1. 12-05-12 11:39 PM #1
    Justin3587
    Justin3587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-12
    Posts: 2,566
    Betpoints: 450

    What makes me absolutely sick about sports betting.

    I take the raptors -1.5 risking 105 to win 100 (2H that is)

    Then I take the Kings ML risking 100 to win 120 (2H as well)

    Little hedge action trying to either break even or make 15 bucks.

    Can you guess what the fukk happened???
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 12-05-12 11:42 PM #2
    ProfaneReality
    ProfaneReality's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-09
    Posts: 7,607
    Betpoints: 1

    Why are you risking 205 to win 15 in the first place

    AND you did it straddling a key number in basketball
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 12-05-12 11:45 PM #3
    mw00
    mw00's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-17-08
    Posts: 700
    Betpoints: 1724

    well not to play monday morning qb but wth are you risking 200 to win the most is 15 bux..hate to say it but thats just retarded. i can see the type of bets where you have a chance of hitting both and taking a chance on juice..come on man.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 12-05-12 11:46 PM #4
    Justin3587
    Justin3587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-12
    Posts: 2,566
    Betpoints: 450

    Come on man, 1 point though? What are the chances? Especially with the Raptors being down like 10 at half time?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 12-05-12 11:47 PM #5
    Popcorn Trick
    Popcorn Trick's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-20-12
    Posts: 810
    Betpoints: 540

    Sorry, for the loss, but you were begging for a bad beat with a bet like that....Only a half of ball to play to boot.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 12-05-12 11:48 PM #6
    Justin3587
    Justin3587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-12
    Posts: 2,566
    Betpoints: 450

    I dunno, I guess I just looked at it like it was a free 15 bucks.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 12-05-12 11:49 PM #7
    Justin3587
    Justin3587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-12
    Posts: 2,566
    Betpoints: 450

    or break even ya know?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 12-05-12 11:51 PM #8
    MoneylineExpress
    MoneylineExpress's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-18-11
    Posts: 1,437
    Betpoints: 865

    Sorry bro, but when it comes to percentages that was just a plain dumb bet.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 12-05-12 11:53 PM #9
    Popcorn Trick
    Popcorn Trick's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-20-12
    Posts: 810
    Betpoints: 540

    I feel for ya...Yesterday a garbage three pointer at the buzzer rocked my world.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 12-05-12 11:55 PM #10
    Justin3587
    Justin3587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-12
    Posts: 2,566
    Betpoints: 450

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneylineExpress View Post
    Sorry bro, but when it comes to percentages that was just a plain dumb bet.
    How so though? I mean what was the percentage that the 2h ends up one point in the Raptors favor?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 12-06-12 12:03 AM #11
    GreekMagic
    GreekMagic's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-11
    Posts: 181
    Betpoints: 1005

    If theres a chance then theres a chance you'll lose. Why don't you bet a grand on a 20 point lead blow out before half or a soccer game with a 3 goal lead at 1.10 to win $100. Very slim chance you'll lose, but theres still a chance
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 12-06-12 01:37 AM #12
    Goat Milk
    Goat Milk's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-24-10
    Posts: 25,838
    Betpoints: 10176

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin3587 View Post
    Come on man, 1 point though? What are the chances? Especially with the Raptors being down like 10 at half time?
    What does that mean? Down 10 at half time? I once saw Tracy McGrady score 13 points in 33 seconds by himself. I've witnessed 35 point comebacks in the NBA. I watched Dirk Nowitzski single handedly bring his team back in game 2 of the NBA finals down 15 points with 5 minutes to go and win the game at the buzzer...It's the NBA bro not Michigan St. vs. Gonzaga.

    Bad loss though. Sorry.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 12-06-12 02:07 AM #13
    Avenger
    Avenger's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-15-11
    Posts: 2,119
    Betpoints: 13

    They are on to you...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 12-06-12 02:14 AM #14
    Duff85
    Getting ready for Japball
    Duff85's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-15-10
    Posts: 2,920
    Betpoints: 4007

    This is terrible. The only time you might look at playing a polish middle is in a push/loss situation on a non-key number in football - or one where you have done the numbers and you win it enough to be profitable. The latter i'm going to say is beyond your skillset at the moment, the former is risky too. My advice - avoid middles, hedging, parlays etc etc etc until you become good at this.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 12-06-12 02:22 AM #15
    STAY STRONG
    STAY STRONG's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 2,498
    Betpoints: 120

    Rookie.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 12-06-12 02:22 AM #16
    boeing power
    boeing power's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-23-10
    Posts: 9,698
    Betpoints: 56

    Justin,

    You can't be a real person.

    Nobody is that fuking stupid.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 12-06-12 02:48 AM #17
    Justin3587
    Justin3587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-12
    Posts: 2,566
    Betpoints: 450

    Quote Originally Posted by boeing power View Post
    Justin,

    You can't be a real person.

    Nobody is that fuking stupid.
    You're an ass.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 12-06-12 02:54 AM #18
    byronbb
    byronbb's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-13-08
    Posts: 3,067
    Betpoints: 2284

    IF you placed these at the same time this is a good bet because long term it is a $4.6 loser and a $7.33 winner. You basically get screwed like this 2.25% of the time.
    (1-0.0225 * ($15+0)/2) - ($205*0.0225)
    = $7.33-$4.61
    = $2.72

    If you hedged live then you basically threw away an advantage and paid juice twice.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 12-06-12 03:10 AM #19
    wguan2
    wguan2's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-13-11
    Posts: 814
    Betpoints: 813

    The fact that you did this AND you posted a thread complaining about the results. That's just funny. I'm sorry but it's just funny...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 12-06-12 03:41 AM #20
    Justin3587
    Justin3587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-12
    Posts: 2,566
    Betpoints: 450

