1. 11-15-06 09:34 PM #1
    LineHunter
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    nba totals frequency

    I read that the probabilty of the total falling on any number near the spread (within 3 of the spread mid-point) is 3.4%

    can anyone confirm this or give me a reference to other analysis of this?
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  2. 11-17-06 12:43 PM #2
    Ganchrow
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    Quote Originally Posted by LineHunter
    I read that the probabilty of the total falling on any number near the spread (within 3 of the spread mid-point) is 3.4%

    can anyone confirm this or give me a reference to other analysis of this?
    I'm not sure I understand your question here.

    "The probability of the total falling ... within 3 of the spread mid-point .... "

    In the NBA, the spread and total have entirely different orders of magnitude. Perhaps you could give a specific example to better illustrate your question?
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  3. 11-17-06 01:50 PM #3
    TLD
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    I interpreted the question to mean, “If an NBA total is about 175 (various books have it from 174-176, but the consensus or midpoint of the range is about 175) is it true that there is about a 3.4% chance it’ll land 172, a 3.4% chance it’ll land 173, and so on for all numbers within 3 of 175?”
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  4. 11-17-06 03:04 PM #4
    RickySteve
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    3.4% is way too high.
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  5. 11-17-06 03:20 PM #5
    David
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    A half point is worth about 5 cents according to the drop downs at Pinnacle.
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  6. 11-17-06 05:37 PM #6
    Ganchrow
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    I'll post NBA side and total frequencies in the Basketball forum this weekend.
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  7. 11-17-06 05:37 PM #7
    Jay Edgar
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    I was hoping that this thread might lead us there.
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  8. 11-17-06 07:40 PM #8
    Hoja Verdes
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    Are you trying to bet both sides with a 3 point middle?
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