[bubblebuttluv]

12/20/12:

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks write up:

Miami Heat:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 100.25
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 99
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 100.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: they haven’t played each other this year
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 34.25
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 6.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 72.15
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 12.75
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 88.25

Dallas Mavericks:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 100.5
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 102.75
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 101.75
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: they haven’t played each other this year
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 41
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 7
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 83.425
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 18.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 106.5

The Mavericks are ahead in 6 out of 9 categories (or 6 out of 8 not counting category 4). So I would initially say that the Mavericks would win straight up, but allowing an average 18.25 more points per game than the Heat over a the span of the last 4 games is glaring. While you could rightly argue that these numbers are so high because of multiple OT games, this point would also skew the Mavericks point totals. Losing to the Raptors like they did is also very bad. For my spread, the Heat’s number is 12 (100.25 – 88.25) and the Maverick’s number is -6 (100.5 – 106.5). So my raw spread makes the Heat a 18 point favorite (-12 - - 6 = -18). They are both rested and with the Mavericks being at home I will give them a point (these are no OKC boys). So my spread is -17. 5Dimes line is Heat -5.5, so barring any roster changes, I think the Heat are the better choice.

[lewsparks77]

i think you should average the past six games instead of four. Also, you should have took the Blazers last night. you were dead on

[bubblebuttluv]

It's good that the Trailblazers play worked. It would have been nice to win and felt like my analysis was perfect. But, my one pick for the night won as well, so I am feeling good regardless. Best of luck tonight!