[Jay Edgar]

Quick explanation:

I keep weighted power ratings which are updated daily and put into a formula (that I'm trying to improve all the time) to get an estimated moneyline on each game. Expressing that moneyline in terms of each team's chances to win (example, a -150 favorite has a 60.0% chance to win), I compare my ML with the real ML. (To get the real ML I average Pinny's 2 moneylines -- example, a 130/140 ML says the favorite is 57.43% likely to win, which translates to a shade above ML -135).

The recordkeeping is based on the closing Pinny ML as best I can track it. I compare that with my ML. So if it closes at Pinny at that 130/140 and I give that favorite only a 51.6% chance to win, then ML-OFF system pick is the dog at a strength of 5.8% (57.43 minus 51.60), which is rounded to 6.

For the first half-month of the season, if we played every team where the ML-OFF was 5% or more, we'd have 71 plays, which went 31-40 straight up and 41-30 ATS and made a profit either way.

Again in this Block I, as in the testing I did with last year's results, the concept of plays being "too good" -- or my ML being "too far off" -- reared its head. So far in 2006-07, at 15% ML-OFF or higher, the results take a turn for the worse. Just playing the plays in the 5%-15% range would have gone 26-29 SU for +23.8 units, with ATS plays 34-21 (or about +11 units if all plays were 1 unit and juice was -110.)

This is promising, although on a small sample. It's a less-than-sexy approach in that you are asked to be on almost every big dog, and on a lot of unappealing teams. For example, so far it's featured these teams most:

POR 9x
MEM 7x
NY 6x
CHA, BOS 5x
ATL 4x

Also, because the power ratings are based on the last 10 games, these early results are still somewhat connected (on a decreasing basis) to part of last year's results. (I divided last season into 10 chunks to make up the "last 10 games" while the system gets started.) In the next couple of weeks the ratings will get to be all about this year.

Next post will have the summary, and the third post the daily data.

[Jay Edgar]

ALL GAMES WHERE EDGAR ML IS OFF FROM PINNY CLOSING ML BY 5% OR MORE
SU 31-40, +22.68 Units
ATS 41-30, .585
=====================================

SUBSETS
5% -10% Off
SU 16-19, +12.99 Units
ATS 19-16, .543

10% - 15% Off
SU 10-10, +10.85 Units
ATS 15-5, .750

15% - 20% Off
SU 3-6, -1.96 Units
ATS 4-5, .444

More Than 20% Off
SU 2-5, +0.80 Units
ATS 3-4, .428

[Jay Edgar]

DATE TEAM GAP LINE ATSresult MLresult
31-Oct LAX 34 8.0 WIN 315

1-Nov LAX 22 7.0 WIN 265
1-Nov SAC 16 6.0 LOSS -100
1-Nov UTH 16 1.0 WIN 101
1-Nov MEM 13 -5.0 LOSS -213
1-Nov POR 6 8.5 WIN 360
1-Nov ORL 5 1.5 WIN 101
1-Nov NO 5 3.0 WIN 142

3-Nov POR 13 9.5 LOSS -100
3-Nov MEM 12 -4.0 WIN 100
3-Nov PHI 8 5.0 WIN 193
3-Nov UTH 6 6.5 WIN 248
3-Nov ATL 5 -3.0 WIN 100

4-Nov NYK 13 3.5 LOSS -100
4-Nov MEM 11 8.0 LOSS -100
4-Nov CHA 11 4.0 WIN 165
4-Nov POR 8 3.5 WIN 148
4-Nov BOS 7 7.5 WIN -100

5-Nov TOR 17 6.5 LOSS -100
5-Nov PHI 15 2.5 WIN 124
5-Nov ATL 13 3.0 WIN 140
5-Nov NO 6 -1.0 WIN 100
5-Nov LAX 5 1.5 LOSS -100

6-Nov NY 16 6.5 LOSS -100
6-Nov POR 11 11.0 LOSS -100
6-Nov GS 11 9.5 WIN 420
6-Nov MIL 6 6.0 LOSS -100
6-Nov DET 6 4.5 WIN -100

7-Nov MEM 23 4.5 LOSS -100
7-Nov MIN 11 8.0 WIN -100
7-Nov ATL 10 10.5 WIN 505
7-Nov SEA 9 5.5 WIN -100
7-Nov PHI 8 4.5 LOSS -100

