1. 12-10-12 05:34 PM #1
    EaglesPhan36
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    EP36's Appetizers

    Been trying to find my way to beating the NBA. Props were my best niche, but the books have taken away my beloved three point props after we bum rushed them to start the season. Tried the 2nd half possessions formula that works much better in college hoops, but it has failed again this season in the NBA. Learned my lesson with that now. Very hard to see how games in the NBA finish vs. college where pace/fouling is easier to follow IMO. So I look to the best part of the game perhaps in the NBA ... the 1st half - the appetizer to the shitty finish of a lot of these games - where desire & effort should be at its peak. Have been playing some of these without posting this season and now going to keep a record here. Not claiming to know shit from shit, but I'm a stat cruncher so I am looking at possessions and points per possessions offensively & defensively mainly here. Also factoring in injuries and trends, etc. Gonna go with a two game limit per night to keep from getting my ass handed to me when this doesn't work out. Tail. Fade. Full-on Childhood Freakout. Do what's natural. 1st halves only in this thread for me. Going to throw a lot of stats out there for you to chew on and give you my ultimate selection. Will try to explain if you have any questions and we'll see if these work out or suck balls.

    12.10.12
    Charlotte-Golden State Over 102 [-110]
    Two of the top five possessions per game teams in the Association. Both average around 98 possessions per game. In the NBA, possessions are slightly more front heavy in the 1st half vs. college where they are back heavy due to fouling in the 2nd half. With that being said, the stats indicate our first half possessions should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 100, perhaps a shade higher. Both teams give up slightly more than one point per possessions with Charlotte @ 1.049 & G-State @ 1.009. Offensively, the Bobcats average slightly less than a point per possessions @ 0.977 & the Warriors a shade more @ 1.015.

    The Warriors have hit the 50 pt mark or better in three of their last five in the 1st half. For the Bobcats, there was a ridiculous lack of defense against San Antonio last time out - yet the 1st half finished @ 103 because they scored just 44 pts. The trend for Charlotte in their last five has been giving up big points early. Opponents have scored 59, 58, 51, 51 & 54 in that stretch in 1st halves. The outlook here shows Charlotte playing poorly defensively in the 1st half, so G-State likely exceeds their 1st half average with most Charlotte opponents netting anywhere from 5-9 more pts per 1st half than their average. Expecting the Warriors could hit anywhere from 53-57 making it necessary that Charlotte likely only hit near their 47-48 pt 1st half average to send this over. Seven straight 1st halves @ home for Charlotte have beaten this number.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 12-10-12 at 05:43 PM.
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  2. 12-10-12 06:23 PM #2
    EaglesPhan36
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    San Antonio-Houston Under 106 [-110]
    Houston ranks 4th in the league with 52.6 pts per 1st half, while San Antonio sits at 50 pts per 1st half. Houston sits a bit lower per game on the road, while the Spurs sit a tad higher at home - more of less keeping those averages intact overall. The teams rank 1st & 3rd in possessions per game with the Rockets averaging 100 & the Spurs almost 99. Both teams are superb in offensive efficiency with Houston at 1.025 pts per possession and San Antonio at 1.061. Defensively, the Rockets give up 1.030 per possession, while the Spurs are better at 0.973. With the slight lean towards more 1st half possessions - we could expect 102 possessions or so.

    We have a game to look at in the past with these two already meetings where San Antonio led 57-45 at the half. That came just a couple games back for both teams. Spurs have put up 59, 57 & 52 pt. 1st halves in their last three. Houston had an incredible 66 against Dallas last time out, while giving up 63. They have given up at least 57 1st half points in five of their last seven overall. The question doesn't seem to be around what the opponent will do, San Antonio is going to better than average in this one and will be expected to put up 55 or better. The question is can Houston do the rest? The answer is yes - with James Harden. An ankle injury has him questionable tonight. When he is in, this offense can put up points on ANYONE. Even with a tight ankle, Harden scored 39 vs. Dallas last time out. Lineup check will yield the play for me. Harden in = OVER. Harden out = UNDER. Right now assuming Harden will suit up and have OVER as the play, but ready to change if necessary. Will update when more info comes out.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 12-10-12 at 06:27 PM.
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  3. 12-10-12 06:27 PM #3
    EaglesPhan36
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    Update: Harden is OUT. UNDER is the play now.

    http://blog.chron.com/ultimaterocket...ithout-harden/
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  4. 12-10-12 06:28 PM #4
    bjb7223
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Update: Harden is OUT. UNDER is the play now.

