a ton and prove they can make them. He will intentionally foul more than anyone. That's why I can't play over/under this game
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  13. 02-21-13 02:55 PM #13
    winslow9675
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    I could not agree more.. Fade the Public to in the NBA..
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  14. 02-21-13 03:05 PM #14
    layout4payout
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    i'm with ya on the spurs. i took heat ml though. you think bulls win straight up?
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  15. 02-21-13 03:17 PM #15
    ashulga
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    I would never lay money line in any game unless you parlay. It's losing proposition in my opinion. To lay money line at 3 to 3.5 you had to buy 3-3.5 Pts. Would you not rather take bulls +7 at home then? I would all day especially knowing they always play close. So I guess my point is I would never by Pts, maybe hook that's it and yes I can see bulls winning. Bulls always get fired up for heat, and heat only seem to get fired up for okc. I guess they just don't view them as a threat.
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  16. 02-21-13 03:37 PM #16
    ashulga
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    Going back to last year bulls are 2-0 at home SU against Miami and 3-2 SU overall last 5 past two years. So 3.5-4 hold ton of value
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  17. 02-21-13 03:45 PM #17
    JayOne
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    I think I'm taking both home teams tonight.
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  18. 02-21-13 03:54 PM #18
    sav10rself
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    Great write up, with you on Spurs and Cinci. I like your argument against the Heat but I just find it hard betting against Lebron. BOL bro.
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  19. 02-21-13 04:04 PM #19
    ashulga
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    Quote Originally Posted by sav10rself View Post
    Great write up, with you on Spurs and Cinci. I like your argument against the Heat but I just find it hard betting against Lebron. BOL bro.
    Thanks you too. Kwahi Leonard actually is a late scratch tonight with knee issue, I am hoping we get another .5-1pt for his absense.
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  20. 02-21-13 04:19 PM #20
    sav10rself
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashulga View Post
    Thanks you too. Kwahi Leonard actually is a late scratch tonight with knee issue, I am hoping we get another .5-1pt for his absense.
    Hmm, would be nice. Do you like O/U 16 threes for the Spurs/Clips game or would you stay away?
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  21. 02-21-13 04:22 PM #21
    ashulga
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    Quote Originally Posted by sav10rself View Post
    Hmm, would be nice. Do you like O/U 16 threes for the Spurs/Clips game or would you stay away?
    I wouldn't touch it.
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  22. 02-21-13 04:32 PM #22
    reppin_the_847
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    That might be true, but don't these guys often party this late too? lol. J/K tho I like the angle completely. Been saying it for since yesterday. Bulls & UNDER seem pretty solid. Public is hammering Miami.

    Quote Originally Posted by ashulga View Post
    Forgot to add, read that Mia didn't arrive in Chicago until 3 AM last night. Might be nothing for lebron, but its way past Allens, Bosh's, Millers, Lewis, bed time so don't expect much from Bosch, and the bench.
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  23. 02-21-13 04:43 PM #23
    Pivotpoint
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    Ashulga, good points. I'm all over the Bulls + 3 1/2. Contemplating adding another unit to that position. I lean towards the over, but doubt I play. I see a tight game with a scoring range between 192-195. Hate sweating totals. Gl
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  24. 02-21-13 05:03 PM #24
    Iw1nBets
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    BOL
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  25. 02-21-13 05:11 PM #25
    BossSwagger
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    Im playing it that way as well. G/L
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  26. 02-21-13 05:23 PM #26
    ashulga
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pivotpoint View Post
    Ashulga, good points. I'm all over the Bulls + 3 1/2. Contemplating adding another unit to that position. I lean towards the over, but doubt I play. I see a tight game with a scoring range between 192-195. Hate sweating totals. Gl
    I also like lots of trends that point to under so I feel confident in that play. GL
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  27. 02-21-13 05:27 PM #27
    ashulga
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    I typically don't play this many games in one day but I am going with
    Bulls 1u +3.5
    Under 1u 186
    Cinci 1u pk
    Parlay all 3 .5 unit
    BOL
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  28. 02-21-13 06:21 PM #28
    layout4payout
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashulga View Post
    I would never lay money line in any game unless you parlay. It's losing proposition in my opinion. To lay money line at 3 to 3.5 you had to buy 3-3.5 Pts. Would you not rather take bulls +7 at home then? I would all day especially knowing they always play close. So I guess my point is I would never by Pts, maybe hook that's it and yes I can see bulls winning. Bulls always get fired up for heat, and heat only seem to get fired up for okc. I guess they just don't view them as a threat.
    i just hate taking the spread and then missing a cover by a point or 2. rather risk a little more and not have to worry about it, at least in this case. yea, i guess i could have taken bulls at +7, but i feel more confident taking the better team. bulls haven't impressed me at all, and heinrich is out again. good luck.
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  29. 02-21-13 09:13 PM #29
    reppin_the_847
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    This pains me greatly to say it, but unless the Bulls go on a 11-0 run or something, the Public was right tonight with Miami.
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  30. 02-21-13 09:14 PM #30
    bjb7223
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    the public is not on Miami, the public is on Lebron James
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  31. 02-21-13 09:16 PM #31
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Starting to worry a little on my Spurs bet. Vegas gonna take one in the crapper in Bulls game and driving the line up in Spurs game to even out the action it looks like!
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  32. 02-21-13 09:33 PM #32
    vasilli07
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    The arriving late angle can't be used on a young team who got a long rest and is just playing their 2nd game in 2 days. Maybe if they are playing their 4th or 5th game, maybe that will start affect them.
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  33. 02-21-13 10:01 PM #33
    Brent13081
    Fading the home team(Minnesota)
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    The Chicago bulls are absolute TRASH!!! The bums play like there in college Big 10 fukkin ball run the shot clock down and get a horrible shot... pathetic team without rose-- PATHETIC!
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  34. 02-21-13 10:52 PM #34
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Yeah Bulls looked like dogshit tonight!! Wish I had pulled trigger on Miami lean ... oh well hopefully Spurs hang! Said it last night don't fade Miami and Bron right now they are HOT. Pub $$ was part of the reason that scared me off but that's just a stupid angle with this team right now. The pub $ will ALWAYS be on them just ride them why they are hot.
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  35. 02-22-13 09:19 AM #35
    ashulga
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Yeah Bulls looked like dogshit tonight!! Wish I had pulled trigger on Miami lean ... oh well hopefully Spurs hang! Said it last night don't fade Miami and Bron right now they are HOT. Pub $$ was part of the reason that scared me off but that's just a stupid angle with this team right now. The pub $ will ALWAYS be on them just ride them why they are hot.
    Thankfully spurs pulled through, but honestly Mia played liked shit and if bulls showed up at all they could have and should have won. Mia barely got to 86 Pts with couple of garbage 3 s at the end, it's just who would have thought bulls can't even get to 80 at home. As I said earlier only Lebron showed up. What is everybody impressed by bosh s 12 Pts 4 reb, or 3 Pts from Allen or 17 from wade? They all played bad Lebron just made plays when it mattered but if bulls weren't such dog sh*t at home this season they should have easily won that game
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