Hello guys,
hope somebody can help me here.
I am betting on sports for about 2 years and other than tennis i tail people here on sbr or on twitter. the problem is though that once i tail them, they lose. i have a sheet that tells me f.e. with a 95% probability that a certain capper with a certain record will stay over 58& ATS. However, once i tail them they go on runs like 3-18, this happens all the time when i choose to tail a new capper, and it has never been the other way around.
And since my BR is not very large, it is very hard to sustain this kind of variance.
The strange thing about them is that i almost always winthe 1Q spread or ML with dogs when i make NBA plays, and most of the time my team is still winning and covering until the 4th, but for some reason I always lose the 4th qtr, or it starts in the 2nd half, examples of yetserday would be, when i had six plays: Cavs -4,5, Nets -4,5 Warriors -7,5, Hawks -5,5, also had Celtics and Spurs which were just really bad picks, but the other ones were all up huge at halftime and after 1Q, even the Spurs were winning 1Q.
So my questions would be, is it bad to win the first quarter of an NBA game and what can I do to prevent those 4th quarter meltdowns, it happens really everyday, there is no one day this NBA season where f.e. 2 of my teams would win the 4th quarter and 2 would lose it, its about 75% that my team loses the 4th quarter.
And the other question would be, what can I do to prevent my cappers from losing once i tail them, because they seem to be cursed as they also start losing in the 4th quarter all of sudden which they didnt before.
Another question would be, what can i do to get my BR up quickly, about 200 right now and what should i do once i get it to 500/1000, should there be a change in betting at some point?
Would appreciate any help.