    http://blog.chron.com/ultimaterocket...ithout-harden/

    what second half possessions formula you use for ncaab?
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  5. 12-10-12 06:32 PM #5
    EaglesPhan36
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    NCAA Plays. Explained in the 1st post.
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/ncaa-baske...ula-plays.html
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  6. 12-10-12 06:33 PM #6
    bjb7223
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    NCAA Plays. Explained in the 1st post.
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/ncaa-baske...ula-plays.html
    what % of these plays end up under btw?
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  7. 12-10-12 06:38 PM #7
    EaglesPhan36
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    I'd have to go back and count the unders I have played there. Majority are overs, that is for sure - but I do play unders when warranted.
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  8. 12-10-12 07:10 PM #8
    southpaw74
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    Are you kidding me golden state/Charlotte? What a collapse! I counted it as a winner after the first quarter, i put in my mnf plays and i come back to see they collapse in the second for an easy loser wtf
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  9. 12-10-12 07:11 PM #9
    EaglesPhan36
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    Nothing like a bad beat to start a new thread.
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  10. 12-10-12 07:44 PM #10
    EaglesPhan36
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    Wow. Well right up the ass to start this off. 21 points in three minutes to start the 2nd Q.
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  11. 12-10-12 07:52 PM #11
    EaglesPhan36
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    On pace for an 80 point quarter. Wow. Maybe this is the NBA Gods telling me to take off for good. FML.
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  12. 12-10-12 08:02 PM #12
    EaglesPhan36
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    Just unreal how terrible my luck is in the NBA. Warriors-Bobcats score 69 in the 3rd after only 42 was needed in the 2nd to get that 1st half cashed and they scored 37. Perhaps I should go back to my original plan of saying F the NBA because we don't jive. Damn you for taking my 3 props away.


    Of all the games so far, picked the ONLY one that finished 1st half UNDER and of course I had the OVER.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 12-10-12 at 08:05 PM.
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  13. 12-10-12 08:16 PM #13
    EaglesPhan36
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    2nd half is also 106. After a 77 pt. 2nd Q and a massive amount of possessions (112) ... how does the 2nd half finish under to make me feel like a bigger jerk.
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  14. 12-10-12 08:19 PM #14
    southpaw74
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    I saw that and it feels like they are spitting in our face...how can that 2nd quarter be so pitiful. That is why nba is so junky. They are never consistent and often lazy.
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  15. 12-10-12 08:23 PM #15
    EaglesPhan36
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    Still think 1st halves bring better effort levels, but I am going to have to see how this goes for the week. If I am getting my ass handed to me, I need to suck it up and admit defeat. For now, a bad beat away from 1-1 with the Rockets maybe needing to be an auto over.
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  16. 12-10-12 08:52 PM #16
    crackerjack
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Still think 1st halves bring better effort levels, but I am going to have to see how this goes for the week. If I am getting my ass handed to me, I need to suck it up and admit defeat. For now, a bad beat away from 1-1 with the Rockets maybe needing to be an auto over.
    This. Rockets are auto over or pass. Taking unders in Houston's games will drive you to drink...
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  17. 12-10-12 09:11 PM #17
    EaglesPhan36
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    Seemed a good spot without Harden to try. They have obviously played some ridiculous halves with tons of points, but they have also played several recently where they only scored in the 40s. I don't expect them to hold many teams down - perhaps 1st Half TT Overs on the opposition might be warranted more so than the full half. Going to try to learn as I go. I could deal with that one, but that 1st one was a f-ing buzzkill after a 61 pt quarter to not even hit 100 in the half. At least the pricks kept right on scoring, so I evened out by playing the 2nd half. Didn't want to play any more of those, but seemed a no brainer.
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  18. 12-10-12 09:22 PM #18
    southpaw74
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    Have you ever seen a game like golden state? They score another 70 in the 3rd but then the worst ever at 33 in the 4th. Thats an unreal discrepancy...
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  19. 12-11-12 02:26 PM #19
    EaglesPhan36
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    Day 1 was a massive bust. Day 2 ...

    RECORD: 0-2 [-2.20]

    12.11.12
    Pistons +2.5 [-110]
    Going with a different angle today. Pistons host the Nuggets. Denver does rank much higher in pt. production per 1st half with 51.6 per 1st half compared to right around 48 per 1st half for Detroit. At home though, the Pistons amp their production up a full three points to about 51 pts per 1st half. Denver stays right around their average on the road. The average 1st half margin for both is almost identical with each averaging a small deficit of about -0.3 per 1st half. However, the #s skew to Detroit @ home where the Pistons are +6 in home 1st halves, while Denver is -2.6 for road 1st halves. Looking at Detroit @ home this season, they have actually had the lead at the half in all ten home games, so they would obviously cover the +2.5 with that. Denver has had its shares of leads on the road @ the half, but the stats favor Detroit further with the Pistons suffocating opposing offenses to an average of just 44 pts per 1st half. Denver's big issue has been defense where they allow about 54 pts per 1st half. Running with the Detroit home trend in this one.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 12-11-12 at 03:36 PM.
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  20. 12-11-12 03:34 PM #20
    Tim Gerry Mander
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    Was on the over 202 yesterday in the GSW game - can't believe that didn't hit.

