1. #1
    Jay Edgar
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    Jay Edgar NBA, Wednesday 11.15.06

    RESULTS
    Tuesday, 1-6 -4.25u
    YTD 52-66, -1.66u

    RANKINGS BY LAST-10 POWER RATING
    1 UTH, 2 LAC, 3 SAN, 4 HOU, 5 GS
    6 SAC, 7 CHI, 8 SEA, 9 WAS, 10 DET

    11 CLE, 12 DAL, 13 NJ, 14 MIL, 15 ATL
    16 PHX, 17 DEN, 18 DAL, 19 IND, 20 NOK

    21 MEM, 22 LAX, 23 POR, 24 PHI, 25 MIN
    26 NY, 27 POR, 28 BOS, 29 MIA, 30 CHA

    EDGAR LINES for 11.15.06
    (FAVORITE-POINTS-MONEYLINE-DOG)
    CLE 7.0/267 over POR
    ORL 5.9/211 over DEN
    NY 2.0/122 over WAS
    NJ 6.0/214 over MIL
    BOS 2.5/126 over IND
    DET 5.8/207 over NOK
    SAN 9.3/429 over CHA
    SAC 5.8/207 over MEM
    SEA 4.7/170 over PHI

    The Nov. 15 numbers reflect my first stab at an adjustment for fatigue. There is still some more refining to do. The adjustment is based on these overall winning percentages for all teams in the last four seasons (based on number of days since last game):
    1 day .434
    2 days .522
    3 days .525
    4+ days .516
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 11-15-06 at 09:34 AM.

  2. #2
    Jay Edgar
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    numbers complete in top post


    As for SELECTIONS, overnight I played:
    ORL -3 +106
    NY +3.5 -110

    I'm not sure whether it's worth it to post early selections because (1) they bear little relation to my final card and (2) few others or even nobody does or should care, probably. (Of course it's easy to be down on the idea of posting early selections when they've had a net-negative result several days in a row). I'll have to figure out what works best for me.

    Meanwhile, here are the largest ML discrepancies as of WED AM, along with the "strike price" -- the price that reflects a 5% differential between my ML and the offered ML (to get a single offered ML I take the average of Pinnacle's two MLs on the game).

    WED 10:30 AM EDT: LARGEST ML DISCREPANCIES

    POR 16.7% -- strike price is +348
    NYK 14.2% -- strike price is +100
    MEM 11.8% -- strike price is +262
    BOS 10.5% -- strike price is -103
    CHA 7.8% -- strike price is +614
    NOK 7.6% -- strike price is +262
    ORL 4.6% -- strike price is -167
    MIL 2.5% -- strike price is +272
    SEA 1.2% -- strike price is -138
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 11-15-06 at 10:58 AM.

  3. #3
    moses millsap
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    Not sure about the Knicks, they are on my fade at all costs list Any thoughts on the total in Sacramento?

  4. #4
    Jay Edgar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OWNED
    Any thoughts on the total in Sacramento?
    Seems like a pretty sharp line to me. If you think MEM is going to make a game of it then the over looks good -- though in that case the Grizz themselves are probably the better play.

  5. #5
    moses millsap
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    I was considering the under in that game.

  6. #6
    bigboydan
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    Whats your thoughts on that Portland/Cavs total bro?

  7. #7
    isetcap
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    Quote Originally Posted by OWNED
    I was considering the under in that game.
    When I look at the individual matchups in this game, I'm concerned about Memphis managing to score 70.

    If you think Sacramento is going to score 120+ then you might not want to bet the under.

  8. #8
    Jay Edgar
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    Looks as if it's "anything can happen" time with the Grizz:

    ===============
    Fratello: Griz too hurt to run
    By Ronald Tillery
    Contact
    November 15, 2006

    LOS ANGELES -- In the wake of internal disappointment over the team's slow start, Grizzlies coach Mike Fratello said Tuesday he would welcome a forum with majority owner Michael Heisley.

    Fratello insisted that he's in tune with the organization's goals a day after Heisley expressed disappointment over the Grizzlies' style of play. Heisley said "there's no question we were hoping to be more of a running team" after the Grizzlies' record fell to 1-5 following a loss Sunday against the Los Angeles Lakers.

    The Griz are 28th in the NBA with an average of 6.2 fast-break points. They rank last in field goal percentage (.388) and assist average (15.3).

    "I have not gone back on the things we talked about with how we practice and play," Fratello said. "Every practice we've had has been structured toward running. With the injuries we've had, right now, we're not physically able to run for long periods."

    In a wide-ranging interview Monday with The Commercial Appeal, Heisley suggested the Griz would benefit by giving younger players more playing time. He also emphasized that Fratello's job isn't in jeopardy.

    Fratello also received a vote of confidence Tuesday after the team's practice.

    "I'm trying to comply," Fratello said. "Look at Hakim Warrick's minutes, Lawrence Roberts' minutes and Rudy Gay's minutes. Look at Kyle Lowry's minutes behind two veteran point guards. Look at two of our three rookies. I want to do what we said -- what's best for the organization going forward."

    Second-year forwards Warrick and Roberts average 32.3 and 20.7 minutes, respectively. Gay and Lowry -- both rookies -- average 24.2 and 15.4 minutes, respectively.

    ==============================
    Heisley sees little to like in 1-5 Griz
    Owner 'very concerned' about team's direction

    By Ronald Tillery
    Contact
    November 14, 2006

    LOS ANGELES -- Grizzlies majority owner Michael Heisley isn't about to interfere.

    Privately, though, he's not happy about the state of his basketball team.

    You name it, and Heisley's discouraged.

    And who could blame him?

    Attendance at FedExForum ranks last in the NBA with an average of 15,024 over three games.

    The Grizzlies own a 1-5 record and labor to score, with the worst field goal percentage (.388) and assists average (15.3) in the NBA.

    Compounding the situation is the Grizzlies aren't playing the up-tempo style management agreed on in the offseason.

    "All the things that worry the fans worry me," Heisley said. "I'm very concerned about the way the team is going right now. We don't seem to be able to get the ball out and run the floor. We don't seem to play faster. There's no question we were hoping to be more of a running team.

    "With the changes we made, we figured we should be able to run more. I'm not a coach. I'm sure they have some reasons. But if we're going to win any games without Pau (Gasol) we've got to get some easier shots. I'm disappointed that we've had so many fast-break points against us and we have so few. We're just not moving the ball up the floor. We should move the ball more and fast-break. I'm not giving that as an instruction. I'm talking as a fan."

    Memphis has been outscored on average 12.5-6.2 in fast-break points. It's another category in which the Grizzlies rank among the worst of the league's 30 teams. Their woefully low average in fast-break points ranks 28th in the league.

    Heisley watched on television as the Grizzlies put together a dismal performance at Phoenix and appeared mostly uninspired Sunday in a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.

    ========================
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 11-15-06 at 02:50 PM.

  9. #9
    Jay Edgar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigboydan
    Whats your thoughts on that Portland/Cavs total bro?
    I think I'd lean to the over, BBD. CLE is getting untracked a bit now and you'd have to think POR will not come out flatlining two nights in a row.

  10. #10
    Jay Edgar
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    SYSTEM PLAYS
    1* MEM +9 -103
    1* NY +3.5 -110
    1* BOS E +110
    .5* MEM E +360
    .5* NY E +140

    OTHERS
    1* MIL +7 -110
    .5* MIL E +240
    .5* PHI E +170

    Sold my Orlando for a middle.

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