[HardCore]

before you'all get ready to bash my head in about the dumb ass shit i just said. Lets be honest as bad as miami is theyre not losing 3 straight especially with that 3rd being against the kings...now with that being said if the line is more than 4 1/2 IM TAKING THE KINGS but im hoping its at like 3 but thats too easy i think the books know miami rolls here and will juice the lines because the public will pound miami regardless...or will they miami has been burning public/and sharp money as of late. What do you'all think?

[sando]

Line will definitely be more than -4.5 mate. Your looking at minimum Miami -6, probably Miami -7 to -8, just my opinion.

[HardCore]

your right and thats what im afraid of cause that means kings are the play but but i dont play dogs that i no wont win and we all know miami wont lose 3 straight gms..at least not this late in the season...i hope

[Nius]

Yes, the spread is actually -7 or -8.

[troidatoi12]

+1 for under. Miami is 7-7 on road, Portland is 12-4 at home. Heat haven't even been playing that well recently, think Blazers is the best choice.

Last 5 games:
Heat @ Magic W 112-110 OT (Heat -9.5) Over 194.5 without OT
Mavericks @ Heat W 119-109 OT (Heat -10.5) Made the over w/ OT
Bulls @ Heat L 96-89 (Heat -7.5) Under 189.5
Wizards @ Heat W 99-71 (Heat - 13.5) Under 191.5
Heat @ Pacers L 87-77 (Heat -2) Under 187

3-2 last 5 games, didn't make the cover 4 times of the 5. Made the under 3 times out of 5, 4 times if they didn't go into OT with Mavs.

Last 5 away games:
@ Bobcats W 105-92 (-9) under 200
@ Pistons L 109-99 (-6) over 188.5
@ Bucks L 104-85 (-4.5) under 199.5
@ Magic W 112-110 OT (Heat -9.5) Over 194.5 without OT
@ Pacers L 87-77 (Heat -2) Under 187

2-3 last 5 away games beating teams like Magic and Bobcats lol, did not cover 4 out of 5 times. 3 unders out of 5.

Last 5 games Portland has beaten Knicks, Grizzlies, Timberwolves and Magic. I take Portland +3.5 right now and the under.

This was made on Jan 10th for the Heat @ Blazers game in a different thread but the data should add why the line shouldn't go any higher than -/+6. Add a loss to Blazers and not covering the over @199.5, i'm expecting Heat -6 to be the line and the total to be ~185. Anything -5 and below should be an auto-grab.

I expect the Heat to come playing hard this game though after going 5-5 in their last 10. They also hang around the .500 range for road games so this game should be a win, whether they cover or not is different. I say parlay the Heat ML with something else for free bonus money

[sando]

Yes, the spread is actually -7 or -8.

The line hasn't been released yet??

[Nius]

It has been released in some overseas books. Mostly vegas releases the same.

[BCC585]

Miami is the sketchiest team to bet on

[HardCore]

I'm not playing kings+7 simply cause It's the kings and they just blew a 17point lead to the assvricks on thu so I'm just ginna tease Miami to -2/-3 with my bal+17