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Miami will win tonight, but should be close. Quick observations
Durant has been an absolute assassin in these playoffs. But he is still weak defensively and has been exposed by Lebron in the first couple games. My question is what happens when his butter jump shot is just a little off. If I am a Thunder backer, I'm just a little worried that if Durant's jumper is off, the Thunder will really struggle to score on Miami's defense.
Westbrook was heavily criticized in gm 2. Before the series, I said that the Thunder were too young to win this series because of the magnitude of the moment (for all players other than KD). The Conf. Finals are much different than the Finals. Westbrook is taking too many shots. He's taking more shots than Durant, and you can win on a consistant basis with that formula.
Westbrook is far too emotional to win a ring right now--he's too caught up in all the highs and lows of the game and you have to be focused here. You can't let your emotions slip. You can see he's been celebrating on and1's like he's already won a ring, while Lebron and Wade don't even show a trace of emotion when they get an and1 or sick play.
Sefalosha needs to spend more time guarding Wade. I said before the series that I didn't think Brooks was smart enough to let Sefalosha guard Lebron in gm 1, but he did it. That's why I think like a coach. That simple adjustment to give Durant his legs for the offensive end and down the stretch which is why they won gm 1. However, Durant has to accept a challenge now because Wade is going to play lights out at home and Westbrook is not a good defender to be honest. He's very overrated on D.
James Harden needs a huge game.
Bosh and Battier are exposing Ibaka and Nick Collison as I said before the series started. Ibaka is a blocker, nothing more. He'll be in foul trouble if he hangs out in the paint OR Bosh/Battier will be camped out in the corner and Ibaka will have no chance.
Perkins--He can't play in this series too much. He's too much of a liability, because MIA don't play with a true C and their PF camps out near the perimeter.
Scott Brooks needs to go small? Yeah, but now you're opening up even more driving lanes for Bron and Wade. So you have to make a decision. Do you want to close off the shooters like Chalmers, Battier, Bosh? Or do you want to pack in the paint?
This is a starters series. Besides Harden and Haslem on some nights, there's no significant production off the bench for either team. Some players like Collison and James Jones can provide a spark for a few minutes, but whoever's starters play better (include Harden), that's who's going to win the game.
Tonight, I just can't see OKC holding Lebron and Wade to under 30. I think both will go for 30+ actually and Chalmers will have a big game. Bosh is going to do his thing as well.
Main thing for OKC is Durant. You can talk about Westbrook as much as possible but if Durant doesn't shoot a crazy 55% I don't see how OKC can stay in games honestly. Miami's defense is too good. And Durant relies on that jump shot so much--it can either win you a ring or not.
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Originally Posted by bryant81
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