CLEVELAND +12 at Memphis (-110) 1.5x
Since the beginning of last season Memphis has been double-digit favorites at home six different times. They are 0-6 ATS in that scenario. Cleveland is coming off of a very tough road matchup against the Heat in which they only lost by 2 points. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Memphis. Looking at the rosters you would expect an easy cover for the Memphis but Cleveland has been playing hard and seems to hang around in most games. Memphis is 5-1 ATS at home this season which is why they are getting such a large number here. Vegas needs to put a stop to that trend or at least get bettors on the other side of it. Memphis hasn't beaten the Cavs by 12 or more in any recent (going back to 2007). The Grizzlies are clearly the better team but I'll go with history and say they get the SU win but fail to cover as a double-digit favorite at home once again.
SAN ANTONIO -5.5 at Washington (-110) 2x
The Wizards are 0-11 for a reason. They just simply are not a good basketball team. Nene is back which certainly helps, but the Spurs will be far too much for them to keep up with. San Antonio is coming off of a back-to-back OT game which is giving them some value here. Since 2007 the Spurs are 5-0 ATS at Washington and the average margin of victory has been 20.2 points while the closest game has been an 8 point differential. Just looking at rest the situational play would be against the Spurs here. However, that has been overly compensated for by the bookies and the play is now with the Spurs.
PORTLAND (pk) at Detroit (-110) 2x Portland is a far superior team with or without Aldridge. If I knew Aldridge was in this would be a 3 unit play and it sounds like he will be playing but I will keep it 2 units just to be safe. Both teams are coming off of a back-to-back with travel so really no edge there. Portland is 7-1 ATS in there last 8 in Detroit. The Blazers have struggled on the road this season but I have to believe talent wins out in this contest. They simply have too much fire power for Detroit to hang with.
*Road favorites (likely to be both Spurs and Blazers by tipoff tonight) are 32-24-2 (57.14%) so far this season.
*Road teams with no rest (Spurs and Blazers tonight) are 34-26-3 (56.67%) so far this season.
MINNESOTA +1.5 at Sacramento (-110) 2x TWolves beat the Kings by 12 earlier this year and I believe are the better team. They out-rebounded the Kings by 10 in that game without Kevin Love. Now that they have had some rest in-between games I think they will find a way to create chemistry with Love playing again and get a win. Sacramento is 9-17-1 (34.61%) ATS as a home favorite since the 2010-2011 season and 0-2-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Kings offense has been impressive in their last 3 games against the Lakers and Utah twice. However, I think the Wolves put that to an end as they are a top 10 team in defensive rating.
TWolves win so 1-0 for the day.
NBA Overall YTD Record: 22-16-1 (57.89%) Sides: 17-9-1 (65.38%) Totals: 5-7 (41.67%)
Total Units: +5.45
One play ready for tomorrow so far.
BROOKLYN +4.5 at Boston (-110) 3x Definitely a 3 unit play on this one. Hopefully will have time for a write up in the morning but Brooklyn is the better team and beat Boston by 5 earlier this season. I'm tempted to take the ml but I'll gladly take the points.
OVER 204.5 San Antonio at Miami (-110) 2u San Antonio is playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Since the start of last season, in this situational spot the OVER is 8-3. Miami is playing on 4 days rest. Since the start of last season, the OVER is 5-2 when Miami is 3 or more days rest. I look for Miami to try and push the pace a little bit knowing the rest differential between the teams. Both of these squads are in the top 5 in the league at offensive efficiency and Miami isn't the defensive team that they were last season.
Yikes, DO NOT tail my play today with Pop resting Parker, Duncan, and Ginobli. I tried to cancel my wager with my sportsbook but they are not allowing me to. Rough.
MILWAUKEE -1.5 at Minnesota (-110) 2u
Very evenly matched teams and I'd typically lean towards Minnesota at home as their typical lineup can give the Bucks some trouble. However, with Kirilenko and Love both likely out the Bucks have a clear advantage in this game. Kirilenko has been a jack of all trades for Minnesota this season and has been very effective on the floor. Obviously Love is a huge loss. The Bucks should take this one but I do expect Pekovic to give them some trouble inside.
BROOKLYN -4 at Orlando (-110) 2u
Brooklyn beat Orlando at home by 8 earlier this season. I believe this is a matchup of one of the best teams in the East versus one of the worst. Lopez being ruled out is a loss for Brooklyn but I think they have enough to run away with this game.
PHOENIX +2.5 at Toronto (-110) 1.5u The Suns are 3-0-1 in their last 4 meetings at Toronto. Phoenix is coming off of a 40 point blow out and I expect them to rebound with a lot of energy in this one. Both of these teams struggle defensively but Phoenix clearly has the more efficient offense and is better on the glass. That should be enough of a difference to offset the homecourt advantage.
CLIPPERS -1.5 at Jazz (-110) 2u You might still be able to find the Clippers at +1.5 at some books. The rub here is that LA has lost 38 of their last 40 in Utah and Utah is 6-0 at home this season. That is why there is so much value with the Clippers in this spot. The Clippers are 1-0 in Utah when Chris Paul plays and now they also have Crawford. The Clippers also come into this game healthy while Utah is without Derrick Favors and Marvin Williams. Favors is there best interior defender so he will be sorely missed against DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin.
BUCKS -4 at Hornets (-110) 2u
These teams met once earlier this season in Milwaukee and the Bucks came out on top by 4 points. So why would I take them as 4 point favorites on the road? In that game in Milwaukee Anthony Davis was 10 for 14 shooting with 28 points and 11 rebounds and the Hornets as a team shot over 53%. I don't think the Hornets will shoot over 50% again and they will obviously be without Anthony Davis. Milwaukee has found a premiere defender in Larry Sanders this season. Two games ago he had a triple double that included 10 blocked shots and last game against Boston he had 18 points, 16 rebounds, and 5 blocks. The guy is starting to remind me of Ben Wallace in his prime but with a little scoring ability. Milwaukee is without Beno Udrih who has been terrific off the bench this season. He will be missed more then people realize while he is out with an ankle injury. However, the Bucks just got back one of the best defensive players in the league in Luc Richard Mbah Moute. Kevin Durant has said that Moute defends him better then anyone in the league which is high praise. Moute also had a nice looking jumpshot against Boston his first game back. If he has developed a jumper then he will be a huge weapon this season. Think Bruce Bowen without the 3 point shot.
Last edited by AllLogicBets; 12-03-12 at 10:05 AM.
Adding another play on the Lakers/Rockets game tonight:
Lakers at ROCKETS pk (-110) 2u No point guards and no Gasol for the Lakers who are 1-4 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Houston. Meanwhile Houston is 6-3 ATS at home this season.
1-1 on the day. Almost got the huge over even with Harden and Lin combining to shoot 18%....so close. It is a good thing I have hit a run in college ball because I've been treading water in the NBA lately.
UNDER 196.5 Clippers at Bucks (-110) 2u Bucks games have been much lower scoring lately due to lineup changes. Their offensive minded role players Mike Dunleavy, Beno Udrih, and Tobias Harris are all likely out in this game. Mbah a Moute is back from injury and Larry Sanders has taken over a starting role at center and both of these players are all about defense. I think they can slow down the Clippers high scoring attack just enough to keep this one under. Don't expect too many easy buckets as the Bucks are well coached defensively and are giving up just 92ppg in their last 5 contests.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Reply With Quote