I'm here to address long term profitability in the betting world - and to state the obvious, you can't beat the books unless your number is better than theirs. Betting on emotion, feelings, trends, momentum, and homerism is all fine and dandy for the recreational bettor, but to have a shot at being profitable long term (which is what I think most of us want), you have to come up with your own numbers.

I have seen some beautiful matchup analysis on here from time to time, but very little discussion on how the mismatches/advantages translate into points. Exactly how many points should the free-throw deficient team be compensated to arrive at a fair line? What is the size advantage worth to a team? How many points should a team be given if they are playing on a back to back? On the road? The list goes on.

Everyone loves to come on here and tout picks, troll, etc and focus on the short term. But you are always playing a losing game if you don't come up with your own numbers and hammer the games where there are discrepancies.