1. 11-13-12 05:10 PM #36
    EricZ116
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    Yesterday was not a great day for me here either. I like the under in Crooklyn quite a bit. New York I'm on the verge I need another half point to make it a filtered play, but I'm loving Knicks unders right now. As a life long Knicks fan who watches each game, I'll tell you first hand that the offensive proficiency won't last. One of these days, they'll stop hitting the threes and go back to the iso Melo offense. I do think the defense and pace are here to stay with Woodson, though, and those are great signs for the under.

    Washington/Charlotte I'm predicting 189.5, and Toronto/Indi I'm actually right at the 185.5 number so not enough value in either to have a definitive stance for you.

    Wrapping up 11/12
    Filtered:
    Milwaukee under 188.5 loss
    OKC under 195.5 win
    Denver under 202 loss
    Atlanta under 196 win
    Miami/Houston under 196 loss

    Utah/Toronto lean under (is a play at 193.5) loss
    Boston/Chicago lean over win
    Minnesota/Dallas lean under (is a play at 193) win

    Overall 11/12: 4-4
    Filtered: 2-3

    Overall: 27-17
    Filtered: 13-9

    I actually don't mind the last few not so great days, because even they haven't been so bad. I think it's a good sign of things to come, even the bad days don't seem so bad at this point.
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  2. 11-13-12 05:14 PM #37
    EricZ116
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    Just to clean up for tonight's plays:

    Filtered locked in plays:
    Cleveland/Brooklyn under 197
    Portland/Sacramento under 195.5
    San Antonio/LA Lakers under 195.5

    Adding:
    Knicks/Magic under 188.5 -     don't want to see this line get away from us, think it goes to 188 before it goes to 189.
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  3. 11-13-12 05:24 PM #38
    swingtrader
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    With the line movement in the NY game I have to take the under now as I see no value in the over anymore. I have been racking my brain all day about the lal and crooklyn games. I still like Crooklyn over but I am vexed about the Lakers. I should just hold off. D'antoni isn't with them yet and they are still gonna be in a state of flux.

    GL with your games tonight I hope we both hit well.
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  4. 11-14-12 08:34 AM #39
    EricZ116
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    Good day last night, will wrap up later.

    Early plays:

    Washington/Dallas under 192
    Indiana/Milwaukee under 188.5
    New Orleans/Houston under 187.5

    These are the tightest lines today that I've seen this year as far as variance from my model. The plays above I really can't afford to make them plays if they go any further down.

    Some additional leans:
    Under Memphis/okc
    Over Chicago/phoenix
    Under Atlanta/golden state
    Over Miami/la clippers
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  5. 11-14-12 01:54 PM #40
    EricZ116
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    Locking in Memphis under 195.5

    Would like another point for Charlotte over, Chicago over, and Miami over.

    Atlanta under will be a play at 192.
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  6. 11-14-12 03:26 PM #41
    EricZ116
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    Atlanta under 193 lock it in.
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  7. 11-14-12 05:33 PM #42
    EricZ116
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    Charlotte/Minnesota over 181.5


    lock them in.

    Other leans:
    Utah/Boston over 191.5 (189.5 is a play)
    Chicago/Phoenix over 191 (189 is a play)
    Miami/LA Clippers over 196.5 (would like 196)
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  8. 11-14-12 05:37 PM #43
    EricZ116
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    Quote Originally Posted by EricZ116 View Post
    Just to clean up for tonight's plays:

    Filtered locked in plays:
    Cleveland/Brooklyn under 197 loss
    Portland/Sacramento under 195.5 win
    San Antonio/LA Lakers under 195.5 win

    Adding:
    Knicks/Magic under 188.5 - don't want to see this line get away from us, think it goes to 188 before it goes to 189. win... thanks to the .5
    Filtered: 3-1

    Overall: 30-18
    Filtered: 16-10

    Hop on fellas...
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  9. 11-15-12 10:17 AM #44
    EricZ116
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    Knicks spurs under 194
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  10. 11-15-12 12:20 PM #45
    Khhhh
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    Very solid performance, the first thread I am checking every day.
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  11. 11-15-12 03:11 PM #46
    mosswoods21
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    knicks/spurs under up to 196.5, better get on it!!!
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  12. 11-15-12 04:31 PM #47
    EricZ116
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    Yep, filtered play at 196.5.

    Brooklyn game is too close ATM, and I'm completely avoiding Denver home games.
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  13. 11-16-12 11:41 AM #48
    EricZ116
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    Lot of tight lines today, and really busy at the office. Will try to post when I free up a bit.
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  14. 11-16-12 12:44 PM #49
    usfunca
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    Doing well so far. Looks like I may have to pay attention to this thread!
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  15. 11-16-12 01:08 PM #50
    EricZ116
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    Houston Portland under 197.5
    Phoenix la lakers under 201

    Atlanta sacramento will be a play but think well see 190 again let's wait for that.
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  16. 11-16-12 02:44 PM #51
    EricZ116
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    Atl under 190.5 lock it in
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  17. 11-16-12 04:48 PM #52
    EricZ116
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    Additional leans:

    GS/Minny under 186 (is a play at 187.5)
    NY/Memphis over 191.5 (is a play at 189.5)

    The rest are literally within .5 of my model which is unreal.
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  18. 11-16-12 05:55 PM #53
    mosswoods21
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    eric, what must a prediction have to make the play "filtered"?
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  19. 11-16-12 05:59 PM #54
    EricZ116
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    I like to see at least 3 points of variance from my model. I found that in my testing it was the best number for me to hit on around 60%.
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  20. 11-17-12 08:32 AM #55
    EricZ116
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    Early play:

    Denver/San Antonio under 200.5

    Leans:
    Memphis/Charlotte over (play at 190)
    Chicago/LA Clippers under (play at 196)
    Utah/Washington under (play at 191)
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  21. 11-17-12 11:18 AM #56
    EricZ116
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    Toronto/Boston over 187.5 is a play
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  22. 11-18-12 08:39 AM #57
    EricZ116
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    Brooklyn/Sacramento under 193
    Golden State/Oklahoma City under 199
    Houston/LA Lakers under 205.5
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  23. 11-18-12 04:03 PM #58
    EricZ116
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    Boston/Detroit over 189
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  24. 11-19-12 12:37 PM #59
    EricZ116
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    Houston Utah under 197.
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  25. 11-19-12 03:26 PM #60
    EricZ116
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    Indi Washington under 180.5
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  26. 11-19-12 05:37 PM #61
    EricZ116
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    Clippers/Spurs under 199
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  27. 11-21-12 01:54 PM #62
    EricZ116
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    Philly Cleveland over 183.5
    Denver minn under 192
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  28. 11-23-12 10:04 AM #63
    EricZ116
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    Cleveland/Orlando over 183.5
    San Antonio/Indiana under 190
    Sacramento/Utah under 194
    Minnesota/Portland under 196
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  29. 11-25-12 07:55 PM #64
    ask
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    Eric, I think you should backtest on a few more seasons. I myself have been working on a model in which I tested a specific method on 5 seasons back. The results varied from a win % of around 49-54.5%. So I guess 1200 games isn't representative.
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