8-Nov POR 15 5.0 WIN 179
8-Nov SEA 14 6.0 WIN -100
8-Nov NY 8 10.5 WIN 510
8-Nov LAC 8 -2.5 WIN 100
8-Nov CHA 7 5.0 WIN -100
8-Nov IND 5 5.5 LOSS -100

10-Nov DET 12 5.5 WIN 200
10-Nov NY 12 10.5 WIN -100
10-Nov BOS 8 3.0 LOSS -100
10-Nov POR 7 2.5 WIN 126
10-Nov PHI 7 -2.0 LOSS -130
10-Nov NJ 6 -4.0 LOSS -172
10-Nov ORL 5 5.0 LOSS -100

11-Nov MEM 24 11.0 WIN -100
11-Nov NY 15 13.0 WIN -100
11-Nov BOS 13 9.5 WIN -100
11-Nov MIL 8 0.0 LOSS -107
11-Nov DET 6 3.0 LOSS -100
11-Nov IND 5 6.5 LOSS -100
11-Nov ORL 5 5.0 WIN 187

12-Nov POR 27 5.5 LOSS -100
12-Nov CHA 21 4.0 LOSS -100
12-Nov MEM 17 9.0 LOSS -100
12-Nov TOR 6 7.0 LOSS -100
12-Nov NJ 5 5.5 WIN 199

13-Nov NY 25 5.0 LOSS -100
13-Nov BOS 5 0.0 LOSS -108

14-Nov POR 19 8.5 LOSS -100
14-Nov UTH 14 1.0 WIN 105
14-Nov ATL 12 -1.0 WIN 100
14-Nov HOU 8 -1.5 LOSS -118
14-Nov CHI 7 4.0 LOSS -100
14-Nov CHA 6 7.0 LOSS -100

15-Nov POR 16 11.0 LOSS -100
15-Nov NY 14 3.0 WIN 138
15-Nov MEM 11 8.5 WIN -100
15-Nov NOK 10 8.0 WIN 325
15-Nov CHA 9 12.0 WIN 815
15-Nov BOS 8 1.5 WIN 105

[moses millsap]

Looks like that too good to be true category of 20% plus discrepancy is following in the same pattern you suggested it did last year. Good stuff JE.

[isetcap]

I find the sexiest teams to be the ones that make me money!

Spectacular information, Jay.

[Jay Edgar]

REPORT ON SEGMENT #2 OF SEASON (11.16.06 to 12.03.06)
(season is divided into ten equal segments)

The headlines:

1. The ML plays slowed down a little from their hot start, showing a modest loss (3.7 units) over the 97 plays since November 16. Still ahead about 18 units for the year.

2. The same teams ATS stayed very strong, hitting at 56.7% over the 97 plays and adding 10.9 units to the profit line. Now ahead about 19 units for the year.

3. The puzzling pattern continued -- it is not the plays where the Edgar ML is farthest from the real ML that are most profitable. Once again, somewhere around 15-20% off, profitability seems to drop off sharply.

FOR SEGMENT #2
ALL GAMES WHERE EDGAR ML IS OFF FROM PINNY CLOSING ML BY 5% OR MORE

ALL 97 PLAYS:
SU, 35-62, -3.70u
ATS, 55-42, +10.90u

SUBSETS
5%-10% Off
SU, 19-20, +8.97u
ATS, 27-12, +14.40u

10%-15% Off
SU, 9-23, -5.39u
ATS, 16-16, -0.80u

15%-20% Off
SU, 4-8, -2.60u
ATS, 8-4.+3.80u

More Than 20% Off
SU, 3-11, -4.68u
ATS, 4-10, -6.50u

===========================
FOR ENTIRE SEASON TO DATE

ALL 169 PLAYS:
SU, 63-104, +17.98u
ATS, 96-73, +19.35u

SUBSETS
5%-10% Off
SU, 34-40, +21.96u
ATS, 46-28, +16.60u

10%-15% Off
SU, 19-33, +5.46u
ATS, 31-21, +8.95u

15%-20% Off
SU, 7-15, -5.56u
ATS, 12-10, +1.50u

More Than 20% Off
SU, 5-16, -3.88u
ATS, 7-14, -7.70u

List of plays for this tenth of the season to follow.

