[rick_213]

Anyone thinking that Dallas might actually win this game OUTRIGHT? Denver might get a little test from Dallas tonight. I am not sure if Dallas will win but it might be closer than everyone expects. If Dallas were to pick up a win tonight it would make for a much more interesting Game 6. I know that Denver is very strong at home so I am thinking stick with the under for the game, but since the money line is enticing i might wait till right before tip and place a small wager on dallas for the game as well.

[EaglesPhan36]

Less than 10% chance in my book. Dallas played them well at home, but on the road is another story. Mavs sucka the kawk on the road.

[LT Profits]

Almost no chance. This is one of rare cases where a -500 favorite may actually have value.

Personaly, I laid -8.5.

[rick_213]

i am also thinking b/c don't forget Dallas did beat San Antonio twice on the road last series..but i am sure the argument is that San Antonio is no Denver.

[LT Profits]

Yeah but Denver is unbeatable at home right now. 15-0 since march 10 with an average winning margin of more the +15 points, and their CLOSEST home playoff win has been by 12 points (and even that game was not as close as final score in Game 2).

[Razz_Donkey]

Dallas would have to win 1 in six times to break even with a +500 line. Considering they are 1-7 this year against Denver and can barely keep it close at home I see no value in this line. Dallas needs a +900 or higher, IMO, to have any value here.

[DeeWizzle]

Agree. Little to no chance. I had Dallas ml last game but i like Denver to come out with intensity and on a mission to send the Mavs fishing. Tru Dallas beat the Spurs at home, but the Spurs were a shell of themselves. A old injury rittled team while Denver is the total opposite.

[wrongturn]

I agree that Dallas has too little winning chance to justify +530. Remember that Denver keeps playing 1-on-1 on Dirk because they don't even need to double him in order to win. That shows how confident they are playing Dallas.

On the other hand, I think Dallas +10 and 1H +5 have good value, because they usually stay close.

[rick_213]

I would add that i might be biased in my opinion b/c i am hoping denver wins in 7 so i can take them over la in the next round at better odds!

My last point would be that denver blew out dallas the past two games at home and i would say it would be tough to do that three straight times to the same team.

Also, dallas has not played really well in any games this series, so they are due to show up for at least one game in the series. No?

[wrongturn]

Dallas played not too bad in Denver in the first two games. They were still in the game in early 4Q, and they shot ball 48%. I don't know how they can play any better.