[JR007]

There are two big football games for sports bettors on the Thursday Night card. The New Orleans Saints visit the Atlanta Falcons in the NFL, and Louisville visits Rutgers with the Big East berth in the BCS on the line. Let’s take a look at how sharps (professional wagerers) are betting both of those marquee matchups.
NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA
Opening Line: Atlanta by 3.5, total of 55.5
Current Line: Atlanta by 3.5, total of 56
You regulars know that a “widely available” line that sits within a half point of a key number is telling you a lot about a game. In this instance, it’s telling you that sharps DON’T like New Orleans! If the Saints offered any sort of value, sharps would have pounded them and gladly taken the hook because so many games land right on three. Sharps don’t see this game landing on three…which tells you that it’s either Atlanta or pass for sharps. We have seen Atlanta -4 out there in some spots as we go to press. Squares (the public) tend to bet favorites in TV games. Sportsbooks will likely rooting for the underdog as usual. Sharps aren’t in love with Atlanta or this number would have moved up sooner. Atlanta or pass, with that sustained period at 3.5 confirming sharp contempt for the Saints.
There was some interest in the Over in this indoor game matching good offenses. Their prior meeting landed on 58 even with Atlanta failing to find the end zone for the game winner in the final minutes. Given that there are some old school sharps who bet Under any total they see in the 50’s…it might be telling that this game shaded over anyway. A half point is bigger than it seems when it flows against historical norms.
Not a big money spot for sharps. They clearly have no interest in the dog and Under. Those who are betting are generally thinking Atlanta and Over in conservative fashion.
LOUISVILLE at RUTGERS
Opening Line: Rutgers -2.5, total of 43.5
Current Line: Rutgers -3, total of 43.5
Sharps did move this game to the critical number, but no further. Had the number stuck at Rutgers -2.5, that would have suggested sharp interest in Louisville. Note that there wasn’t a move past the key number of three for the Scarlet Knights, and there wasn’t significant interest on the dog at the new number. The market sees these as even teams, with Rutgers getting the standard three points of respect for home field advantage.
No interest on this low college total. Cool temperatures are expected (in the high 30’s) but not much wind. It should be said that some of the lack of interest from sharps in this game involved the injury to Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. He broke his wrist on his non-throwing hand last week in a loss to Connecticut. He can still throw, but may have to take all snaps from shotgun position. We’re hearing that some sharps would have hit Louisville hard at +3 if they were confident Bridgewater would be near 100% of his normal production.
Given the percentages in play at the number three, we expect sharps to fade any public move that might occur in the hours leading up to kickoff. Sharps would take Louisville at +3.5 (unless the move involved late news about an injury), and would back Rutgers again at -2.5 were the line to move back in that direction.

[Goat Milk]

plagiarized

[7secondsOrLess]

i wouldve never known cuz thats how good his english is

[JR007]

correct, it is cut and paste,.......never claimed it was mine