[Jay Edgar]

DATE/TEAM/%GAP/ATS result/ML result
17-Nov WAS 6 LOSS -100
17-Nov MIN 7 LOSS -100
17-Nov NJ 8 WIN 178
17-Nov PHI 9 LOSS -100
17-Nov CHI 10 LOSS -100
17-Nov UTH 11 WIN 173
17-Nov TOR 13 WIN -100
17-Nov POR 14 LOSS -100
17-Nov NY 22 WIN 360
17-Nov MEM 23 LOSS -100

18-Nov HOU 5 LOSS -100
18-Nov UTH 5 LOSS 100
18-Nov CHA 6 LOSS -100
18-Nov POR 8 WIN 370
18-Nov NOK 8 WIN 129
18-Nov PHI 8 WIN -100
18-Nov TOR 9 WIN -100
18-Nov NY 10 LOSS -115
18-Nov SEA 10 LOSS -100
18-Nov MIL 14 LOSS -175
18-Nov MEM 18 WIN -100
18-Nov ATL 20 LOSS -148

19-Nov SAC 20 LOSS -100

20-Nov SEA 5 WIN 100
20-Nov TOR 8 WIN -100
20-Nov CHA 15 LOSS -100
20-Nov MEM 16 WIN 144
20-Nov NY 22 LOSS -100
20-Nov POR 28 LOSS -100
20-Nov GS 29 WIN -100

21-Nov DEN 6 WIN 100
21-Nov NOK 7 WIN 100
21-Nov MEM 15 WIN -100
21-Nov PHI 18 LOSS -100

22-Nov ATL 5 WIN -100
22-Nov UTH 7 WIN 173
22-Nov SEA 8 WIN 220
22-Nov GS 12 LOSS -185
22-Nov NY 13 LOSS -100
22-Nov NOK 13 LOSS -100
22-Nov TOR 17 WIN 116
22-Nov POR 25 WIN 160

24-Nov DAL 5 WIN 193
24-Nov IND 5 WIN 100
24-Nov MIN 5 WIN 178
24-Nov PHI 9 WIN 107
24-Nov CHA 10 LOSS -100
24-Nov SAC 11 WIN 240
24-Nov MEM 18 WIN 122

25-Nov PHI 7 LOSS -100
25-Nov ATL 8 LOSS -100
25-Nov POR 8 LOSS -100
25-Nov NOK 9 LOSS -100
25-Nov CHA 13 LOSS -145
25-Nov MIN 14 WIN 127
25-Nov GS 14 WIN 107
25-Nov MEM 17 WIN -100
25-Nov NY 25 LOSS -100

26-Nov DEN 6 WIN -100
26-Nov TOR 10 WIN 100
26-Nov SEA 21 LOSS -100
26-Nov POR 22 LOSS -100

27-Nov GS 28 WIN 160
27-Nov ORL 7 WIN 248
27-Nov MIN 15 WIN -100

28-Nov TOR 8 WIN 165
28-Nov ATL 11 WIN -100
28-Nov CHA 11 WIN 270
28-Nov MIN 13 WIN -100
28-Nov NY 14 LOSS -100
28-Nov MEM 14 WIN 400
28-Nov POR 9 LOSS -100

29-Nov ATL 6 WIN 100
29-Nov BOS 12 LOSS -136
29-Nov MEM 12 LOSS -100
29-Nov NY 14 WIN 490
29-Nov UTH 14 WIN 110
29-Nov HOU 18 LOSS -100
29-Nov TOR 25 LOSS -100

30-Nov MIA 14 WIN -100

1-Dec TOR 6 WIN 100
1-Dec IND 6 WIN -100
1-Dec NY 9 WIN -100
1-Dec MIN 9 LOSS -116
1-Dec POR 9 WIN -100
1-Dec SAC 10 LOSS -100
1-Dec CHA 11 LOSS -100
1-Dec MIL 12 WIN -100
1-Dec NOK 14 LOSS -100
1-Dec ATL 23 LOSS -100

2-Dec MEM 16 LOSS -117
2-Dec LAX 8 WIN 134
2-Dec PHI 9 WIN -100
2-Dec SAC 10 WIN -100
2-Dec SEA 11 WIN -100

3-Dec CHA 17 WIN 175
3-Dec MIN 5 WIN 118