1. 05-31-12 12:40 AM #1
    Vitooch
    Dayman
    Vitooch's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-26-11
    Posts: 3,470
    Betpoints: 159

    There Can Be Tons of Value in Live Betting

    As long as you pick your spots carefully...

    for example...there was a point in tonight's Miami/Boston game in which Boston was +8 1/2. It was in the third quarter when Miami was on a run with around a 6 point lead. While Boston was having the first string of flat possessions of the game, it was clear that no team had a commanding control of the game. It only took Boston a couple solid defensive and offensive possessions and they were right back in the game. That is the beauty of live in-game play. The pre-game spreads are usually very sharp, and are virtual coinflips. While you can certainly pick your shots with pre-game spreads, it seems as though you can find better opportunities with live spreads. Good cappers can gauge if a team seems to be pulling away, or are just on a temporary cold streak.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 05-31-12 12:41 AM #2
    Vinnie Paz
    Vinnie Paz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-27-12
    Posts: 12,177
    Betpoints: 3413

    Yep totally agree

    Good for middling your game/team totals too
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 05-31-12 12:47 AM #3
    hawley
    hawley's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-10-10
    Posts: 14,270
    Betpoints: 79

    I agree but your example is pretty moot since the original spread was +8.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 05-31-12 12:50 AM #4
    MoneyLineDawg
    Update your status
    MoneyLineDawg's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-01-09
    Posts: 13,253
    Betpoints: 13

    Live Betting is fukkin awesome but I've been playing with the same local for 3 years now and its just so much better in every other way

    The one thing I do miss is Live betting because it can be a gold mine if you pick your spots (I keep small amounts online so I still do some live betting ).....

    If you are on tilt or just a degenerate action junkie in general, Live Betting can be a death sentence on the other hand
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 05-31-12 12:56 AM #5
    Vitooch
    Dayman
    Vitooch's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-26-11
    Posts: 3,470
    Betpoints: 159

    Quote Originally Posted by hawley View Post
    I agree but your example is pretty moot since the original spread was +8.
    Yes, but this was the pre-game spread. I find it more difficult to make predictions pre-game than during the game. Who would have thought pre-game that Rondo would be shooting lights out like he did, and that Boston in general would put on one of their most productive halves of offense in these playoffs?

    I was much more confident that a veteran Boston club would be able to hang with the Heat considering the information that I did know (that I didn't know pre-game). That Miami's offense was a little more stagnant than expected, that Boston would come out much more efficient on defense, that Rondo would be playing the way he was playing.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 05-31-12 12:58 AM #6
    The Kraken
    The Kraken's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-11
    Posts: 28,917
    Betpoints: 532

    Um, no. Not even close. Live betting is a suckers bet. You will win a few middles and think you're good at it and the books are imcreasimg your limits everytime.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 05-31-12 01:00 AM #7
    the_situation
    the_situation's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-22-10
    Posts: 2,735
    Betpoints: 6309

    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    Um, no. Not even close. Live betting is a suckers bet. You will win a few middles and think you're good at it and the books are imcreasimg your limits everytime.
    maybe for you. people that know what they're doing can make money off it. EG. Heat down 15 in 1st half, grab them at +6 live.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 05-31-12 01:07 AM #8
    Vitooch
    Dayman
    Vitooch's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-26-11
    Posts: 3,470
    Betpoints: 159

    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    Um, no. Not even close. Live betting is a suckers bet. You will win a few middles and think you're good at it and the books are imcreasimg your limits everytime.
    I would say the pre-game spread is more of a suckers' bet than live betting. Books are incredibly sharp with pre-game spreads. Books are more likely to give you a live spread that's off because the nature of the NBA (how much the score differential fluctuates). Taking something like Boston +8 1/2 seems like less of a coin-flip than a pre-game spread where no one could predict something like Rondo shooting lights out.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 05-31-12 01:11 AM #9
    Sunde91
    Sunde91's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 8,325
    Betpoints: 255

    It only took Boston a couple solid defensive and offensive possessions and they were right back in the game.
    captain hindsight awaaayy

    That just killed anything you said. "It was a good play because I knew after the fact that Boston would be right back in it"

    Good cappers can gauge if a team seems to be pulling away, or are just on a temporary cold streak.
    Bos went from tied to down 7 in 2 mins in the 3rd of gm1. No different really than this game Bos up 1 to down 6 in 3 mins. One was temporary the other pulled away. You don't know. Only value in live is beating pregame line or scalping/middling
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 05-31-12 01:27 AM #10
    Vitooch
    Dayman
    Vitooch's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-26-11
    Posts: 3,470
    Betpoints: 159

    Quote Originally Posted by Sunde91 View Post
    captain hindsight awaaayy

    That just killed anything you said. "It was a good play because I knew after the fact that Boston would be right back in it"



    Bos went from tied to down 7 in 2 mins in the 3rd of gm1. No different really than this game Bos up 1 to down 6 in 3 mins. One was temporary the other pulled away. You don't know. Only value in live is beating pregame line or scalping/middling
    Boston was playing a way better brand of basketball in Game 2. I had a much harder time seeing a focused, more efficient Boston team keeping the game close, than in Game 1, when they seemed much more disoriented and less prepared. It's still very tough to gauge, but I think it is easier to catch an off in-game spread than pregame a much sharper pre game spread.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 05-31-12 03:23 AM #11
    Buster Posey
    Buster Posey's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-31-12
    Posts: 16
    Betpoints: 0

    What book is the best for using live betting these days? It seems most books like 5dimes only have a few live betting options on the Nationally Televised Games. Would be great to find a solid and reputable book that offered line options on every game on the board.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 05-31-12 03:26 AM #12
    TheCalculator
    TheCalculator's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-10-11
    Posts: 1,683
    Betpoints: 5633

