[cocknocker]

For Saturday's opening night, I have to roll with strong home teams if I am going to roll with a team at all. In the WNBA it's all about movement. You can pick up some stats here and ther that are useful, but it all comes down to steam. BigMoney is very good at watching the line movement. I like situational plays pretty much the same as I do with the NBA. There's no expert system to save your ass in wagering on this sport but it is fun and easier than NBA to bet on.

For Saturday, I did see one move that has me intrigued. The Detroit Shock winners of the whole enchilada last year over my Silver Stars (Becky Hammon is hot), and I was sad for awhile because I was thoroughly convinced that San Antonio would play better than they did. that's neither here nor there.

Detroit came out favored in this game at Detroit-1.5 6/3/09 at the LVSC 10:24am. The line at LVSC is now Los Angeles-4.5. Now that's steam. The off shores have responded by making the Sparks a -5.5 favorite at some sites. Based upon the steam of the move and the Sparks new running style without Leslie to slow them down, I would take the game saw it in half and take them for the 1st half. The Sparks are notorious for getting big first half leads and then giving it all away when they get back door'd because of lacksadasical play down the stretch.

Sparks -3 1st half

The Mystics and the Sun are two teams with very opposite styles of play. The Sun are an up and down running team especially at home, and the Mystics can't shoot the side of a barn. So they kind of cancel each other out a bit. Bad shooting leads to the same thing as turnovers and that's long rebounds and breakways. The line started out at 149 at some places and is now 154. I like the chances of an over happening in this one.

Mystics/Sun over 154

[HoulihansTX]

Sparks -4.5
Mercury -2

[tbill11]

So explain to me how to judge movement...I've always looked at line movements as being important, but never really understood what they mean. Take the Sparks line, it's moved towards them, making them a bigger and bigger favorite as time goes on. Why would Vegas make that line movement...is it because of the public or because they feel that LA has a bigger chance of winning? And on a line movement like that, which side would have the majority of public betters on it?

Thanks, I'm a bit of a novice when it comes to line movement...just want to get better so I can take advantage of WNBA betting.

[X-Rated]

CK which site do you use to see like movement for the WNBA? Thanks.

[pho3nix32]

nice one CK, a home for the WNBA

[pho3nix32]

line: sa@pho 163
pick: 163 over

Opening night jitters? Nah...the veterans of both teams are all coming back namely the Mercury's Taurasi and Pondexter along with the Star's Hammon (a hottie indeed), Young and Johnson. Look forward to a nice run-n-gun ballgame between these 2 clubs. Phoenix is 8-2 on the over at home in last 10 games.

[texhooper]

The Sparks are notorious for getting big first half leads and then giving it all away when they get back

and they play outta l.a., huh? interesting...sounds all too familiar.

and man, with line movement like this that you have pointed out, i might have to jump on board. i wonder if the books actually lose money on this sport with what appears to be very sharp action in places, which is perfect for us, the no-good degenerate steam-chasers.

[jcygts6]

My plays

Sides:
LA -5
Phoenix -2
Sacramento -1.5

Totals:
Minnesota under 152.5
Phoenix under 163

[cocknocker]

The only thing that bothers me about this Sparks game for the whole game is that the moneyline and the points don't match up, despite the steam. That is why i didn't take the whole game spread. -235 is indicative of a "soft" 5 point line, or a little less than the -240 required for a line to be a 5 point line. The smart play for those taking the Sparks for the game is to simply take the moneyline instead of the points.

[cocknocker]

Somebody find us a site that gives numbers for consensus on sides and totals and the moneyline other than Sportsinsights. I am starting to not trust them as they didn't show the true movement of the line from Detroit -1.5 to Sparks -5.5. I need to see where the money is going in a true fahion, not just some bogus shit like I have seen out of Sportsinsights while trying to research this game. VegasInsider doesn't give a BT movement for them either..

[cocknocker]

CK which site do you use to see like movement for the WNBA? Thanks.

I am looking for a new one now.

[cocknocker]

Indiana Fever's line is off too. A -200 moneyline is usually accompanied by a spread of -4 not -5. According to the steam, a road favorite's line should not go up in number unless the moneyline dictates it. it should not have a freedom of it's own and operate independently. For that I am almost 100% sure that Atlanta is the minority among the bettors. The fact that the incorrect number is on top of a key number tells me that this game is one of those early season surprises with the number involved. Atlanta looks to be the play.


BTW I got a line of Sparks-2.5 for the 1st half.

[peeiempee]

I'm tailing you to the dot in WNBA. Let us know if its an actual play

[jasont]

I'll take the shock at +195, candace parker was a HUGE part of the team and she's not playing the first month. Too much hype is going into all of the players signed/and on the current roster, feels like the Lakers of the NBA. Small play on Shock who are without Braxton.

[suckatmyjob]

CK,

Havent really done WNBA but going by line movement is usually my thing too

I can see your thoughts on the Detroit/LA and as we see LA won so base on that same line movement would tonight be Phoenix as the play b/c it opened as a pick and now it's Phoenix -4

in hte WNBA it seems such a slow pace man can any of these games today be over?

I dont know still experimenting I see Indiana -4.5 in most places

going by vegasinsider seems like the Chicago/Minnesota game opened at 154

[million2one]

Thanx CK for the LA pick,

I can't believe I'm thinking about WNBA, but why not.

Have you looked at how a JM system or Cartytay system (any three game road trip) would fare in the WNBA??

Where's BigMoneyMan, I thought he was king in the WNBA??

[RoagBettor]

Hit my 2 team/5 pt teaser Sparks PK/CT-WA over 149.5 (that one I sweated out!).

[pho3nix32]

nice way to start the season

[HoulihansTX]

Sparks -4.5 W
Mercury -2 W

2-0 to start. Both blowouts. This is how we start a season. Congrats to everyone who is withdrawing from the ATM, or WNBA. Hahaha

[peeiempee]

WNBA got me in the green today to be up 1 unit overall with a horrendous day in bases. Hope WNBA continues to be an automatic atm machine. Cause MLB is my automatic donating machine.

[HoulihansTX]

line: sa@pho 163
pick: 163 over

Opening night jitters? Nah...the veterans of both teams are all coming back namely the Mercury's Taurasi and Pondexter along with the Star's Hammon (a hottie indeed), Young and Johnson. Look forward to a nice run-n-gun ballgame between these 2 clubs. Phoenix is 8-2 on the over at home in last 10 games.

Great call Pho3