1. What happens in the first 3 quarters is incredibly unimportant unless there is at least a 20 point lead going into the 4th quarter
2. There is value in live betting favorites that are behind mid to late in the 4th quarter
Agree?
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11-12-12 10:12 PM #1
Couple things about the NBA...
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11-12-12 10:14 PM #2
Before the fourth quarter we care more about the outcome then the players do. And to your second point I don't know, I stay away from live NBA.
Originally Posted by TheCentaur
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11-12-12 10:20 PM #3
Here is my opinion. Originally Posted by TheCentaur
1. What happens in the first 3 quarters is incredibly important. Why? Teams take at least 1 quarter to feel each other out. Guys that are usually in a rhythm for the first 3 quarters are usually in a rhythm in the fourth. Sometimes it takes a team 2 quarters literally to find a mismatch on the court they can take advantage of. Bench production means everything in the NBA unless you have a starting lineup like MIA or LAL. If MIA or LAL or OKC have significant bench production through 3 quarters you can almost guarantee they are going to win that basketball game.
What's more, number of fouls. I wouldn't feel very comfortable if I had a bet on the Spurs and both Duncan and Parker have 5 fouls through 3 quarters...
2. There is a lot of value in live betting. You have to really watch the game to live bet or after a couple hundred bets you will bury yourself if you don't watch. Look for pace, who's taking care of the ball, if a team is taking good shots and just missing, what guys are on the court, who's going for lose balls, etc.
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11-12-12 10:21 PM #4
OKC and the Heat both +300 and more in the 4th quarter today.
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11-12-12 10:26 PM #5
Goat makes some valid points. What I look at during the half is FG% and the quality of shots taken. If a team takes quality shots and shoots like 35%, I would tend to think that teams average would normalize during the second half. All other things being equal, law of averages work out for the most part throughout the course of an NBA game. There will be an outlier here and there where a team just is gonna shoot shitty and never normalize. But usually the average will work itself out.
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11-12-12 10:29 PM #6
Mia was around +685 with 3 or 4 to play down by 8 or 9 Originally Posted by hawley
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11-12-12 10:30 PM #7
foul trouble and rotations/minutes played are pretty much all you need to worry about in a typical nba game
that being said, duncan and parker would NEVER have 5 fouls after 3 quarters....a guy is in enough foul trouble in the nba that he'll sit the rest of the 3rd with 4 unless the team is highly desperate for some reason
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11-12-12 10:40 PM #8
at what book do you guys get those lines at? I'm assuming no american books? Originally Posted by TheCentaur
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11-12-12 10:42 PM #9
I just looked it up on pinnacle history where I saw it on Show me the odds line service. Could have sworn I saw it at this but it's nowhere in the history. Originally Posted by Goat Milk
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