    Good luck with your plays.
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  21. 12-11-12 07:49 PM #21
    EaglesPhan36
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    Well another sign pointing in the direction of get the F away from the NBA. Detroit up 17 in the 1st and winds up down 6 @ the half. FML.
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  22. 12-12-12 07:33 AM #22
    EaglesPhan36
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    Well let's see what games I can get raped by today.

    RECORD: 0-3 [-3.30]
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  23. 12-12-12 05:41 PM #23
    EaglesPhan36
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    12.12.12
    Pacers-Cavaliers Over 94.5 or 95 [-110]
    Indiana is a much better scoring outfit at home, averaging almost six points per game more @ home vs. their overall average. Those numbers hold for the 1st half as their season average is 44.6, while they can 47.6 per 1st half at home. Cleveland has Irving back and you saw the big boost last night vs. LA. The Cavs put up 47 pts per 1st half, but get two points more per road half at 49. Defensively, Cleveland gives up just over 49 pts per 1st half - around 52 on the road. Indiana gives up around 47 pts per 1st half @ home. With the Cavs D a little leakier on the road & the Pacers more potent at home, they could be in line for 50. They have scored at least 48 pts in three of their last four @ home with two of those seeing them hit for at least 50.

    *Got 94.5 at one book, 95 at another.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 12-12-12 at 05:50 PM.
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  24. 12-12-12 06:31 PM #24
    EaglesPhan36
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    Oklahoma City -8 [-105]
    On paper, this looks strong. OKC has the best 1st half point differential in the league @ +8.5, up to +10.7 @ home. New Orleans has already been curb stomped twice by the Thunder. Both games saw New Orleans down double digits @ half time. The Hornets are coming in off a horrible performance against the Wizards where they scored just 70 points. New Orleans gives up about 52 pts per 1st half, while OKC is putting up 55 at home. The OKC D allows just 45 pts per 1st half, right on the season average for New Orleans which is actually a few points better on the road @ 48. OKC has gotten off to quick starts at home with leads of ten or more at the half in five of their last six.
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  25. 12-12-12 07:31 PM #25
    EaglesPhan36
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    Finally, a W for this project. Unfortunately, OKC is having one of their worst shooting halves to open. Maybe there can be some 2nd quarter magic in my favor for once ...
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  26. 12-12-12 08:05 PM #26
    EaglesPhan36
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    Well split those two. OKC plays their worst half at home all season and is down at the half.
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  27. 12-12-12 09:16 PM #27
    EaglesPhan36
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    Decided to try this one as well, trying to find a groove.

    Utah-San Antonio Over 105.5 [-110]
    Both teams are putting up right around 50 pts per 1st half. Utah though is pumping almost five pts more per home game @ 54.5. Both teams play a fairly high tempo with San Antonio averaging 99 possessions per game. That is good for 2nd in the league. Utah averages 96.5 which is middle of the road. Both teams average over a pt per possession with the Spurs allowing slightly under a pt per possession, while the Jazz average slightly more than a pt per possession defensively. Over their last five games, both teams are averaging right around 55 pts per 1st half. Three of Utah's last five @ home have met or exceeded this number with one also hitting right on 105. San Antonio has scored 52 or more in four of their last five 1st halves overall.
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  28. 12-12-12 10:33 PM #28
    EaglesPhan36
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    And back to Suck Town.
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  29. 12-12-12 10:45 PM #29
    riffraff24
    ...and out come the wolves
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    Im kind of liking Jazz over 50 for 2H. thoughts?
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  30. 12-12-12 10:48 PM #30
    EaglesPhan36
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    Thinking I hate the NBA. That is all.
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  31. 12-12-12 10:51 PM #31
    riffraff24
    ...and out come the wolves
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Thinking I hate the NBA. That is all.
    I feel ya dude. I go through waves of hating the fuk out of it. Like it right now because i'm doing well but I always eventually go back to hating it.
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  32. 12-12-12 10:51 PM #32
    southpaw74
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    It's pretty easy to hate outside of the occasional good game or playoff series.
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  33. 12-13-12 07:19 AM #33
    EaglesPhan36
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    Well at least broke through with a win, but still shitty overall. Gonna keep plugging away. Feel like totals are going to be the only way I want to play this for now. Sides have looked great and worked out like poop.

    RECORD: 1-5 [-4.50]
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  34. 12-13-12 06:02 PM #34
    EaglesPhan36
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    12.13.12
    Hawks-Bobcats Under 97 [-110]
    Charlotte has had issues of late getting much more than a total in the low 40s in the 1st half, so the big question is will they hold Atlanta down enough for this to stay under? ATL averages almost 50 pts per 1st half with Charlotte giving up about 52 per 1st half. ATL is right at that average over their last five, so the expectation is they will get 50-52 most likely. Charlotte is only netting 44 per 1st half in their last five and that is right at their number for road games as well this year. These two have met twice. Once the 1st half going under @ ATL and the other time over @ Charlotte. Let's see if the road drought continues for the Bobcats.
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  35. 12-13-12 07:33 PM #35
    EaglesPhan36
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    F it. You win NBA, I'm out.
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