Hey all. I am a newb to grinding Sports Betting and I am going to give it my best shot to become a winning player. In my past I was a straight gambler and through luck, fortune, and some decent insight I am actually up a net $5k~ lifetime on sports betting. I would define my past self as reckless, bold, and stupid when it came to sports betting. I am now going to attempt to change my ways and stick to a routine that I am going to make as I go on this journey. I hope you guys enjoy reading this thread as it develops whether I go busto or make it to the top. I'll try and post as much insight into why I made each pick, these that are currently graded and pending, and those that I make in the future time to come. The betting unit I am going to be using for this will be $30. Before I bet whatever came to mind, like I said I had zero discipline in the past and discipline is now what I am preaching to myself. I hope to get as much critique from you guys on my picks / insight and hopefully you guys can improve my ideologies as well. Once again, my goal in this is to become a disciplined winning sports bettor with a focus on NBA and NFL.
I'm going to start with the parlay on 12-02-12 that made my bankroll where it is and post my bets that I have pending and graded. I will NOT be betting anymore reckless parlays like this NFL one and the NBA one. That is the type of bettor I have been in the past 5 years and somehow I am up $5K.. GG variance. Any bet that is NOT for $30 is previous to my attempt to make it long term.
Once again I hope to get any critique/advice at all as I am very newb to professional sports betting. I only have an account on BetOnline.
All of my insight on why I picked the bet will be written in a colored font.
Parlay
$188.00
$1,920.87
Football - 359 Pittsburgh Steelers +250 for Game Football - 361 Cleveland Browns -140 for Game Football - 363 Cincinnati Bengals +1 -115 for Game
I felt like Browns and Bengals were actually easy picks in this one. When I saw the lines so close, I personally favored Bengals and Browns so I picked them in ML's. Picked Steelers over Ravens because I am a believer in betting on desperate teams, especially teams with a foundation like the Steelers with Mike Tomlin and Dick Labeau. Did not expect such an amazing performance by Charlie Batch, thought he would manage the game while the run game and the defense would take care of business. I actually won a $1.5k parlay earlier in the season with Steelers as my biggest dogs @NYG. Its funny because I hate them
Risk $50 - Cowboys PK live bet while 14-3 vs Eagles (WIN $43.48)
Was actually hoping that Dallas would fall into an early hole, had confidence that Romo would bring them back as he has been insanely hot lately. Their first half offense has been abysmal whereas in the 2nd half it seems as if they can't be stopped. Didn't have confidence in Dallas covering 10.5 even though they should have if it wasn't for that nasty PR.. I cringed because of the money it shifted..
12-03-2012 (WIN $103.64)
Risk $100 - Parlay Cavs/Clippers/Magic to win $2.5k (LOSE $100)
Clips and Magic actually won their games vs Jazz and Warriors, Cavs lost by 10 to Detroit. I'm not going to go into too much detail as this is just in my log for sake of accuracy. As you can see below I had a lot of confidence in Magic's odds as a -10 dog.. I'll talk about that down there. Hoped for the parlay to hit to come up big but obviously didn't luck out here with the Cavs falling to Detroit which in hindsight was an awful choice.
Risk $15 - NYG/WAS Over 48 (LOSE $15)
Risk $7.5 - Redskins ML +130 vs Giants (WIN $9.55)
Not gonna talk about the NYG/WAS game since the bets are so insignificant, sorry for even adding them on here once again this is before I decided I wanted to become a disciplined bettor. Just wanted to add all my bets for the sake of accuracy.
Risk $47 - Magic ML +440 @ Warriors (WIN $209.09)
Felt like Magic were an amazing value bet on the ML here being +440 which is what enticed me. If I ever see a ML of a team like the Magic that can shoot the ball as well as they can (30 points in 6 mins vs Lakers WTF?!) against a team that doesn't have a great foundation like the Warriors, I am going to at least entertain the thought of taking it. I personally watched the Magic vs the Lakers live and didn't care too much for the back to back factor considering they don't have to travel too far already being in California. Long story short, I felt like Magic are better than the public perceives them to be and Warriors do not deserve to be 10 point favorites against them.
[TODAY - the day I decided to attempt to become a disciplined bettor]
12-04-2012 (WIN $29.09)
Risk $30 - Heat -4.5 @ Wizards, Grizzlies -4 vs Suns Teaser (LOSE $30)
Personally felt like this was a very safe bet, lost it but I don't regret it. Feel like I got amazing value on this bet, as I feel like the majority of the times both teams will easily cover and I was getting around +100. Don't think much insight is needed for this one.
Risk $30 - Rockets ML +110 vs Lakers (WIN $33)
Took Rockets at home where they have been very good, Lakers have been abysmal on the road, just came off an unbelievably disappointing loss at home to the Magic, the post game antics of Kobe / Gasol / Dwight etc made me feel like a rested Rockets squad that just came off a fresh win vs the Jazz had a slight advantage in this game and being that I could get +110 an ML I felt was more than likely to happen I took it.
