1. 06-05-12 04:00 PM #1
    CrimsonQueen
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    Crimson Queen's WNBA 2012

    My NCAAB threads have all been documented money makers the last 2 years I've been posting. I beat WNBA last year hitting 59%, and this year I plan to do the same. I saw RAS was 8-12 (-6.85 Units) currently. Was already planning on beating them anyway, but they are gonna make it easy on me.

    I wait until every team has played 4 games before starting official plays. There were 3 unofficial games so far (where teams had played at least 3 games but not all had played 4 yet) and they went 2-1 with the one loss beating the closing line by 5 points. Anyhow, I play opening lines, so I'll generally be posting them a day in advance.

    There will be 1/1.5/2 Unit plays, sides and totals.

    Enough preamble.


    First play:
    1 Unit
    Seattle Storm +12

    Good luck!
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  2. 06-05-12 04:05 PM #2
    Coach Potato
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    good luck
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  3. 06-12-12 03:55 PM #3
    CrimsonQueen
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    1 Unit
    Sparks +7
    Storm +8

    Good luck!

    2012 WNBA record (0-1) [-1.1 Units]
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  4. 06-16-12 04:08 PM #4
    CrimsonQueen
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    1.5 Unit plays:
    Mercury +2.5
    Storm +10.5

    Good luck!

    2012 WNBA record (1-2) [-1.2 Units]
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  5. 06-18-12 03:11 PM #5
    CrimsonQueen
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    1 Unit
    Fever +5.5

    Good luck!

    2012 WNBA record (2-3) [-1.3 Units]
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  6. 06-18-12 03:20 PM #6
    bassfish
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    you pickingthe Fever for tomorrow night?

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  7. 06-18-12 05:41 PM #7
    CrimsonQueen
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    Yep bassfish, the model likes Fever tomorrow night. Good luck if you take em!
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  8. 06-19-12 10:12 PM #8
    Coach Potato
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    how well did you do last year?
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  9. 06-21-12 02:52 PM #9
    CrimsonQueen
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    Last year I made 10.50 units, hit 59.09% (52-36). Beat the closing line by .25 points on average and average score MOV was +1.97.

    1 Unit
    Silver Stars +4

    2012 WNBA record (3-3) [-0.3 Units]
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  10. 06-23-12 10:18 AM #10
    CrimsonQueen
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    Tonight:
    1 Unit
    Phoenix +11

    Good luck!
    2012 WNBA record (3-4) [-1.4 Units]
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  11. 06-24-12 09:07 AM #11
    CrimsonQueen
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    1.5 Units
    Dream +6.5

    1 Unit
    ATLANTA DREAM @ NY LIBERTY Over 146.5

    2012 WNBA record (4-4) [-0.4 Units]
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  12. 06-24-12 05:25 PM #12
    CrimsonQueen
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    2012 WNBA record (5-5) [+0.0 Units]

    Total was going WAY over in the first half...stopped scoring in the 2nd half though. Back to +0.
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  13. 06-24-12 05:27 PM #13
    Coach Potato
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    anything for the later games? kinda liking seattle - 7.5
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  14. 06-24-12 09:20 PM #14
    CrimsonQueen
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    Sorry, just saw this now. Model didn't have a play on that game, but hope you took it!
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  15. 06-25-12 02:35 PM #15
    CrimsonQueen
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    1 Unit
    Indiana +2.5

    2012 WNBA record (5-5) [+0.0 Units]
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  16. 06-25-12 03:25 PM #16
    Coach Potato
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    thanks and good luck
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  17. 06-26-12 02:25 PM #17
    CrimsonQueen
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    1.5 Units
    Fever +3

    1 Unit
    Mercury +19

    2012 WNBA record (5-6) [-1.1 Units]
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  18. 06-26-12 08:41 PM #18
    Coach Potato
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    lol how come you only play underdogs?
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  19. 06-27-12 02:44 PM #19
    CrimsonQueen
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    I play whatever the model tells me. The books inflate the dogs.

    I had 1 favorite pick so far this whole season, but it was a 0.5 Unit play, and I don't post those. (even though last year 0.5 Unit plays went 19-12, and this year they are now 4-3, I just don't trust 0.5 Unit plays enough to release them. Very small edge they should have, and they've definitely run hotter than they should)

    2012 WNBA record (6-6) [+0.4 Units]
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  20. 06-27-12 09:11 PM #20
    Coach Potato
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    nice day!!
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  21. 06-27-12 09:52 PM #21
    CrimsonQueen
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    Thanks

    2012 WNBA record (7-6) [+1.4 Units]
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  22. 06-28-12 02:22 PM #22
    CrimsonQueen
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    1.5 Units
    Washington +7.5
    1 Unit
    Mercury +11

    2012 WNBA record (7-6) [+1.4 Units]
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  23. 06-30-12 01:22 PM #23
    CrimsonQueen
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    1 Unit
    Seattle +9

    2012 WNBA record (8-7) [+0.8 Units]
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  24. 06-30-12 01:30 PM #24
    TheBeastMode
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    Where'd you get +9? is that the opening line?
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  25. 06-30-12 01:32 PM #25
    hougigo
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBeastMode View Post
    Where'd you get +9? is that the opening line?
    I think that's for tomorrow
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  26. 06-30-12 09:45 PM #26
    CrimsonQueen
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    Sorry BeastMode, and yes hougigo, that is tomorrows game, not today's. Thanks for clarifying that.
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  27. 07-01-12 06:49 PM #27
    CrimsonQueen
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    2012 WNBA record (9-7) [+1.8 Units]
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  28. 07-06-12 12:33 PM #28
    CrimsonQueen
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    1 Unit
    Phoenix + 6.5
    2012 WNBA record (9-7) [+1.8 Units]
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  29. 07-06-12 03:56 PM #29
    CrimsonQueen
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    There's an unofficial 0.5 Unit play on Tulsa +9 tonight. 0.5 Unit plays are 5-3 this year so far and went 19-12 last year. Still not playing them officially, but just putting this one play out there because it just BARELY didn't qualify as a 1 Unit play.

    Point is, if you're leaning towards Tulsa +9 tonight and needed that little bit of extra confidence, this could be it. If you don't like em, it's not a play for a reason, so just stick to the official plays.

    (on a personal note, I did bet them for half a unit)
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  30. 07-06-12 04:46 PM #30
    bleek88
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    I think CON runs away with this. -9 CON
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  31. 07-06-12 06:22 PM #31
    blackgolden
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    lets go
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  32. 07-07-12 12:55 PM #32
    CrimsonQueen
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    For tomorrow:

    1 Unit
    Washington +3

    (Also another unofficial small play on the under 152 in the Washington game...take at your own risk!)
    Last edited by CrimsonQueen; 07-07-12 at 02:14 PM. Reason: typo: Washington +3, not Washington +9!
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  33. 07-09-12 02:34 PM #33
    CrimsonQueen
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    Here's the time of year the model starts picking up, and for tomorrow it's got two 2 Unit plays.

    2 Units
    Washington +9
    Phoenix +10

    Good luck!

    2012 WNBA record (9-9) [-0.4 Units]
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  34. 07-09-12 03:25 PM #34
    EVPlus
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    Really nice thread and thanks for sharing your picks.

    Have you made any adjustments to your model from last year to this year?
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  35. 07-09-12 04:52 PM #35
    CrimsonQueen
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    Thanks EVPlus. The only major changes I made for this year were including one extra year of data in my data set. I made a number of minor improvements, such as the way the data is automatically collected and the way I treat injured players is similar but better (and automatic) this year, and is standard in all my models at this point.
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