1. #1
    skyscrapers
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    Sky's Random NBA Play Of The Day

    This will be an experiment that I would like to attempt beginning this NBA season.
    Once again this is only an experiment so we may end up making a bit of money of lose a ton...I simply don't know.

    Everybody who decides to lay a bet on a certain play has their own opinion to justify their play. Fair enough.
    Yet there's always going to be someone who would disagree and will have their take on the opposite play.
    So far we agree that there will be no consensus on handicapping...that's just human nature.
    We have people who spend hours and hours capping games but ends up in the red at the end
    while some of us just follows blindly without much knowledge but comes out in the black.
    Is there really a true and quantifiable advantage to capping?
    Some of us use the knowledge to fade the public while others will flock to put money on the favorite.

    In essence, sports betting is gambling. One will never know the end result regardless of the amount of knowledge.
    Guys in here always says it's better to flip a coin, draw a card, roll a dice or even let their dog decide the
    plays to have a better chance at winning than to follow so and so handicapper. Is that a fact or fallacy?
    Because of that, I am going to completely remove the human aspect of handicapping.

    Simply put, through the use of a programmed random number generator: the game, the type of bet and the unit sizes will be completely randomly selected without any sort of handicapping, information, knowledge or bias. It will be completely unpredictable and random.

    Details on next post...

  2. #2
    crackerjack
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    System sounds very promising...blindly following.

  3. #3
    skyscrapers
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    I'm going to use the NBA pre-season schedule on Oct. 24 as an example.

    STEP 1
    Total 7 games on the slate.
    I'm going to program the random number generator (RNG) so that the highest number (T) will be lesser than or equal to 7.
    I'm going to run the RNG until I get a same number to come out five times.
    That number will correspond to the game we will choose to make a bet on.
    That will be determined alphabetically in ascending (A to Z) fashion for the home team city for that day.
    Therefore (1) = Brooklyn Nets
    (7) = Oklahoma City Thunder

    Let's say (4) is ultimately the number that is randomly selected which means we'll make a play on the Miami Heat game.

    STEP 2
    Since there are only 4 principal ways to make a play...road team points, home team points, over & under
    we'll adjust (T) to be lesser than or equal to 4 for the 4 possible outcomes.
    Again I'm going to run the RNG until I get a same number to come out five times.
    (1) will always be a play on the road team points
    (2) home team points
    (3) total over
    (4) total under

    Let's say (2) is the number that is selected by the RNG which mean we'll make a play on the Miami Heat points

    STEP 3
    We'll determine the unit size with 4 possible outcomes.
    Again I'm going to run the RNG until I get a same number to come out five times.
    (1) 1 unit
    (2) 2 units
    (3) 3 units
    (4) 4 units

    Let's say (3) comes out so therefore we'll lay 3 units on the Miami Heat to cover the point spread against the
    Washington Wizards for our Random Play Of The Day.

    Once the play has been determined, the only human decision-making is to see if we're going to lock in the play ASAP or
    wait until the last minute to try to get a better line or better odds.

    Simple...now let see where it'll take us beginning Oct. 30...GL

  4. #4
    skyscrapers
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    Quote Originally Posted by crackerjack View Post
    System sounds very promising...blindly following.
    Not exactly a system but somewhat of an experiment that I'm very curious to see the outcome of.
    Essentially will randomization outbet a knowledgeable capper??
    Any input or feedback are welcome

  5. #5
    crackerjack
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    Quote Originally Posted by skyscrapers View Post
    Not exactly a system but somewhat of an experiment that I'm very curious to see the outcome of.
    Essentially will randomization outbet a knowledgeable capper??
    Any input or feedback are welcome
    It was sarcasm... I am interested to see how you do. Theoretically you should win half your bets.

  6. #6
    SiMON2g
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    Will follow, good luck.

  7. #7
    skyscrapers
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    Alright, let's get this experiment started!!!

    Oct. 30 Tue

    3* BOS +6.5 [-105]

  8. #8
    skyscrapers
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    Record: (0-1) -3.15*

    Oct. 31 Wed

    1* PHO -2 (-107)

  9. #9
    skyscrapers
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    Record: (0-2) -4.22*

    Nov. 01 Thu

    4* OKC/SA u204.5 (-107)

  10. #10
    skyscrapers
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    I completely forgot about posting

    Record: (1-2) -0.22*

    Nov 02 Fri.

    4* DEN/ORL u197 (-104)

  11. #11
    skyscrapers
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    Record: (2-2) +3.78*

    Nov. 03 Sat

    4* SAC +7.5 (-105)

  12. #12
    skyscrapers
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    Record: (2-3) -0.42*

    Nov. 04 Sun

    4* ORL -1 (-108)

  13. #13
    skyscrapers
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    Record: (3-3) +3.58*

    Nov. 05 Mon

    2* MIN +7.5 (-105)

  14. #14
    skyscrapers
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    MIN wins outright last night!!

