[wguan2]

Third year doing this. Attempted to keep a thread last year but didn't make it very far at all. I'm going to try harder to do this along with keeping an excel file for everything. I have 4 system plays 2 of which are borrowed from Dexter so all credit goes to him for both of those (He's one of the few great cappers on this site for every sport, check him out if you haven't yet). Two of the other system plays I found researching and we'll see how it goes. If you have any insight please chime in. This is my favorite sport by far and the best time of the year. Good luck everyone!

10/30
Cleveland -5.5 1 unit
Lakers under 185.5 1 unit

[wguan2]

Miami -6 1 unit

Couldn't help myself with this bet. Really tried hard to stay away because it's square and the trend of championship teams on the first night but I just don't see Boston staying close in the end with Miami. It'll be close but I think this is a good bet.

[wguan2]

Here are the system plays. A1 and A3 are from Dexter, credits to him once again.

A1: Fade any team back to back on the road in Denver or Utah so long as Denver or Utah is off 1 days rest (2 units)
A2: Play any team favored by 5 or more coming off a night of scoring 80 points or less (2 units)
A3: Fade any team playing 4th game in 5 nights (2 units)
A4: Play over on any team on b2b as road favorites in both games (2 units)

[wguan2]

YTD 2-1 Great beginning to the season. The Lakers didn't play the defense I thought they would play. If the game went as expected with Lakers winning (whether the covered or not) I expected that that game would stick around the upper 170s but oh well. I also didn't get a good number on that game. Need to be more disciplined with waiting on the right number for totals.

[wguan2]

10/31/12

Utah -8.5 2x (A1)
Denver -1 1x
Indiana -2 1x
Spurs -7 1x
Kings +6.5 1x

BOL tonight everyone!

[wguan2]

Lakers -2.5 1x
Clips -4 1x

[wguan2]

YTD 5-4
+1.8 units

Long way to go.

[wguan2]

11/1/12

OKC San Antonio Over 201 1x

[wguan2]

YTD 5-5
+0.75 units

[wguan2]

11/2/12

Denver -6 (A2) 2x
Miami -5.5 2x
Phoenix/Detroit under 193 1x
Utah -3.5 1x
Memphis +1 1x
OKC/Portland over 201.5 1x

Big card tonight but I have confidence in these bets. We'll see what happens. First Friday of the year! BOL everyone!

[wguan2]

Houston/Atlanta under 203 1x

I really don't understand this line. It's been hit up from 199. I get that Atlanta is going to play much faster tempo and I get that they're pretty guard heavy this year but still, 203 is a huge number for two teams that aren't necessarily proven offensively. Houston had a great game the other night but can we really expect them to have a better game tonight or even on par with their last performance? They'll be playing their second road game after the hype that happened after Harden went off. I just don't see them putting up 100 in this game. As for Atlanta, I expect them to be running a little rusty tonight. This game is indeed unpredictable because of these factors but 203 is just too big of a number to pass up. I expect this line to be hit down to about 201 maybe even 200 before game time to be honest. Really didn't want to add another play to the card but its too much value in my eye so I'm rolling with it. Good luck on your plays.

PS. I'm actually kind of worried about this Phoenix/Detroit game. I might've gotten the wrong read and the line movement scares me. I may consider buying out closer to game time. We'll see. Good luck guys.

[wguan2]

Got buried last night but oh well. Long season.

Correction:
YTD 7-9 -3.55 units

Saturday 11/3/12

Portland +5.5 1x
Miami -8 1x
Brooklyn -5.5 1x
Nola/Chicago under 183.5 1x

[wguan2]

3-1 tonight

YTD 10-10 -1.6 units

Sunday 11/4/12

Philadelphia New York Under 187 1x
LAL/Detroit under 191 1x
Toronto -3 1x

[wguan2]

3-0 tonight

I went back and recalculated my YTD and +- unit count and it's all wrong so you can excuse all of that crap. All of my bets are at -105. There are rare occasions where they are juiced one way or the other but for the ease of calculations, I'm sticking to -105 with the assumption that the -108 and -102s even out in the long run. I've played 25 plays and here are the correct calculations.

YTD 13-11-1 (units 14-13-1)

+0.35 units

[wguan2]

11/5/12 Monday

Portland/Dallas over 198.5 1x
Sacramento -2 1x
Cleveland +10.5 1x
Memphis -5 1x

[vasilli07]

Like Grizz and Kings too.

