1. #36
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by mh217 View Post
    C'mon guy everyone know Vegas doesn't lose..just cause you win a bit on the NBA so what?..99% of the people blow it back on other bets...silly post.
    From everything I heard outside a couple locations (Cantor and Hilton?) book managers in Vegas are scared shitless to take more then a dime (in some cases less) if they think you have half a clue...

  2. #37
    durito
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    pinnacle must get buried taking 50k on series bets

  3. #38
    Pride
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    celtics were free money tonight.

  4. #39
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by brahmabull117 View Post
    Anybody who bets a 20-1 favorite is a retard and has no business gambling anyways
    fail

  5. #40
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pride View Post
    celtics were free money tonight.

    there is zero chance, ZERO of Boston winning this series

  6. #41
    thetrinity
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    im gona take a wild guess that vegas has never lost money for an entire playoffs.

  7. #42
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    im gona take a wild guess that vegas has never lost money for an entire playoffs.

    You're probably right



    People can't help themselves but bet on spreads and totals in basketball, which is ALWAYS a losing proposition as they're nothing but pure coinflips


    If you understand basketball and matchups and have the discipline to only play series lines, there's no excuse for not making money every year. This year especially has been incredibly predictable

  8. #43
    k13
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    #1-3 seeds have been champions every year except ONE.


  9. #44
    Sunde91
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    Mavs beat by 8th seed 2007
    Bulls beat by 8th seed
    Spurs beat by 8th seed
    Mavs sweep Lakers
    Mavs beat Heat
    Suns sweep Spurs 2010 after Spurs knock off 2nd seed Mavs
    Boston beats heavily favored Cavs in 2010


    on and on and on just shut up pickloserallday

  10. #45
    raydog
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    cant argue with stupid, boyz... very typical

  11. #46
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sunde91 View Post
    Bulls beat by 8th seed
    Spurs beat by 8th seed
    Mavs sweep Lakers
    Mavs beat Heat
    Suns sweep Spurs 2010 after Spurs knock off 2nd seed Mavs
    Boston beats heavily favored Cavs in 2010
    Boston beats favored Magic in 2010 including first 2 on road

    on and on and on just shut up pickloserallday

    And I can show you a 100 examples in the last 10 years of obvious choices winning


    I am not telling people to just bet every single favorite. There are favorites and there are obvious choices. You just gotta understand basketball and what the more likely team to win is


    Perfect example - neither team in the LAC/Memphis series was an obvious choice cause it's an even matchup - there's no difference in experience. Boston was an obvious choice over Philly cause of their playoff experience


    Does that make sense?

  12. #47
    rm18
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    Suns were favored over Spurs in 2010 though Sunde

  13. #48
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by rm18 View Post
    Suns were favored over Spurs in 2010 though Sunde


    Guys I am NOT saying to bet every single favorite, no way



    You just gotta know the matchups, experience, etc... I think picking NBA playoff winners is very easy when you do that. That's all I'm saying


    Don't bet on a favorite in questionable matchups - I wanted no part of LAC/Memphis because there's no clear advantage there in either side

  14. #49
    raydog
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    look, just sit back on your 100ft yacht, you paid for with gambling winnings, and watch the game...with every post, you make yourself look even more stupid..if its possible

  15. #50
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    #1-3 seeds have been champions every year except ONE.


    exactly

  16. #51
    Kindred
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    Last year thunder were favored over dallas weren't they? And I know the heat were a HUGE favorite over dallas in the finals..and LOST

    2006 Dallas won first 2 games vs. heat looked like a lock to win it all..oh and those two games if I remember correctly where in Miami. The heat went on the road and beat Dallas in Dallas and won 4 straight to take the title.

