[RabidGolfer]

I'm taking Denver -5.5.

Denver is one of the highest scoring teams in the league recently, averaging over 109 pts per game over their last 10 games, and the Pacers are one of the lowest. The Pacers also have the 2nd best defense in the league, and that could be a problem for Denver who has had an issue with too many turnovers, but I think the 5.5 points should be a pretty easy cover for them at home based on their recent performance. Would love to hear discussion if you think differently.

[GoeGurt]

i like how u liken the nuggs n fadden the kings haha after that big victory for youh

[nicktran808]

I'm a fan of both teams for some silly reasons (DEN b/c I'm a huge Broncos fan, IND because they've been paying me well when I bet on them and they actually play D in the NBA), but I completely agree with your brief analysis.

Denver's home advantage is HUGE. Great packed venue, high altitude, and the god dam airport is an Illuminati/Freemason masterpiece (not srs) that is so far away from downtown Denver (flew through Denver recently, had no idea where the city actually was)

[HardCore]

Damn so the airport shit is true lol

[nicktran808]

Flew in from Hawaii to Denver, was on the left side of the plane and did not see sh*t
Flew from Denver to Omaha, was also on the left side and still did not see sh*t

[HardCore]

Lol oh shit

[RabidGolfer]

i like how u liken the nuggs n fadden the kings haha after that big victory for youh

Exactly! Hey, Denver's hot right now, so might as well ride the train, especially during home games. The books will likely adjust after a while, but I think they're lagging a little. I wouldn't play this game if the spread was -8, but I think 5 is reasonable.

[HardCore]

Yea and this is ind's last road gm n we all know what that means

[Kazzlar]

Was leaning on this one. Now im on board, gonna play 1 unit and see how it goes.

[hougigo]

I bought points... but watch them win by 2

[Gamble32jn]

yea i flew to denver a bunch an forgot that it as about 27 miles to the center of denver last time i went fom dec 29th to the 31st..lol. Was like a couple years since i been but i got tickets to the Broncos game sitting 6th row off the 50 yard line.

[RabidGolfer]

I bought points... but watch them win by 2

Nah, if you have Denver -3 I think you'll be golden. I wish I had bought the 1/2 point down to -5, but my mobile app didn't allow it and I wanted to place the bet on the spot in case it moved to -6. Time will tell if that was a bad idea. Hoping for a 10 point+ win by Denver.

[Shipcity]

Heres a great writeup from a member on covers

Indiana Pacers +as many as we can get
Indiana Pacers ML

Denver plays at the fastest pace in the NBA. Uptempo. Rebound, long outlet, and go. They live and die with transition offense. When they do have to run halfcourt offense they are extremely average. I'd actually say bad. They can run pick n roll but they aren't great at it. Lawson isn't a great shooter off the dribble and their bigs can't hit midrange jumpers so it makes the pick n roll/pick n pop easy to defend. Pretty much if they don't score on the break they space the floor and run isolations. They don't have creative sets. When in the halfcourt they aren't a great ball movement team or a great cutting team. They have REC BALL shot selection. They are bailed out frequently by their offensive rebounding. They are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA. Often times those garbage half-court possessions they have after the defense stops their fast break are bailed out because they get a rebound and a putback. This works against most teams because:
A) Most teams love to try to run with the Nuggets and they can't. They wear down.
B) They can't handle Denver on the boards.

The Nuggets recent history:
They beat OKC at home in overtime.
They blewout the Rockets in Houston. (Were up 20+ in 4th)
They destroyed the 2nd worst team in the NBA (Kings).

So they beat the team with the best record in the NBA and then had 2 blowouts. I would guess they are feelin pretty cocky right about now.

In those 2 blowouts Denver had their best back to back defensive performances of the season from a point per possession(PPP) standpoint.
It is extremely rare for Denver to hold an opponent under 1 PPP. They held Houston to .91 PPP and the Kings to .89 PPP.

This is important because Denver is a pretty garbage defensive team. They don't rotate well, their entire focus is on scoring, and they frequently go EXTREMELY small thanks to George Karl's obsession with small ball. I can almost guarentee they won't bring the same defensive intensity they brought the last 2 games. A regression back to the mean is in order here.

