[bigjah15]

I have been using this lately and it seems to be working. I am currently back testing it with last season and i am half way through it and its hitting 17-5 (77%). I will back test 3 regular seasons and see where it stands, considering last year was a shorter schedule.

Well here it is.

when a team loses SU two days in a row and have a day off, play them ats on their next game.


BUT it has to be a 2 game losing streak, not 3 or more.


for example

this year

11-20-12 the nets lost to the lakers
11-21-12 the nets lost to the warriors
11-22-12 day off
11-23-12 the nets beat the clippers by 10 and covered the spread of +3


Another example

11-23-12 cleveland loses to orlando
11-24-12 cleveland lose to miami
11-25-12 day off
11-26-12 cleveland covers the spread of +12.5


Now i may be getting lucky or whatever but i figured id share with someone to see what their take is on it.

After i back test a few seasons we will get a feel for what the actual numbers are.

[bigjah15]

According to this the next play would be Portland against washington tomorrow.

They lost to the nets on sunday, detroit on monday and today they have off, so portland is the play tomorrow

[bigballr9989]

I like the logic behind it, and obv the results speak for themselves. However, if the wiz are going to beat anyone it's gonna be Portland. They have no bench and with Aldridge banged up NeNe should get whatever he wants inside.
And just to play devils advocate, your logic applies to the Wiz as well; they lost 2 and then get today off.

[bigjah15]

I like the logic behind it, and obv the results speak for themselves. However, if the wiz are going to beat anyone it's gonna be Portland. They have no bench and with Aldridge banged up NeNe should get whatever he wants inside.

i understand that but this would be an auto play so i would not take that into an account, even though that sounds stupid. I will see what the line is but more than likely play is going to be portland. Its been working for me so will stick to it. Thanks for your input tho, much appreciated

[pip2]

Some good old fashioned creative thinking. Hope it works out. I will put a few bucks on Portland tomorrow as art of the testing!

[bigballr9989]

i understand that but this would be an auto play so i would not take that into an account, even though that sounds stupid. I will see what the line is but more than likely play is going to be portland. Its been working for me so will stick to it. Thanks for your input tho, much appreciated

Same logic applies to the wizards; lost 2 then a day off. Now that's stupid...

[bigjah15]

I have been using this lately and it seems to be working. I am currently back testing it with last season and i am half way through it and its hitting 17-5 (77%). I will back test 3 regular seasons and see where it stands, considering last year was a shorter schedule.

Well here it is.

when a team loses SU two days in a row and have a day off, play them ats on their next game.


BUT it has to be a 2 game losing streak, not 3 or more.

Same logic applies to the wizards; lost 2 then a day off. Now that's stupid...

really? washington has lost 12 straight. Read my whole post please

[bigjah15]

Last season finished 37-13 (74%)

[bigjah15]

And washington hasnt lost two consecutive days anyway so would not apply, again read the whole post.

[4TH AND STUPID]

i absolutely HATE "systems" and "autoplays" etc.


but i think there is decent logic behind this. if you want to be a star prove it. keep track of it for the remainder of the year. i for one, will be paying attention.


start off 0-0 today and bet 100 dollar units ATS for the remainder of the year and keep track. good luck.

[bigjah15]

i absolutely HATE "systems" and "autoplays" etc.


but i think there is decent logic behind this. if you want to be a star prove it. keep track of it for the remainder of the year. i for one, will be paying attention.

[bigjah15]

It tends to work well with streaky teams.

[Butterface]

Nice, I like it a lot.. So, you only bet on those particular days?

[rainman416]

I'm guessing that washington will be favored in tomorrow game too, either -2.5 or 4.5 ish so you could both be right. I like the auto play here, not a big fan of systems but this one makes sense

[altieriflyers]

Let´s do it! Portland it is

[bigjah15]

2010-2011
32-19(62.7%)

[ZigZagMan]

Is this only if there's one off-day in between the two losses?

Example:
Day 1 Loss
Day 2 Loss
Day 3 OFF
Day 4 Bet

Or does it cover multiple off days in between?

