[gojetsgomoxies]

i'm gonna track bets on teams that have the best and worst home/road differentials in power ratings. i guess one problem is it's impossible to know what a team is neutral (i.e. how much of a great HFA statistically is great home play vs. terrible road play)

anyway, going to start tonight and because it's a system it's no big deal to pick the plays after the game has started. i'm going to go with top 5 and bottom 5 HFA teams from teamrankings.com new rankings (they have old and new. not sure of the difference. pretty similar ratings).

if two teams qualify and are inconsistent, no play. if two teams qualify and enhance each other, then 3 units. otherwise, 1 unit. -106 for each.

the ratings show best HFA miami, denver, portland, utah, detroit... worst HFA NOH, clev, chicago, orlando, phil..... so i'll be playing these teams either way (miami relatively very strong at home. very weak on road. relatively though)

picks in a second

[gojetsgomoxies]

so we'd play

miami 1 unit
utah 1 unit
noh 1 unit
philadelphia 1 unit
toronto 1 unit (portland being bad on the road)
sacramento 1 unit (cleveland bad at home)
chicago 3 units (chicago good on road, orlando bad at home)

just going to go by what teamrankings.com says the final spread was.

hope this works!! something i've wanted to do for awhile and was making it too complex in my mind. i hadn't looked at teams or scores before i decided to start doing it today. obviously though chicago/orlando looks pretty good right now.

should be fairly easy to update as it's a system. can't backtest though easily as it uses teamrankings.com power ratings.

[innovation]

You playing ats or SU. The books already adjust lines for certain home teams.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i'm playing ATS....

i know they adjust for better/worse home/road teams but do they adjust properly?

really you could argue the bookies adjust for almost any type of system you can come up with.

i see from the thread that the system lost the bulls bet anyway, so a rough start.