    Record: (4-3) +5.58*

    Nov. 06 Tue

    2* DET +10.5 (-105)

  15. #15
    skyscrapers
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    Record: (4-4) +3.48*

    Nov. 07 Wed

    4* TOR/DAL o198 (-110)

  16. #16
    skyscrapers
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    Record: (5-4) +7.48*

    Nov 08 Thu

    3* OKC/CHI u190.5 (-107)

  17. #17
    NoobieMan
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    You seem to have good results for the moments. I like this kind of bets which is random. No analysis. I'll try to follow you.
    Good luck

    Ps: Sorry but English is not my language.

  18. #18
    skyscrapers
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    Quote Originally Posted by NoobieMan View Post
    You seem to have good results for the moments. I like this kind of bets which is random. No analysis. I'll try to follow you.
    Good luck

    Ps: Sorry but English is not my language.
    Ya Noobie. After losing the first 2 games to start the season I was doubting that this experiment is gonna work. So far I'm pleasantly surprised it's been making me over $1K so far with no capping whatsoever!! Seems like some people are right in saying they rather roll a dice than follow some crappy capper .

    It's a nice start but very early in the season so we'll see...

    Record: (6-4) +10.48*

  19. #19
    Lakers714
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    This has to be a joke right? I'm not saying by any means that I wanna see u lose; I want everyone to win. However, u have to cap games if u want to win in the long run. This can only work for a short period of time. Like the very first post mentioned, there is never going to be a consensus, but u still have to cap the games if u wanna keep doing this for profit year after year. My only advice is money management. The most important key in sports betting, IMO. BOL to u though.

  20. #20
    skyscrapers
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakers714 View Post
    This has to be a joke right? I'm not saying by any means that I wanna see u lose; I want everyone to win. However, u have to cap games if u want to win in the long run. This can only work for a short period of time. Like the very first post mentioned, there is never going to be a consensus, but u still have to cap the games if u wanna keep doing this for profit year after year. My only advice is money management. The most important key in sports betting, IMO. BOL to u though.
    Hey Lakers, I'm not disagreeing with you. I still cap games and will always cap for my own bets. Like I said before this is an experiment to see if it's better off to just randomly selecting games to bet than following a so-called professional capper.

    Of course money management is very important so that's why there are only 4 units to randomly choose from in this experiment which is fairly average in terms of what many cappers out there do. I myself bet on a 4-unit scale as well.

    Nov. 09 Fri
    3* PHO -4 (-103)

  21. #21
    skyscrapers
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    Season: (6-5) +7.39*

    Nov. 10 Sat

    4) SA/POR u196.5 (-106)

  22. #22
    skyscrapers
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    Seems to be picking a lot of 4's lately

    Season: (6-6) +3.15

    Nov. 11 Sun

    4) MIA/MEM u195 (-106)

  23. #23
    skyscrapers
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    Season: (7-6) +7.15

    Nov. 12 Mon

    1* DAL -7 (-104)

  24. #24
    Lee Jones
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    This is great lol.. I think i might try simulating games on nba (xbox) and take the winner for my experiment. Best of luck!

  25. #25
    skyscrapers
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee Jones View Post
    This is great lol.. I think i might try simulating games on nba (xbox) and take the winner for my experiment. Best of luck!
    Let me know how it's working out!!

  26. #26
    skyscrapers
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    Season: (7-7) +6.11*

    Nov 13 Tue

    1* ORL +7 (-105)

  27. #27
    skyscrapers
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    Season: (7-8) -5.06*

    Nov. 14 Wed

    2* CHI/PHO o188 (-110)

  28. #28
    skyscrapers
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    Season: (8-8) +7.06*

    Nov. 15 Thu

    4* DEN -3 (-115)

  29. #29
    skyscrapers
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    Season: (8-9) +2.46*

    Nov. 16 Fri

    4* PHO/LAL o201 (-106)

  30. #30
    skyscrapers
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    Season: (9-9) +6.46*

    Nov. 17 Sat

    3* UTH/WSH o189.5 (-105)

  31. #31
    skyscrapers
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    Season: (9-10) +$3.31*

    Nov 18 Sun:

    2* CLE/PHI o190.5 (-109)

  32. #32
    skyscrapers
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    Forgot to post again

    Season: (9-11) +1.13*

    Nov. 19 Mon

    4* LAC +4.5 (-105)

    Season: (10-11) +5.13*

    Nov. 20 Tue
    3* PHI -5.5 (-103)

  33. #33
    skyscrapers
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    Season: (11-11) +8.13*

    Nov. 21 Wed

    2* BKY/GS o195.5 (-110)

  34. #34
    skyscrapers
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    Should have held off the play until closer to game time.

    Season: (11-12) +5.93*

  35. #35
    skyscrapers
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    Nov. 23 Fri

    4* MEM -4.5 (-108)

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