Example:
Day 1 Loss
Day 2 Loss
Day 3 OFF
Day 4 OFF
Day 5 Bet

Looking forward to reading more about this.

[bigjah15]

Is this only if there's one off-day in between the two losses?

Example:
Day 1 Loss
Day 2 Loss
Day 3 OFF
Day 4 Bet

Or does it cover multiple off days in between?

Example:
Day 1 Loss
Day 2 Loss
Day 3 OFF
Day 4 OFF
Day 5 Bet

Looking forward to reading more about this.

one day, your first example is correct

day 1 lose straigh up
day 2 lose straight up
day 3 off
day 4 bet ats

[bhunter]

Hi, sounds promising. Have you tried backtesting it on college basketball to see if it works there as well?

[bigjah15]

Hi, sounds promising. Have you tried backtesting it on college basketball to see if it works there as well?

dont know how that would work because their schedule is more spaced out. They do not play as many games and theres a big difference in ability in certain teams. Nba consist of all professional teams so in a sense any given team can win on any given night if one team takes night off but you wont see siena taking it to a team like indiana or syracuse

[Dexter]

I have been using this lately and it seems to be working. I am currently back testing it with last season and i am half way through it and its hitting 17-5 (77%). I will back test 3 regular seasons and see where it stands, considering last year was a shorter schedule.

Well here it is.

when a team loses SU two days in a row and have a day off, play them ats on their next game.


BUT it has to be a 2 game losing streak, not 3 or more.


for example

this year

11-20-12 the nets lost to the lakers
11-21-12 the nets lost to the warriors
11-22-12 day off
11-23-12 the nets beat the clippers by 10 and covered the spread of +3


Another example

11-23-12 cleveland loses to orlando
11-24-12 cleveland lose to miami
11-25-12 day off
11-26-12 cleveland covers the spread of +12.5


Now i may be getting lucky or whatever but i figured id share with someone to see what their take is on it.

After i back test a few seasons we will get a feel for what the actual numbers are.

i love it and will likely play these for 1u the rest of the way....let me know where you will be posting the plays. the logic fits my situational style of handicapping

[Dexter]

i absolutely HATE "systems" and "autoplays" etc.


but i think there is decent logic behind this. if you want to be a star prove it. keep track of it for the remainder of the year. i for one, will be paying attention.


start off 0-0 today and bet 100 dollar units ATS for the remainder of the year and keep track. good luck.

i hate systems as well but love autoplays....

[LionsFTW]

i like it. Professionals in a bounce back situation, I'll ride it for a bit.
Is it a flat bet, or any possibility of raising the play based on situations i.e. playing a team off a home and home, playing team on 6th game in 10 days, etc?

[bigjah15]

i love it and will likely play these for 1u the rest of the way....let me know where you will be posting the plays. the logic fits my situational style of handicapping

will probably keep the plays in here for now

[wguan2]

This is a great idea. I will also tail you for a unit for the rest of the season. What is the record this current season?

[bigjah15]

This is a great idea. I will also tail you for a unit for the rest of the season. What is the record this current season?

8-4 (66.6%)

[bigjah15]

Still waiting on line to come out

[Catchn_Picks]

Logical...just one day off allows teams a moment to reset and rethink their offense and defense without dwelling on it.

[pip2]

So bigjah, what's your plan if Aldridge, let's say, doesn't play today...are you still betting on Portland?

[bigjah15]

So bigjah, what's your plan if Aldridge, let's say, doesn't play today...are you still betting on Portland?

Yes, sticking with the play. Going small either way.

I may do some more research on each team and their own seperate records from last year and base unit sizes off the best teams. It will vary obviously since teams have changed since last year but I want to try to have high probable teams with higher unit sizes. For example Cleveland is 2-0 in this situation this year

[bigjah15]

Portland -3.5 1unit

[pip2]

OK! Went small for -102 odds at 5Dimes...

[bigjah15]

May also play little on money line at -150

[bigjah15]

May also play little on money line at -150

Would not be recorded in thread though, just letting ya know

[bigjah15]

Now at -3