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Picks from Mexico 19-feb-2013 :)
ATS 38-27
Totals 23-15
Ok after some time off let´s start to take a look at today´s card:
I will treat today´s games as if were start of the season, long rest for everyone and they may come rusty.
Toronto at Wizards -3: Wizards are on top pf many trends ATS, Toronto plays well ATS on the road and is playing better overall lately, I see this point being decided by a bucket, too close to call, pass.
Bobcats at Magic -4.5: Both teams are awful ATS and SU, I don´t see any edge here to bak someone , where I see a good value here is on totals, with many days off and teams struggling to score lately I see this game going way under 197.5, my lean UNder 197.5.
Bucks at Nets -4.5: Bucks own a nice 55.6% ATS as road dog, and 55.9% in conference Games, on the other hand Nets play a great 55.6% ATS after a win, I see this game being very close to the line ,I prefer another games.
Memphis at Pistons +2: while Memphis is playing decents 61.5% ATS as road fav, 68.4% in non conference games, Detroit plays a nice 57.1% ATS as home dog, I see this game very close too, though I see a good value on the totals, with a decent pace and off %eff, I see this game being close to 194 pts, my lean Over 187.5.
Bulls at Hornets -1.5: Bulls on the road for me is back them or no play, I don´t feel right fading NO here neither, besides it´s a pretty damm close game that I would not be surprised seeing it going OT. Pass.
Celtics at Denver -8.5: Boston plays a poor 38.5 ATS as road dog, while Denver is in a pretty nice spot here IMO, riding a 3 game losing streak, again at home where they play a nice 66.7% ATS as home fav, My lean here Denver -8.5.
Warriors at Jazz -3.5: This should be the right spot to back GState and watch them going back to track after dropping 5 straight, problem here is they face a pretty good team at home, Utah plays 61.5% ATS at home, this is another game too close to call, pass.
Spurs at Sacramento +9: Well Spurs is one of the best teams ATS and Su in the league, Sacramento? they simply suck at this trend, 37.5% ATS after a loss, 42.9% as a home dog, I see Spurs taking off from tip off and never looking back, My lean Spurs -9.
Suns at Portland -6.5: Nice spot here to back Portland, riding a 5 game losing streak, back at home where it´s really difficult to play for opposite teams, only fact that concerns me here is will they cover?, Portland surprisingly is playing a poor 37.5% as home fav ATS, have to think about it more, my lean Portland -6.5.
Will be back later to post final plays.
GLTA
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Originally Posted by Italy