    Bet365 has insane amount of options.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 05-31-12 03:27 AM #13
    Buster Posey
    Buster Posey's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-31-12
    Posts: 16
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by TheCalculator View Post
    Bet365 has insane amount of options.
    Cool, txs for the tip.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 05-31-12 05:12 AM #14
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Juice is always a concern with live betting
    Delays are a concern
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 05-31-12 02:04 PM #15
    laddder
    laddder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-12
    Posts: 191
    Betpoints: 933

    These past few games ive been live betting and have gotten sickk lines... I had the pleasure of getting SAS +ML gm1 against okc and i believe gm3 against clips, okc +10 gm 2 and was able to nab heat +ML yesterday. Just watch the games and try to grab the best lines, these games are back and forth and a 10-15pt lead can lead to inflated lines, you know the team that is down will claw back up.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 05-31-12 02:31 PM #16
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    It's addicting

    Biggest plus is watching game flow and being able to bet on it.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 05-31-12 02:39 PM #17
    Smogs
    Smogs's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-31-08
    Posts: 4,173
    Betpoints: 499

    Nice thread indeed, good advice
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 05-31-12 03:19 PM #18
    notoriouz
    notoriouz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-24-12
    Posts: 35
    Betpoints: 530

    I have found that live betting on the ML rather than the spread to be more profitable for me. For example, yesterday in the heat-celtics game, when the heat made there run in the 3rd and led by 6 or so, you could have grabbed Boston on the ML for +500 or so. And when the celtics were leading by 5 in the last 3 minutes, you could have grabbed Miami on the ML for +1000 or so. I unfortunately did not make any bets in this game so I missed out.

    Obviously you have to pick your spots, but the NBA has had many swings this season. You can guarantee yourself profit when you get + odds over +100, and if you can get boths teams at +200 or more you get a guaranteed unit of profit.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 05-31-12 03:37 PM #19
    riffraff24
    ...and out come the wolves
    riffraff24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-20-11
    Posts: 7,234
    Betpoints: 55

    I had Spurs +3 in game 1 live betting in Vegas.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 05-31-12 04:26 PM #20
    Vitooch
    Dayman
    Vitooch's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-26-11
    Posts: 3,470
    Betpoints: 159

    And, as people mentioned in the thread, there are lots of middling opportunities ...if you capped the live lines of last night game well enough you could have caught Miami at +2, and Boston +8 1/2
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 05-31-12 09:34 PM #21
    Vitooch
    Dayman
    Vitooch's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-26-11
    Posts: 3,470
    Betpoints: 159

    Testing my theory with Spurs +13 In-Game
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 05-31-12 09:57 PM #22
    Pauulzcappin
    Pauulzcappin's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-23-10
    Posts: 20,295
    Betpoints: 568

    Got them 10, 10.5... slim chance but oh well
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 05-31-12 10:03 PM #23
    Vitooch
    Dayman
    Vitooch's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-26-11
    Posts: 3,470
    Betpoints: 159

    Seems like Pop has thrown in the towel. Parker's been out for a while
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 06-01-12 12:54 AM #24
    The Kraken
    The Kraken's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-11
    Posts: 28,917
    Betpoints: 532

    I'm not disagreeing with you about scalps or middles or how fun it is. I enjoy live betting for fun just as much as the next guy, usually when my brothers in town. But the title of your thread is about value. Each bet is it's own and each line is the new line for the game so even though there are scalp and middle oppurtunities, you are likely compounding one -ev bet with another -ev bet. I promise you books aren't losing on live betting or they would not be offering it. They in fact clean up on live betting. Have fun with it but do not be disillusioned about it's value, they are almost always -ev bets.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 06-01-12 01:25 AM #25
    nux4thecup
    nux4thecup's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-01-12
    Posts: 47
    Betpoints: 72

    burnt too may times by live betting
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 12-05-12 11:34 AM #26
    Beetlejuice
    Beetlejuice's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-06-11
    Posts: 265
    Betpoints: 801

    I like middles. I lead in with the Fav pre-game, wait for an opportunity where there is a big point disparity, and take the other team. Works great, but haven't been doing it long enough to really see a chance to make big bank.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 12-05-12 11:39 AM #27
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    Ahh live betting... This is something i probably need to get disabled.

    That shit will get you in trouble
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 12-05-12 12:37 PM #28
    hougigo
    hougigo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-01-12
    Posts: 3,665
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Ahh live betting... This is something i probably need to get disabled.

    That shit will get you in trouble
    True... good thing Heritage only has it for football right now
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 12-05-12 01:17 PM #29
    uncynd
    America Jr
    uncynd's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-11
    Posts: 798
    Betpoints: 228

    Live betting value is only really lacking in action. Finding a good line and decent maximum bet is hard sometimes.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 12-05-12 01:34 PM #30
    Ralphie1412
    You Come at the King You Best Not Miss
    Ralphie1412's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-08
    Posts: 13,963
    Betpoints: 1209

    Its stealing. I wish 5dimes would let you bet a dime. Nickle limits. Its still pretty mindblowing though. I wait for every big televised game and bet live. I got Alabama +110 +120 +240
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 12-05-12 02:03 PM #31
    trytrytry
    All I do is trytrytry
    trytrytry's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-13-06
    Posts: 23,503
    Betpoints: 273617

    what books do you use and like the most for live wagering? list them all plus or minus
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 12-05-12 02:03 PM #32
    necro
    Update your status
    necro's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-07-09
    Posts: 1,633
    Betpoints: 108

    Live betting is the best, you can easily come from 50 to 2000 but than you can easily lost 2000 going all in on some -330 odds...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Players Talk | Next Thread »