1. 06-21-12 04:46 PM #1
    TheMoneyShot
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    ESPN On Facebook Reporting Public On Miami At 81.2% Game 5

    A lot of people believe Heat will close out the series tonight.

    What does Vegas say? I think we're headed back to OKC boys.
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  2. 06-21-12 04:54 PM #2
    paco
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    Okc in 7
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  3. 06-21-12 04:55 PM #3
    SBR Lou
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    Not sure about Vegas, but the SBR Sportsbook has 3429854873275723 bets on Miami vs a small handful on OKC.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: dodger33
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  4. 06-21-12 04:56 PM #4
    MCherry281
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Lou View Post
    Not sure about Vegas, but the SBR Sportsbook has 3429854873275723 bets on Miami vs a small handful on OKC.
    Well of course they do since u guys moved the line
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  5. 06-21-12 05:00 PM #5
    TheMoneyShot
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Lou View Post
    Not sure about Vegas, but the SBR Sportsbook has 3429854873275723 bets on Miami vs a small handful on OKC.
    Lou! Every time you guys give out a ridiculous line like that... I always fade it! From history.... I just FADE FADE FADE... what's scary is that... you guys PAY PAY PAY out... It's like Christmas every day at the SBR Sportsbook! If Miami wins tonight... are you guys closing down?
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  6. 06-21-12 05:01 PM #6
    j37hr0
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    The SBR book has been begging for Miami bets since game 2 with that +310 ML. And I appreciate it.
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  7. 06-21-12 05:04 PM #7
    SlickFazzer
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    OKC ml
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  8. 06-21-12 05:08 PM #8
    SBR Lou
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    Quote Originally Posted by j37hr0 View Post
    The SBR book has been begging for Miami bets since game 2 with that +310 ML. And I appreciate it.
    Then by all means, pound MIA tonight and see what happens?
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  9. 06-21-12 05:12 PM #9
    Shafted69
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    http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/preview?gameId=320621014


    MIA 57 OKC 43



    ESPN Streak Cash

    MIA 50.5 OKC 49.5
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  10. 06-21-12 05:13 PM #10
    Jago2008
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    $40.49 $167.83 Pending 2 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/21/12 9:00pm NBA Basketball 509 Oklahoma City Thunder +145* <small>vs</small> Miami Heat
    Pending 6/21/12 7:05pm MLB Baseball 957 Tampa Bay Rays/Washington Nationals Under 7 +110* (M Moore - L must Start G Gonzalez - L must Start)
    Totals: $40.49 $167.83
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  11. 06-21-12 05:16 PM #11
    Speedy88
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    Why do people keep bringing up these percentages? ESPN viewers are different from people who gamble on the NBA games. Most the people voting on ESPN are probably in middle school.

    Most betting percentage sites show that the public is pretty split. People need to stop worrying about who the public is on, and just pick the right side.
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  12. 06-21-12 05:19 PM #12
    freeagent
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Lou View Post
    Not sure about Vegas, but the SBR Sportsbook has 3429854873275723 bets on Miami vs a small handful on OKC.
    If this is true, why is the line -1.5 for Miami when most books have -3/3.5? Wouldn't you want to move the line the other way to get OKC action, or at least post the line other books have.
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  13. 06-21-12 05:20 PM #13
    Jago2008
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    With all due respect, percentages DO MATTER. Fading the public is profitable over time, especially in the NBA. Lets see what happens tonight, with that said I will be the first to come back and congratulate you if both the over and Heat win.
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  14. 06-21-12 05:25 PM #14
    jjgold
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    All sharps on Okl Cty tonight
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  15. 06-21-12 05:26 PM #15
    romecloneout
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    sweating
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  16. 06-21-12 05:27 PM #16
    Shafted69
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    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/fp/fl...&pollId=141594



    OKC 52 MIA 48
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  17. 06-21-12 06:30 PM #17
    LT Profits
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    As for bets in the real world, OKC 52%, MIA 48%. Interestingly, 5 Dimes has it Miami 52, OKC 48 while the squarer shops have majority of bets on OKC.

    WagerWeb Spread Spread% ML ML% O/U O/U%
    Visitor: 3.5 -110 59% 145 38% 194.5-110 69%
    Home: -3.5-110 41% -165 62% 194.5-110 31%

    5 Dimes Spread Spread% ML ML% O/U O/U%
    Visitor: 3.5 -110 48% 150 57% 194-110 69%
    Home: -3.5-110 52% -170 43% 194-110 31%

    SIA Spread Spread% ML ML% O/U O/U%
    Visitor: 3.5 -110 52% 135 N/A 195-110 78%
    Home: -3.5-110 48% -149 N/A 195-110 22%

    BetUS Spread Spread% ML ML% O/U O/U%
    Visitor: 3.5 -110 57% 145 N/A 194.5-110 80%
    Home: -3.5-110 43% -165 N/A 194.5-110 20%
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  18. 06-21-12 06:38 PM #18
    wantitall4moi
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    anyone that believes any data as it pertains to gambling are kidding themselves. They would never give that info out, and if they do it is surely not meaningful in how they deliver it. It could go by sheer volume of individual plays, or it could be volume of actual cash, but I doubt it is either. I think these places just make up numbers and throw them out on a website to make people who bother to look them up think they have another 'secret' edge.

