[Jay Edgar]

NOTES (of caution)

Once the season gets rolling I plan to rank all 30 teams daily, based on their last 10 games. (Each team gets a weighted gamescore for each game and the last ten gamescores are weighted for recency and averaged). Until the team plays ten games in 2006-07, segments of last season are subbing in as past performance. So last season's play will matter in these rankings, on a decreasing basis, for the first three weeks of the season.

Earlier this month I retrofitted my revised moneyline formula onto a seven-week stretch of last season. That test showed the moneylines working best as a betting tool when they state a win-probability 5%-20% different from the true money line. When the difference was less than 5% or more than 20% the results were less impressive.

Tuesday night my Laker line gives them a 57% chance to win - which is more than 20% better than the market (Pinny currently has them at 34% to win). Thus the potential play on the Lakers is in the "too good" range. We'll see. The ML on the Lakers would have to drop to +171 to get into the key range.

The ML on the Bulls would have to rise to +262 to get 5% away from my moneyline and into the key range.

Note that these numbers do not take any account of injuries or fatigue. That will be the case all year,

Until we get 10 games into the season, I am treading very lightly.

RANKINGS prior to 10.31.06 games

1 SAN
2 DET
3 DAL
4 PHX
5 MIA
6 CLE
7 NJN
8 MEM
9 SAC
10 LAX

11 LAC
12 DEN
13 CHI
14 WAS
15 UTH
16 IND
17 MIL
18 NOK
19 PHI
20 ORL

21 SEA
22 HOU
23 BOS
24 GSW
25 MIN
26 TOR
27 ATL
28 CHA
29 NYY
30 POR

PROJECTED SU WIN % for 10.31.06
MIA .674
LAX .570

EDGAR LINES for 10.31.06
(FAVORITE-POINTS-MONEYLINE-DOG)

MIA 5.9/207 CHI
LAX 2.8/132 PHX

PICKS
none so far

[Jay Edgar]

PICKS

(My personal general rule is token amounts only until at least Nov 15 and maybe until Thanksgiving, depending on how it goes. Exceptions will be rare.)

LAX E +165 1/4 unit

[moses millsap]

57% for the Lakers? Interesting stuff. I am tempted by the under in that game somewhat.

[Jay Edgar]

57% for the Lakers?

In round numbers, it'd be 54-46% for the Suns on a neutral court. PHX is just under 20% worse on the road and the Lakers are 24% better at home. Do a bunch of rounding and the overall shift to the Lakers is 11%.

[adriano]

Those are stats from last year essentially.

57%, but how is it gonna happen?

Kobe comes into game after playing no part in training games and wins it against the Suns? I doubt it.

[Jay Edgar]

Those are stats from last year essentially.

They are stats from last year totally.

Weighted to emphasize the latter parts of last year, but still, yes -- for now there's no other reliable objective information to use. Tread lightly.

[bigboydan]

Whats your thoughts on the total in this game Jay?

[Jay Edgar]

Whats your thoughts on the total in this game Jay?

Don't have any coherent ones, BBD.

New ball and Kobe's rust suggest the under. Likelihood of a close game and PHX commitment to up-tempo suggest the over. If you have to do it, maybe keep a close watch and think about jumping in at halftime?

EDIT:
Just saw Ganchrow's take -- hard to argue with that.

[isetcap]

This is going to be fun this season!

[juuso]

Good luck Jay Edgar. I also took Lakers ml small.

My formulas gave me lakers around ~41% which is good enough for a play to me. Normally it would be higher playing at home, but i adjusted it down because of uncertainty of Kobe's form and other injuries in the team.

[Jay Edgar]

LAX E +165 1/4 unit

Or, at twice that price. Whatever.

Yikes.

[isetcap]

Great start, Jay! There weren't many jumping on the Lakers moneyline tonight.