Risk $30 - Rockets 2nd half down 13 -4 -115 vs Lakers (WIN $26.09)
James Harden was struggling, I honestly expected that to continue as Artest man on him with Dwight behind him was obviously a difficult match up. Just expected Rockets to easily get back in this being at home with the three ball. Wasn't sure if Rockets would win the ML, but had a lot of confidence on this line when I saw it at half.
[This Broncos bet was made before I made the decision to follow discipline, I really wish I could take it back but still have decent confidence that it will be a winner.]
12-06-2012 (RESULT?)
Risk $200 - Broncos -9.5 buying -1 -125 @ Raiders ($200/$160)
Took this bet before my path of discipline. Anyways, bought a point to get the spread down to 9.5 as I could see this game being won by 10. Raiders just look straight awful, Broncos handled them 37-6 earlier in the season albeit at home, but this Raiders team has nothing to play for and just looks completely out of sync. It will take a miracle for this game to be close, with Peyton against that defense and Miller/Dumervil rushing Palmer after an early lead that I suspect Broncos will take. But hey thats why they play the games. Losing this one will be somewhat devastating I wish I could take it back and redo it for $30, but hey we'll see what happens.
[Will probably add more Sunday bets as the week closes down, except NBA bets at least 3 days a week, I will bet games as I see the opportunity to win money.]
12-09-2012 (RESULT?)
Risk $10 - Falcons -3.5 -110 @ Panthers ($10/$9.09)
Risk $30 - Falcons -2.5 buying -1 -155 @ Panthers ($30/$19.35)
Panthers are a team at this point that have nothing to play for and even though Cam has looked very nice as of late, I just don't see the team as a whple finding the motivation to face a sturdy Falcons squad fresh off a 10 point win against NO. Falcons still playing for playoff seeding that they desperately need. Bought a point for safety of the field goal, albeit losing a lot of money odds. The closeness of Falcons games that have been well documented made it worth it for me to have the added security.
Once again, hope this isn't off grounds as I am a newb, but I figured some people might find it entertaining to see my journey to bust or moneys! And I hope to learn a lot from the vets to give me tips as I go on the way. Please give me comments on improvements to this log and my bets as they come just please no flame!
Risk $30 - Hawks ML -130 vs Nuggets (WIN $23.08)
Risk $30 - Nuggets Live Bet +4 in the 4th quarter for the game vs Hawks (PUSH)
Risk $30 - Warriors ML -105 @ Pistons (WIN $28.57)
Risk $30 - Magic +8.5 buying .5 -115 @ Jazz (WIN $26.09)
Risk $30 - Mavericks +9.5 buying 1 -130 @ Clippers (LOSE $30)
Risk $30 - Mavericks +0 3rd quarter Live Bet vs Clippers (WIN $26.06)
Had the Hawks straight vs Nuggets, felt like they would take care of work at home vs Nuggets who have an awful start to the schedule. (WIN $23.08)
I added in a Nuggets +4 live bet in the fourth, to guarantee a maximum loss of just the juice and a potential to win double, ended up pushing. Thought it was a good value bet however, because at that point Hawks were still capable of losing, this way my worst case scenario was losing a few bucks, with the potential to win 55ish.. (PUSH)
Warriors over Pistons ML at home, thought this was an easy bet.. I know Detroit has been hot at home but felt like Warriors would bounce back from their loss against the Magic and take care of a squad that lacks offensive firepower. (WIN $28.57)
Magic +8.5, was +8 but bought half a point. Was actually considering taking the ML in this one as I did against the Warriors and made $200 off $40, but I figured I'd play it safe here and that Magic's streak was likely to fall. (WIN $26.09)
Had Mavs +9.5 buying a full point, like the chances of them keeping it close with the vets they have and the three point shooters. Unfortunately Mayo and Kaman were painfully cold and they had some lousy turnovers the entire game, it was rather embarrassing.. Carlisle better bethem back into shape. (LOSE $30)
At half time I was deciding between the 3rd quarter +0 bet or the 2nd half -.5 bet, ended up taking the 3rd quarter +0, figured Mavs were likely to make a strong push after halftime, but Clippers would likely overcome that and push the lead back up. Fortunately the game played out as I expected and was able to get back the majority of my loss on that one. (WIN $26.06)
Grand total on the day was +$73.80 so I could not complain.
Picks for 12/6/2012
Decide to stay away from the Mavs game today, I fell in love with the Knicks +7 for $30 to win $27.27, I was really really contemplating buying half a point but I feel like I'm cutting my profits too much so I'm going to just stick with the +7.
As I said earlier in the thread, I already had Denver @ Oakland for 200 to win 160, bought a point to make the spread +9.5. I am really nervous about this game now that I am trying to run a disciplined betting pattern, I fear losing this game might tilt me a bit after winning 4 straight days around $30-$70 each day, losing this one would make me lose all profits but I know I have to keep my aggression at bay if I lose this one and cut my losses. Hopefully Denver can just pull this one through for me and I can move on!
Unless I add some more bets through the day I'm looking at a max loss of $230 and a max win of $187.27. Wish me luck boys!
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them back into shape. (LOSE $30)
Hopefully Denver can just pull this one through for me and I can move on!