    If you look at this game from the most simplistic viewpoint then you have to bet OKC. For many many reasons. The only real reason(s) to bet Miami is that the game is in Miami and Miami is on a roll lately. Two pretty good reasons to be sure. But when you look at other factors they start stacking up in favor of OKC. Just a matter of if these factors come together for the Thunder tonight or not.

    I havent made a bet the whole play offs and I wont tonight either because while I like OKC to win I am not thrilled about the price I can get for them. +150 just isnt enough, if my guy would give me 160 I might take a flyer on it but he wouldnt give me more than what he saw at Pinnacle. Assuming he has a lot of money already on OKC as well but he didnt really say and i didnt prod. But suspect if I said I wanted Miami -150 he would give me all I wanted to take. But since I cant use that number anywhere I wont be throwing that at him either.
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  19. 06-21-12 06:41 PM #19
    convick
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jago2008 View Post
    With all due respect, percentages DO MATTER. Fading the public is profitable over time, especially in the NBA. Lets see what happens tonight, with that said I will be the first to come back and congratulate you if both the over and Heat win.
    According to you, who is the public on in this game? Its pretty much 50/50. Fade that..
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  20. 06-21-12 06:43 PM #20
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post

    All sharps on Okl Cty tonight

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  21. 06-21-12 06:46 PM #21
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi View Post
    anyone that believes any data as it pertains to gambling are kidding themselves. They would never give that info out, and if they do it is surely not meaningful in how they deliver it. It could go by sheer volume of individual plays, or it could be volume of actual cash, but I doubt it is either. I think these places just make up numbers and throw them out on a website to make people who bother to look them up think they have another 'secret' edge.

    If you look at this game from the most simplistic viewpoint then you have to bet OKC. For many many reasons. The only real reason(s) to bet Miami is that the game is in Miami and Miami is on a roll lately. Two pretty good reasons to be sure. But when you look at other factors they start stacking up in favor of OKC. Just a matter of if these factors come together for the Thunder tonight or not.

    I havent made a bet the whole play offs and I wont tonight either because while I like OKC to win I am not thrilled about the price I can get for them. +150 just isnt enough, if my guy would give me 160 I might take a flyer on it but he wouldnt give me more than what he saw at Pinnacle. Assuming he has a lot of money already on OKC as well but he didnt really say and i didnt prod. But suspect if I said I wanted Miami -150 he would give me all I wanted to take. But since I cant use that number anywhere I wont be throwing that at him either.
    Sports Insights is accurate, they actually pay the books to get access to parts of their databases. All percentages are percent of BETS, nobody gives out percent of money.
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  22. 06-21-12 06:46 PM #22
    qsilver335
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    OKC is where the value is tonight. Good luck tonight boys.
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  23. 06-21-12 07:02 PM #23
    wantitall4moi
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Sports Insights is accurate, they actually pay the books to get access to parts of their databases. All percentages are percent of BETS, nobody gives out percent of money.
    they might make those claims but I dont believe it. but in the end does it matter? It is akin to looking at the odds on a parimutuel board, it is very obvious there who is betting what and for how much money, doesnt mean the favorite always wins, at most places it isnt even close. 'smart' money is still hidden and that is why 'smart' money doesnt bet the favorites and if they do they pull it out and let the horse run up the track again before they decide to send him for the good pay off.

    Obviously that isnt the case in sportsgambling but know what team more people are betting on doesnt make one difference, even in these fairy tale cases of one team seemingly having all the money and action on them and the line still going the 'wrong' way. People have tried to track that for years and still no one has figured it out. because like I siad it is either made up or the numbers given are bogus most of the time.
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  24. 06-21-12 07:08 PM #24
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi View Post
    they might make those claims but I dont believe it. but in the end does it matter? It is akin to looking at the odds on a parimutuel board, it is very obvious there who is betting what and for how much money, doesnt mean the favorite always wins, at most places it isnt even close. 'smart' money is still hidden and that is why 'smart' money doesnt bet the favorites and if they do they pull it out and let the horse run up the track again before they decide to send him for the good pay off.

