Have been working on a totals model over the past 4 months. Considering how well this week has gone, I thought I'd start tracking my plays before my confidence drops.
Without going into detail, my model disregards basic stats like ppg,fg% etc.. instead, its primary focus is to predict the pace of the game. I've put a lot of effort into this and hopefully it spits out +ev bets for us. The biggest gripe about my model is that it requires high maintenance. Counting the exact no. of possessions for every game might seem like a pain in the ass but it's totally worth it.
Last years lockout affected season meant that there were some very soft totals in the opening week. Currently 12-3 on O/U's but will start from scratch.
btw, feel free to join this contest http://contests.sportsbookreview.com/nba2012-13-contest-4190/ if you want to track your nba plays on sbr.
fwiw, the goal for this season is to hit O/U's at 53-55%. having said that, model is still a work in progress so anything over breakeven will do (51.22%).
NBA totals can be incredibly stressful.. late fouls, OT, shooting efficiency are totally unpredictable on a game by game basis. Will try not to get emotionally attached to games
5 November Phoenix/Miami Over 199 -105 (1u) W Pace:101.25 Eff:98-123
Portland/Dallas Under 199.5 -110 (1u) L Pace:88 Eff:104-129
Had a big edge but Dallas pulled something out of their ass. Happy with this bet
Cleveland/LAC Under 196.5 -106 (1u) L Pace:95 Eff:114-106
Gut play... Really thought LAC would come out firing defensively after being abused by a Lee -Landry frontcourt.
Negative pace advantage, 3pt movement against. Just a bad bet in hindsight.
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Fade the public tonight!
YTD 2-3 -1.16u
O/U 1-2 -1.16u
6 November Orlando/Chicago Over 185.5 -113 (1u)
Detroit/Denver Under 199.5 -107 (1u)
They do, but it's just a rough estimation using the pace formula
6 November Orlando/Chicago Over 185.5 -113 (1u) W
Pace:90 Eff:103-110
no pace advantage. 50/50 bet
Detroit/Denver Under 199.5 -107 (1u) L Pace:90.25 Eff:108-120
big pace advantage (~4)
Tracking my selections on how well i predicted the pace vs the bookies 'implied pace'. Small sample size
Pace(good-avg-bad): (3-1-1)
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YTD 3-4 -1.23u
O/U 2-3 -1.23u
7 November Orlando/Minnesota Under 194.5 -105 (2u)
Phoenix/Charlotte Over 192.5 -109 (1u)
Toronto/Dallas Under 198.5 -105 (1u)
LAL/Utah Under 196.5 +100 (1u)
adding..
Cleveland/Golden state Over 199.5 -105 (1u)
Golden State -4.5 -115 (1u)
I know Bogut's game very well. Hes an absolute monster on the defensive end but isn't really suited to the fast paced GSW offense of old. GSW needs to adapt their playing style to suit him if they are any chance of making the playoffs.
Onto the game, this total was a no play but with varejao out, Bogut on limited minutes and the line dropping 3pts the edge has to go with the over. Jack playing is also great news.
Yesterday: 0-1 -1.08
ugh! Had really good pace too..
ah well onto tomorrow
Been writing/practising a wedding speech all night thanks to my awesome time management
stayed up an extra couple hours (3am local) to cap todays games cause I'm feeling lucky. Fingers crossed!
Friday: 9 November Brooklyn/Orlando Under 196 -105 (2u)
Milwaukee/Washington Under 191.5 -102 (1u)
Philadelphia/Boston Over 178.5 -105 (1u)
Miami/Atlanta Over 199 -101 (1u)
Lost the mil/was under thanks to a technical... that hurt!
Action points on O/U's at +103 so I'm doing something right. Just need some luck with those close ones.
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10 November Washington/Indiana Under 186 -105 (2u)
Detroit/Houston Over 192.5 -108 (1u) Boston/Milwaukee Over 191.5 -108 (1u)
Toronto Raptors -2.5 -108 (1u)
Chicago Bulls -8 -104 (1u)
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NBA Totals: tracking pace
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