1. 12-11-12 11:47 PM #1
    MrVJP
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    Atlanta -4 at Orlando?

    Thoughts?

    Great defensive Atlanta team. Orlando is coming off a long road trip-- usually a let down game when teams come home from these trips. Orlando hasn't been as bad as I thought they were going to be but the Hawks are as good as I thought.

    Hawks vs Magic

    Teague > Nelson.. Teague is much younger and much more athletic. Passes the ball better and can get the the hoop on Nelson. They both pass well though. Teague is a much better defender and is great at stealing passes.
    Harris < Afflalo.. Afflalo is one of the best defenders in the league. Can get hot with his jumper. More athletic than Harris. Also has a few inches and weight to score well in the post if he needs to but does well with pull up jumpers.

    Horford >> Vucevic.. Horford is one of the best players in the game no one talks about. Absolutely skilled at everything. Scoring, passing, rebounding, defense, efficiency. Vucevic definitely needs to put on more weight to have a better effect in the NBA. He's quite decent. Can make that short jumper, rebounds and defends well but is nowhere near Al Horford.

    Smith > Davis.. Josh Smith is way more athletic and can affect the game in many more ways than big baby. The only thing is that Smith falls in love with that long jumper like Iguodala and messes the rhythm of the team. Davis can post him up because of the weight difference but Smith is athletic enough to block those shots.

    Stevenson > Harkless.. haven't watched Harkless much.. barely averages minutes. I know stevenson is a pretty good defender. He's a bit shorter than Harkless and is more of a 2 than a wing. Would like some insight here..

    Bench advantage: Hawks
    Lou Williams, Zaza, Morrow (in place of Korver who is NWT, injured and baby born)
    Ayon, Nicholson, McRoberts, Redick
    Only good Magic bench player is Redick, hes basically playing starters mins and subs in for Harkless. Regardless, I think Lou Williams is about the same as Redick in terms of total output. Redick is a pure shooter and Lou can get on a hot streak. Lou plays better defense and Redick passes better. Pachulia is better than McRoberts and Ayon. I have not seen Nicholson much but he is putting up quite good numbers. Larry Drew is still tweaking with his rotation and is playing matchups. Maybe Ivan Johnson makes an appearance in this game. Tough as nails.

    Edit: after watching some archives, Harkless is still learning the way. Vaughn pulls him out and stick redick in key situations so I'm giving the nod to Stevenson.
    Last edited by MrVJP; 12-12-12 at 04:00 PM.
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  2. 12-11-12 11:48 PM #2
    therealdealau
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    Korver has been training with the team, he could get up and play too. I like the Hawks here
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  3. 12-11-12 11:51 PM #3
    MrVJP
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    Quote Originally Posted by therealdealau View Post
    Korver has been training with the team, he could get up and play too. I like the Hawks here
    Thats even better news. I was told he was out vs Heat because of daughter being born and some injury. Might even go bigger on the Hawks.
    Right now 33.00 to win 30.00
    Thanks for the news
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  4. 12-12-12 12:05 AM #4
    h3da
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    why is the line so low? -4?? Magic are playing terrible at the moment.. Makes no sense.
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  5. 12-12-12 12:10 AM #5
    MrVJP
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    Last time out they played, ATL won by 9 at home. Magic have actually been playing much better lately than they were earlier in the year. They can get hot since they all shoot jumpers-- still think ATL wins here and covers 85% of the time but it is the NBA.
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  6. 12-12-12 12:17 AM #6
    blanco
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    Quote Originally Posted by h3da View Post
    why is the line so low? -4?? Magic are playing terrible at the moment.. Makes no sense.
    are you kidding they've been playing their best ball of the season. that being said, I can't back them vs good teams without a lot more points.
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  7. 12-12-12 01:22 AM #7
    h3da
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    Orlando should be at least +7.5... Hawks -4 looks like a gift!
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  8. 12-12-12 01:32 AM #8
    MrVJP
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    Quote Originally Posted by h3da View Post
    Orlando should be at least +7.5... Hawks -4 looks like a gift!
    I had this Hawks -6 last week. Magic have been playing better. Hawks can go stagnant in their offense. Smith and Lou Williams go into these zones and jack up shots-- they just don't fall most of the time lol and Orlando can get hot.. all in all, this is an 85% play.
    Season is a marathon. You keep playing 70%+ plays and it turns out pretty good

    I just want some info on those rooks before I decide how much larger a play I'm going to make on it. I honestly don't watch full Magic games. I catch bits and pieces and usually those guys aren't playing when I do but the stats are saying they're doing well lately-- and stats don't really completely tell the defensive story. I watched them in summer league but what the heck can you really gauge from those?
    I guess I'll pull out the league pass archives and watch a little bit in the morning or something, GL all.
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  9. 12-12-12 01:39 AM #9
    blanco
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    they've been giving a good effort for the full 48 minutes ever since the win in LA.
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  10. 12-12-12 02:22 AM #10
    vancityswag
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    Bet hawks and watch the game so magic can suck like they always do when you watch. Simple enough
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  11. 12-12-12 02:32 AM #11
    MrVJP
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    Quote Originally Posted by blanco View Post
    they've been giving a good effort for the full 48 minutes ever since the win in LA.
    Agree.

    I have a strong feeling this covers. Just watched some of the Magic-Jazz game. They shoot well when left open. Rebound numbers are a bit inflated. Jump shot => long rebound. Isn't the box out type as much as it is long rebounds but don't get me wrong there is decent boxing out. There's no offensive post presence and ATL defends the jumper well. With Smith able to cover ground on defense this should actually work to the Hawks favor.
    I hope there's an Al Horford prop with good value. Might jump on it.

    Also, Spurs Jazz is on ESPN => Live wagering
    Celtics-Mavericks also on ESPN.. don't see any line for that game. I have it around -5, -5.5
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  12. 12-12-12 10:39 AM #12
    MrVJP
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    Line is now -4.5
    Just buying half a point and putting another 33.00
    Will play big on the two live wagering tonight , gl everyone
    Afflalo and Big baby are playing very well.
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  13. 12-12-12 10:58 AM #13
    rnunez91
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    I'm mad you said Teague is better than Nelson lmaoooo
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  14. 12-12-12 11:02 AM #14
    MrVJP
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    Quote Originally Posted by rnunez91 View Post
    I'm mad you said Teague is better than Nelson lmaoooo
    How is he not? I count defense when I evaluate players.
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  15. 12-12-12 12:04 PM #15
    radostin.dimi
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    Hawks at -5 now!GL!
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  16. 12-12-12 03:28 PM #16
    h3da
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    Hawks ftw
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  17. 12-12-12 10:53 PM #17
    MrVJP
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    That was unsettling. Hawks were up 18+ with like 3 mins left, somehow Magic came back, Hawks still covered but eh-- keep this in mind for future action on Magic with large spread. Andrew Nicholson was a good draft pick.
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  18. 12-12-12 10:55 PM #18
    vasilli07
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    Nice call and analysis.
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