    Obviously that isnt the case in sportsgambling but know what team more people are betting on doesnt make one difference, even in these fairy tale cases of one team seemingly having all the money and action on them and the line still going the 'wrong' way. People have tried to track that for years and still no one has figured it out. because like I siad it is either made up or the numbers given are bogus most of the time.
    But having the percent of bets combined with line movements makes it easier to spot who the sharps are on (RLM being the most obvious). Obviously, they don't always win, but it is better to be on their side than against it, especially if you have a slow moving book.
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  25. 06-21-12 07:18 PM #25
    thetrinity
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    just see what bovada and sports interaction have compared to the greek and pinnacle and u can tell how much the public is on something, it aint rocket science.
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  26. 06-21-12 07:19 PM #26
    wantitall4moi
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    But having the percent of bets combined with line movements makes it easier to spot who the sharps are on (RLM being the most obvious). Obviously, they don't always win, but it is better to be on their side than against it, especially if you have a slow moving book.
    I ownt go down that road again, when I was betting baseball overnights at pinnacle I moved the line on every game I bet at least 3 cents, sometimes as much as a dime. I dont see how that makes me sharp, it just means I bet into overnight numbers against limited max limits with multiple accounts. And when people bet with me or even against me it didnt mean much either, although I suppose an argument could be made that ones betting the same side were following what they thought was steam. people betting against it were obviously looking for a 'value' play. I tracked those moves as I mentioned before and I was right around half the time, but I wasnt concerned about being right just being right about what side was going to continue to take action.

    trying to identify someone who is supposedly sharp is impossible, even if you coud track their everyplay you still wouldnt be able to figure out if they made a profit or not. most reputations are urban legends that just grew, these so called sharps lose just like everyone else, the difference is they always pay the least amount in vig on those losses which more often than not requires them betting both sides of the same game and then looking to get lucky.

    Like tonight guys could have had Miami -3 for +100 they could also have gotten OKC +3.5 for -102. THOSE are the best SHARP guys hammer the shit out of especially when they make themselves available. -3 +100 only means they needed +3 +101 or better to just bail out on, but they got the half point they needed for the side as well as very favorable odds. Of course +4 -107 would have been better, even +4 -110 but I doubt it gets there but in these series like this where there is a lot of money moving they can basically have both sides for free and only need one hit to make their month.
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  27. 06-21-12 07:20 PM #27
    The Kraken
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    Money, cant tell ya what I know but take Miami giving up to ten.
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  28. 06-21-12 07:55 PM #28
    j37hr0
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Lou View Post
    Then by all means, pound MIA tonight and see what happens?
    Ticket#:1528763
    Jun 21 09:00 PM    		 Internet / -1 Jun 14 07:29 PM NBA STRAIGHT BET
    [871] HEAT SERIES +235    		 11.00 / 25.85
    Ticket#:1539019
    Jun 21 09:00 PM    		 Internet / -1 Jun 20 07:41 PM NBA STRAIGHT BET
    [5100] MIAMI -1½-110    		 110.00 / 100.00

    If I win I'll get an SBR Poker hat!
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  29. 06-21-12 08:11 PM #29
    byronbb
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    Quote Originally Posted by convick View Post
    According to you, who is the public on in this game? Its pretty much 50/50. Fade that..
    50/50 when the ML is -171...A true split would see 61% on MIA, not 50.
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  30. 06-21-12 10:33 PM #30
    j37hr0
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    Money, cant tell ya what I know but take Miami giving up to ten.
    I really want to know how you know, what you knew.
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  31. 06-21-12 10:37 PM #31
    Jago2008
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    Just wow how can you predict Miami shooting over 55% 3s this game. Congrats.
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  32. 06-22-12 12:50 AM #32
    Leo Bello
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Lou View Post
    Not sure about Vegas, but the SBR Sportsbook has 3429854873275723 bets on Miami vs a small handful on OKC.
    Then why in the world do you have Miami -2. That is irresponsible!
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  33. 06-22-12 12:55 AM #33
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by j37hr0 View Post
    Ticket#:1528763
    Jun 21 09:00 PM    		 Internet / -1 Jun 14 07:29 PM NBA STRAIGHT BET
    [871] HEAT SERIES +235    		 11.00 / 25.85
    Ticket#:1539019
    Jun 21 09:00 PM    		 Internet / -1 Jun 20 07:41 PM NBA STRAIGHT BET
    [5100] MIAMI -1½-110    		 110.00 / 100.00

    If I win I'll get an SBR Poker hat!
    choices for U.S. deposit and get PRo status are just beyond awful
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  34. 06-22-12 12:58 AM #34
    Leo Bello
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    just see what bovada and sports interaction have compared to the greek and pinnacle and u can tell how much the public is on something, it aint rocket science.
    I'm a dummy, but I would have to say Trinity's post can be taken to the bank.
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  35. 06-22-12 01:01 AM #35
    daimoshokage
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    Okc in 7
    STUPID Dumbfukk!
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