1. 02-11-13 02:56 AM #1
    cockblocker
    cockblocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-09
    Posts: 1,268
    Betpoints: 19

    Favs 20-9 the past 4 days.

    Play all the dogs and make a nice profit.

    I doubt favs clean up 5 nights in row.

    Lots of nice dogs that probably win straight up.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 02-11-13 03:00 AM #2
    mysterio619
    mysterio619's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-28-12
    Posts: 452
    Betpoints: 0

    Gambler's Fallacy
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 02-11-13 05:09 AM #3
    cockblocker
    cockblocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-09
    Posts: 1,268
    Betpoints: 19

    Quote Originally Posted by mysterio619 View Post
    Gambler's Fallacy
    That has nothing to do with with favs covering against Vegas's numbers.

    This is'nt flipping a coin. You'll never see favs constantly covering at the rate this week.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 02-11-13 05:12 AM #4
    jubjub
    jubjub's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-12
    Posts: 150
    Betpoints: 3152

    No you're wrong. Gambler's fallacy is exactly your train of thought. Flipping coins was just an example. Get on Pacers tomorrow
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 02-11-13 05:15 AM #5
    cockblocker
    cockblocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-09
    Posts: 1,268
    Betpoints: 19

    Quote Originally Posted by jubjub View Post
    No you're wrong. Gambler's fallacy is exactly your train of thought. Flipping coins was just an example. Get on Pacers tomorrow
    I just checked this months ats record is 48-31, at this rate you can plays favs every night and win.

    Get on Wolves, Wizards and Hornets.
    Last edited by cockblocker; 02-11-13 at 05:21 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 02-11-13 08:34 AM #6
    R.P. McMurphy
    Update your status
    R.P. McMurphy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-15-12
    Posts: 9,654
    Betpoints: 175

    Typically it's black Monday for faves. I would expect a few of these that are getting hammered at a 70/80% clip to lose or not cover tonight.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 02-11-13 12:07 PM #7
    ashulga
    ashulga's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-16-12
    Posts: 247
    Betpoints: 0

    Yea I expect heavy dog day either today or tomm for sure. That why I'm either playing dogs or totals next couple of days. Not even considering any of the favs.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 02-11-13 12:07 PM #8
    ashulga
    ashulga's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-16-12
    Posts: 247
    Betpoints: 0

    Also been lots of overs as well so my totals are all under leans
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 02-11-13 12:43 PM #9
    BigDofBA
    BigDofBA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-30-09
    Posts: 19,311
    Betpoints: 2011

    Favorites cover too. It doesn't make one sharp to only play dogs.

    Also, what happened the previous four days has nothing to do with today.

    "Favs won't cover five days in a row?"

    Then why did they cover four days in a row? I wonder how many people took all dogs yesterday thinking Favs wouldn't cover four days in a row.

    This logic is horrible. Gambling is streaky. It will even out over time but to make a wager because you think it's due is a losing strategy.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 02-11-13 12:58 PM #10
    ashulga
    ashulga's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-16-12
    Posts: 247
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    Favorites cover too. It doesn't make one sharp to only play dogs.

    Also, what happened the previous four days has nothing to do with today.


    "Favs won't cover five days in a row?"

    Then why did they cover four days in a row? I wonder how many people took all dogs yesterday thinking Favs wouldn't cover four days in a row.

    This logic is horrible. Gambling is streaky. It will even out over time but to make a wager because you think it's due is a losing strategy.
    You are saying it as that's only angle I take. No it's just one of the hundred things I evaluate when making a play and I just put myself in the best possible situation to win. I consider that, wave theory, streaks, b2b, ref assignments, home/away, injuries, public plays, line movement, etc... And after I evaluate all that + more I pick an make best plays on the board that match all my criteria. You have to be an idiot to just use that theory to make a play. I go as in depth as anyone on these boards before I make my picks.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 02-11-13 12:59 PM #11
    dalogester
    dalogester's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-02-13
    Posts: 1,088
    Betpoints: 416

    I wonder if this is why I have been winning the last 4 days or so... ugh oh maybe I should quit while im ahead LOL
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 02-11-13 08:15 PM #12
    cockblocker
    cockblocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-09
    Posts: 1,268
    Betpoints: 19

    Just as I thought and the only fav I played, Clippers cashed big.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 02-11-13 08:33 PM #13
    Capnick
    Capnick's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-05-13
    Posts: 831
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by cockblocker View Post
    Play all the dogs and make a nice profit.

    I doubt favs clean up 5 nights in row.

    Lots of nice dogs that probably win straight up.
    Nice call bro, hope you cleaned up!!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 02-11-13 08:37 PM #14
    R.P. McMurphy
    Update your status
    R.P. McMurphy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-15-12
    Posts: 9,654
    Betpoints: 175

    Like I said in post #6 it's Black Monday and squares crumble lolol. Maybe it's just coincidence that Monday is closing day of the week for most books!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 02-11-13 09:21 PM #15
    R.P. McMurphy
    Update your status
    R.P. McMurphy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-15-12
    Posts: 9,654
    Betpoints: 175

    Someone from Vegas just made the call to Dallas. "Okay we got what we needed you can cover and beat these scrub p*ssies now".
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | NBA Basketball Betting | Next Thread »