[beefcake]

Russia is at 30-1 at Bovada and as high as 35-1 at other sites.While the USA should in all intents and purposes win the GOLD, getting the Russians at this price is a hell of a good deal now.If they beat Brazil(-6.5 favs) they lock up the #2 seed, I think the game with Spain will be a coin flip so possibly they could get the #1 from group B, meaning they dont have to face the USA till the finals.You never know about the USA, they could run into a buzzsaw in the SF and in a one game anything can happen.
In the 2010 Worlds the USA were about 25 point favs and led by only 5 at the half.http://www.oddsportal.com/basketball...russia-401740/. In that game the russians did not have Kirilenko or new star Shved(plays for CSKA Moscow-Top Euro club).I do not think that the USA will be near that kind of fav if the Russians run the table.Plus there is always live betting to hedge at the end of the first Q or Half time.Since the USA was only up by 5 last time they played, a hedge could be assured then with a futures price of +3000 in your back pocket for a small profit.

[Goat Milk]

there's no value if a play is 100% to lose. You could tell me I could put up $10 to win $50,000 on Russia to win Gold and I still wouldn't do it. Understand the game. This is not women's tennis where anything can happen.

[beefcake]

Ever watch Greece/USA in 2006 Worlds..?

[Goat Milk]

Worlds?

I don't see Kobe Bryant on the court. I see a 20 year old Lebron James and a bunch of 2nd and 3rd year players...

That is all.

[beefcake]

4-0 bitch and #1 seed , avoids USA till finals..they were 40-1 before todays games..

[rm18]

Might be a good bet technically but they might be +2000 just to beat USA so wait until the elimination and ride the MLs

[rm18]

If USA does not play better on defense they can be beaten by Russia or France who both play NBA caliber defense. Lithuania has the worst defense in the whole Olympics and they are hanging around. Of course USA is the best but if Russia or France goes 12-24 from 3 or the USA misses a ton of jumpers they probably can win.

[beefcake]

Rm18 that was my whole point before Goatmilk tried to bury me.I never expect Russia to win the gold.The point of the bet was to get the value on the future at a very small investment then hedge out in the Gold medal game,because as you can see(especially after today) the 35-1 shot will be more than enough to hedge out for a small profit in the Gold medal game if Russia plays the USA.If the USA were for some ungodly reason to get upset then this future becomes a gold mine.

[Goat Milk]

cake there's no point. Russia will never win the gold. Ever. If they get to the finals you are throwing money away betting them even if they are +50,000. It's not a sport where anything can happen. Not when the best players from the US are participating. If you took Lebron and Kobe and Melo and CP3 and Durant off the team and replaced them with some young 22 year olds from the nba that are up-and-coming stars then you can make a case that there isn't much veteran presence and leadership.

This isn't that type of sport. Olympic basketball is not about finding value in a team. You are way out of your league here. You lose money even if Russia gets to the finals because they lose in the finals 100%. You don't seem to understand the point of a hedge. It's based on probability.

A hedge doesn't make sense when certainty is involved. And neither does the concept of value. Certainty.

[thetrinity]

Goat ur making urself look pretty foolish here.

Can i bet u 10 dollars to win 50k on russia taking this down?

[darko3131]

Rm18 that was my whole point before Goatmilk tried to bury me.I never expect Russia to win the gold.The point of the bet was to get the value on the future at a very small investment then hedge out in the Gold medal game,because as you can see(especially after today) the 35-1 shot will be more than enough to hedge out for a small profit in the Gold medal game if Russia plays the USA.If the USA were for some ungodly reason to get upset then this future becomes a gold mine.

I'd bet that if the USA makes the Gold medal game you'd get better value taking Russia ML for 3 straight games but it won't even take an ungodly reason for the USA to get knocked out in the semis they may play Spain. That would be pretty huge for you. I don't mind the play GL

[Rolo1984]

I'd bet that if the USA makes the Gold medal game you'd get better value taking Russia ML for 3 straight games but it won't even take an ungodly reason for the USA to get knocked out in the semis they may play Spain. That would be pretty huge for you. I don't mind the play GL

Sure but you have to take into account that Russia could be knocked out earlier as well. America is currently valued @1.09-1.1 and for russia you get 44-1-50-1 odds. So the odds of russia not reaching the finals is immensly bigger than USA not reaching the finals.

@beefcake: I dont know much about basketball other than I like to watch it. But at these olympics where teams are mixed it is really difficult to judge how teams which have never played eachother will matchup. You have some friendly games like USA-spain but it doesnt tell us much. Not too start about usa-russia. You cant say 'team A get this starplayer and will make a difference'

The thing is I observe in sportsbetting is people rather take big odds for a big return than take smaller odds. Simply since big odds seem appealing.

Again no idea if your bet has value. But your reasoning seems to me a little bit too simple. Since there are so many factors influencing your bet also factors difficult to take into account since there are so many scenarios possible. If you want to hedge out you are basically dependent on USA to be knocked out. As long as they are still in you will still be getting huge odds on Russia to win gold but still run the risk thet are getting KO'ed before the finals.