[wguan2]

Like Grizz and Kings too.

Good luck buddy!

[wguan2]

Eff. Forgot to post Sixers -2.5 1x. I'll think about whether to add it in. No one cares about the thread anyway lol but people tend to hate it when you add late plays into thread records even though some people add live bets in.

[wguan2]

Added a unit to Sacramento -2 so a total of 2x now.

[vasilli07]

Looking good for you today.

[wguan2]

3-1-1 tonight

YTD 16-12-2 (Units 17-14-3)
+2.3 units

Good luck tomorrow everyone.

[wguan2]

Denver -10 1x
Chicago/Orlando Under 187.5 1x

[wguan2]

Just woke up from a nap lol, he line movement on that Chicago/Orlando game was insane. I've always been pretty weary of late line movement but in terms of totals the fact that it sky rocketted back up to 187.5 isn't a good sign in my opinion. I thought I had that line well read too. Oh well, you win some, you lose some. I've actually kept track of my record on whether or not I beat the closing line and I'm doing great right now. Results are so-so but as long as I beat the line, i should come out ahead in the long run in terms of those plays.

I can't say enough about how much I've learned from some of the cappers on this site. Specifically, Dexter and LTA. Both are a wealth of knowledge in terms of reading and predicting lines and managing bankrolls. Unfortunately LTA isn't here anymore. Bleh.

As of right now, OKC is ahead by 13 at the end of the quarter. I actually had OKC -8.5 1x originally but I guess it would be frowned upon to put this bet into the record since I'm THAT late lol. We'll see. I may need to come up with a rule to this because I effing suck at keeping up with this thread and making sure I get picks in before the game.

[wguan2]

I decided to include the OKC play. For late plays I'm 1-1 anyway so... whatevs.

18-13-2 (Units 19-15-3)

+3.25 units

Huge card tomorrow. Can't wait to start looking at it. Got some leans but gotta see how things play out. Good luck everyone!

[vasilli07]

Like to see your leans. My lean is Jazz and Hornets.

[wguan2]

Locked these in last night:

SA/LAC over 200.5 1x
Lakers/Utah under 195.5 1x
Memphis/Milwaukee under 198 1x

I got beat by the Lakers line pretty badly. Didn't expect that. I know Utah has been scoring at home and Lakers defense just isn't there right now but I just don't see this game being a shootout. It's the lakers first road game without Steve Nash so there's two scenarios in my mind, either Lakers struggle and get blown out something like 100-85 or Lakers pick it up and play better D and Utah struggles with their shot ending it in the early 90s like 98-93 type of game.

[wguan2]

Locked this in just now:

Dallas -7 (A3) 2x

I missed this and totally took a shit line. Damn it. But I'm glad Lowry is out.

[wguan2]

Got leans on New Orleans but the line movement is odd.
Leans on Detroit, Golden State, Milwaukee, Miami under, Orlando

[wguan2]

Now that I look at everything a little more, I'll probably play one more and that'll come down to either Orlando, Detroit, or Miami Under. The other plays are coin flips in reality. Good luck everyone. I'll update before gametime.

[pip2]

One thing I've noticed about the Lakers past couple of games (cost me 20 units on one under bet) is that Mike Brown seems to be directing them to end the game fouling for possessions, even when the game is out of reach. But maybe now that the Lakers have won a game, Brown will ease up on that...

[wguan2]

Detroit +6 1x
Denver +2.5 1x

Card Complete. Good luck tonight everyone. Need to start picking it up on these big card nights.

[wguan2]

One thing I've noticed about the Lakers past couple of games (cost me 20 units on one under bet) is that Mike Brown seems to be directing them to end the game fouling for possessions, even when the game is out of reach. But maybe now that the Lakers have won a game, Brown will ease up on that...

I'm really not optimistic about this play. Hedging it with a bad middle possible is not completely out of the question right now. I'll continue to look at the line movement but I'm just not feeling that great about it. Mike Brown in general pisses me off. (I'm a lakers fan)

[wguan2]

Wow I'm losing lines like crazy today. Really aggravated about the Lakers line steaming up like this. Rough day. Hopefully I get lucky tonight

[wguan2]

Gonna go out on a limb and take Nets +10 1x

[wguan2]

Okc -2.5 1x
Lac over 201