Indiana is coming off 2 road losses in 2 of the toughest arenas in the NBA to play in(Portland, Salt Lake City). In contrast to Denver, Indiana has played it's 2 worst back to back defensive performances of the season. They allowed Portland 1.1 PPP, and the Jazz 1.17 PPP. Where as Denver sucks defensively, Indiana is the BEST in the league in defensive efficiency (PPP). It is extremely rare that Indiana allows a team to score over 1 PPP on offense. They are talking about it too. If you read any of their interviews they are all talking about how bad their defense has been and that they are going to step it up defensively in this game.

Indiana is also the SLOWEST team in the NBA. Their offense philosophy is to slow it down as much as possible. They do have creative sets. They do have good ball movement and solid halfcourt offense. They have 2 post presences that they can go to for easy buckets (David West, Hibbert). Their entire philosophy is based on pounding the paint, and taking good shots so they can have time to set up their defense. They like to muck up games and make them ugly. They are also REALLY good rebounding the ball. They are 7th in the NBA in defensive rebounding %. They are 4th in offensive rebounding %. With Hibbert, West, Mahimi, and Hansbrough they will be able to nullify the offensive rebounding advantage that Denver has over most teams. Denver just so happens to be #21 defensively defending post up play and number #28 defensively defending spot up shooters (because they suck at rotating).

In addition to being the best overall defense in the NBA and playing at the slowest pace, Indiana has 1 huge advantage. They are number 1 transition defense, and number 7 in isolation defense. Hill, George, and Stephenson are ELITE perimeter defenders and they bring the defense all game long.

The Pepsi Center is traditionally a very tough arena to play in for a couple of reasons.
1) The fans always show out. they are rowdy and loud.
2) The altitude. Teams usually struggle to get their wind. Especially at the pace Denver plays at.
3) Teams usually get in reeeally late THE NIGHT BEFORE. The actual arena is about a 45 minutes drive from the airport depending on the weather. Because of this teams don't usually have the time required for their lungs to adapt.

Indiana has a very strong situational advantage here. As I mentioned before they just played at 2 even louder and rowdier arenas. The Pepsi Center will be a walk in the park for them after playing in the Rose Garden and Energy Solutions Arena. They played in Utah (2nd highest altitude in the NBA) 2 nights ago and then flew to Denver after the game. They have been in Denver for almost 2 days. Salt Lake City is only 1000 feet lower than Denver. This time is more than enough for their lungs to get acclimated and this will negate on of the biggest home court advantages for Denver.

Indiana is going to slow the pace considerably. They will make Denver play a grind it out half-court game which they will epically fail at. They are going to keep the Nuggets off the glass. From listening to their players talking they seem very motivated to get this win. They have only lost 3 games in a row ONCE this year. In that third game they lost to abuzzer beater at Minnesota.

Whatever line I get +the points will be a big play. I'll count it as 3 wins or 3 losses. Moneyline will be a normal play.

If anyone wants to know where I get my stats I use Synergy Sports. Most of my plays come from what I see because I watch almost every game in the NBA. The PPP stats are my own. I have my own database with my own formula that I update after the games every night.

[emriaz]

Wouldn't the under be the safer play? Especially since the pacers seem to have something to prove tonight After losing two in a row

[og4667]

looks good rabid...last game of the 4 game west coast road trip...they will get tired at some point.

[RabidGolfer]

That dude took a lot of time to write that up. I'm impressed. I hope he's wrong, and I can't see how three days would be enough become acclimated with altitude, but we'll see. I also don't agree with his "regression to the mean" theory. If Denver is suddenly playing better defense, that's not a reason to assume they'll all of a sudden revert. If anything, I would think they're working on improving and it's paying off. Same goes for Indiana. If they're suddenly playing poor defense, who's to say they'll suddenly snap back, especially when they're fatigued and playing in a tough arena at elevation? This will be a fun one to watch.

[RabidGolfer]

Wouldn't the under be the safer play? Especially since the pacers seem to have something to prove tonight After losing two in a row

I don't consider the under very safe in this game as Denver has been scoring like crazy recently. I have the total at 194, but if Indiana puts up their average of 90 pts and Denver puts up their recent average of 110 or so, you're at 200 really quick. It's likely to be a lower scoring game, but I def think Denver clears 100 pts. That's why I don't like playing totals. I'm horrible at handicapping them. ha!

[Melda]

I love Denver to win here straight up at least... so I teased it to -.5 and GS to +5 when it was a pick em... Think that teaser cashes tonight.

[Melda]

Should have done the same RabidGolfer.... My teasers are on POINT.

[RabidGolfer]

Should have done the same RabidGolfer.... My teasers are on POINT.

Maybe so. Good job