    Quote Originally Posted by byronbb View Post
    IF you placed these at the same time this is a good bet because long term it is a $4.6 loser and a $7.33 winner. You basically get screwed like this 2.25% of the time.
    (1-0.0225 * ($15+0)/2) - ($205*0.0225)
    = $7.33-$4.61
    = $2.72

    If you hedged live then you basically threw away an advantage and paid juice twice.
    I placed them at the same time. At halftime. I felt like it was something I couldn't pass up.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 12-06-12 03:55 AM #21
    Ralphie1412
    You Come at the King You Best Not Miss
    Ralphie1412's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-08
    Posts: 13,963
    Betpoints: 1209

    free 15 bucks
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 12-06-12 04:28 AM #22
    MagicDiceFlow
    blinded by nostalgia
    MagicDiceFlow's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-15-12
    Posts: 4,585
    Betpoints: 1

    The risk vs reward is definitely not worth it. Sure the risk was minimal but think about it. You have to win about 7 of those bets to equal just one bet of a -110.

    Can you imagine suffering through 7 bets??? Gimme the higher risk one bet of -110 any day.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 12-06-12 04:36 AM #23
    matt#1
    matt#1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-21-12
    Posts: 136
    Betpoints: 519

    Unlucky mate. At least you will definitely learn from this mistake.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 12-06-12 05:09 AM #24
    AceKingHigh
    Going for the Win!
    AceKingHigh's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-23-09
    Posts: 3,888
    Betpoints: 3454

    You got bad beat here... I don't think making $15 is what you aim for with risking $200, but if we will look into numbers as + or - EV I can't say for sure it was -EV bet... O_o anyone with a better math might help here... unlucky but next time, don't try to do it like this, and if you believed the ML would be good , just place like $12.5 on it to win $15, this way, your LOSS would be $12.50 instead of a very small but still possible chance to lose $200...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 12-06-12 05:21 AM #25
    El Sol
    El Sol's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-17-08
    Posts: 876
    Betpoints: 1802

    Quote Originally Posted by matt#1 View Post
    Unlucky mate. At least you will definitely learn from this mistake.
    This is everything when it comes to betting, the question is which is stronger, Mental discipline or feigning for action.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 12-06-12 06:23 AM #26
    crackerjack
    crackerjack's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-01-06
    Posts: 3,366
    Betpoints: 4099

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin3587 View Post
    I dunno, I guess I just looked at it like it was a free 15 bucks.
    I guess you learned the hard way there is no such thing as free money...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 12-06-12 06:27 AM #27
    JayLA
    On to the next one...
    JayLA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-11-12
    Posts: 7,806
    Betpoints: 1219

    Tough crowd.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 12-06-12 06:33 AM #28
    moguler
    moguler's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-28-11
    Posts: 219
    Betpoints: 8093

    Justin, I understand that's a terribly bad beat. However, anything unplesant can happen when you do sports betting. After all, it's gamble. You can't be sure of anything. I still remember losing my under bet last year when two NBA teams collected 26 points in the last two minutes. Bad beat. Yeah, it happens, and it's one unavoidable feature of sports betting. Don't let that stay in your mind. GL to your next play.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 12-06-12 06:48 AM #29
    crackerjack
    crackerjack's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-01-06
    Posts: 3,366
    Betpoints: 4099

    If the line was -850 that Toronto wouldn't win the second half by a point, would you have bet $200 on it? You even had worse odds than this as you lose half your bet if the second half ends in a push. There were four outcomes and only one of them netted you a very small return on investment. Just admit regardless of the outcome this time, it was a very poor decision. Were you drinking?
    Last edited by crackerjack; 12-06-12 at 06:52 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 12-06-12 06:58 AM #30
    Brutus84
    Brutus84's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-08-11
    Posts: 5,188
    Betpoints: 402

    So if Sac wins by 8 you lose 105? If Sac wins by 9+ you win 15? If Toronto loses by 6 or less you push? If Toronto loses by 7 you lose 205? Am I correct? Wtf idiot.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 12-06-12 08:04 AM #31
    necro
    Update your status
    necro's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-07-09
    Posts: 1,633
    Betpoints: 108

    Once I thought that putting 4k on Roddick against Gabashvilli to win 600 was a free money, but......
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 12-06-12 08:04 AM #32
    upscope
    upscope's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-11
    Posts: 2,837
    Betpoints: 6685

    You're not risking $205 to win $15. You're risking $205 to win $7.50 since theoretically half the time you win the $15 & half the time you break even. Throw in the push factor on one side of the bet & technically you are risking $205 to win something like $6

    That's the same payout as betting the ML on a 35-1 fav?? This game lands on 1 in the 2h more often than 35-1

    math could be wrong but anyway u look @ it, I don't like this bet @ all
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 12-06-12 08:06 AM #33
    16johnnymac
    16johnnymac's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-10
    Posts: 3,499
    Betpoints: 1412

    well dont do that then ok use ur brainUOTE=upscope;17026898]You're not risking $205 to win $15. You're risking $205 to win $7.50 since theoretically half the time you win the $15 & half the time you break even. Throw in the push factor on one side of the bet & technically you are risking $205 to win something like $6

    That's the same payout as betting the ML on a 35-1 fav?? This game lands on 1 in the 2h more often than 35-1

    math could be wrong but anyway u look @ it, I don't like this bet @ all[/QUOTE]
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 12-06-12 08:24 AM #34
    RealSlimShady
    RealSlimShady's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-07
    Posts: 6,249
    Betpoints: 11489

    Are you Polish??
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 12-06-12 08:28 AM #35
    Smoke
    Smoke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-09
    Posts: 48,111
    Betpoints: 1510

    Are you Polish??
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
123 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Players Talk | Next Thread »