    Last year Memphis crapped all over the spurs in the first round

    totally predictable

    obviously a ton more examples

    And how are 4-1 favorites a LOCK and a 20-1 favorite like the Bulls not

    Bet the playoffs a few years and you'll see it's not as easy as you think. Until then don't bet the rent

  17. #52
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kindred View Post
    Last year thunder were favored over dallas weren't they?
    I thought Dallas was a very easy choice last year because of the HUGE difference in playoff experience


    2006 Dallas won first 2 games vs. heat looked like a lock to win it all..oh and those two games if I remember correctly where in Miami. The heat went on the road and beat Dallas in Dallas and won 4 straight to take the title.
    you skipped 4 years of the better/more experienced team winning the finals there brah between 2007-2010 and pretty much the same thing with every year between when Jordan came back from his retirement for the first time to Detroit beating LAL (another true rare upset)


    Last year Memphis crapped all over the spurs in the first round

    Manu was injured. San Antonio was a shell of what they are now




    And how are 4-1 favorites a LOCK and a 20-1 favorite like the Bulls not

    No betting a 20-1 favorite is retarded no matter what. The point is that there can possibly be value in a 4-1 favorite, betting a 20-1 favorite is idiotic no matter what

  18. #53
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kindred View Post
    Last year thunder were favored over dallas weren't they? And I know the heat were a HUGE favorite over dallas in the finals..and LOST

    2006 Dallas won first 2 games vs. heat looked like a lock to win it all..oh and those two games if I remember correctly where in Miami. The heat went on the road and beat Dallas in Dallas and won 4 straight to take the title.

    Last year Memphis crapped all over the spurs in the first round

    totally predictable

    obviously a ton more examples

    And how are 4-1 favorites a LOCK and a 20-1 favorite like the Bulls not

    Bet the playoffs a few years and you'll see it's not as easy as you think. Until then don't bet the rent
    Pretty sure what he is arguing (since every example that others cite doesn't qualify) is that when the favorites win they are all obvious but when the favorites lose they aren't...

    For the rest of us the only thing that is obvious is the reason why we are getting this thread in the middle of the playoffs rather then a list with the obvious plays before it started...

  19. #54
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by LVHerbie View Post
    Pretty sure what he is arguing (since every example that others cite doesn't qualify) is that when the favorites win they are all obvious but when the favorites lose they aren't...

    My point is when Manu gets injured for San Antonio or when D Rose gets injured for the bulls, those plays are no longer easy choices and you should hedge out


    Also I never said true upsets NEVER happen, they're just rare


    The experts all predicted the NBA finals properly in something like 16 out of the last 19 seasons. You'll never see that in any other sport


    For the rest of us the the thing that is obvious is the reason why we are getting this thread in the middle of the playoffs rather then a list with the obvious plays before it started...

    hey I told everybody to play Lakers game 7, Boston series, boston game 7, SA series, Miami Series. My record is nearly impeccable in the NBA playoffs this year

  20. #55
    k13
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    [QUOTE=Kindred;14888998 And I know the heat were a HUGE favorite over dallas in the finals..and LOST

    [/QUOTE]

    HUGE as in +1000 or HUGE as in +150

  21. #56
    brahmabull117
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    I don't know how anybody can say the Heat were an easy choice over the Mavs last year in the finals. The mavs had more playoff experience and Lebron's history of choking in huge situations made that a 50-50 proposition either way



    The point is that the experts properly predict the Conference finals and the NBA finals like 80 or 90% of the time

  22. #57
    raydog
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    pinnacle must get buried taking 50k on series bets
    really all that needs to be said here...he still wont understand though

  23. #58
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by raydog View Post
    really all that needs to be said here...he still wont understand though

    you don't see my point though that the "Experts" properly predicted the conference finals and championship over the last 20 years at an astonishingly high rate?

  24. #59
    Kindred
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    HUGE as in +1000 or HUGE as in +150

    I've had a few beers pal not like I'm a walking almanac of last years odds. It was more than +150, +175 huge lol. I think I was remembering the price after game 1..and I remember it cause I took the +175 before game one and wished I had waited.

    The NBA has less parity than the other major sports but vegas is well aware of this. I'd feel safe betting that anything you know vegas knows

  25. #60
    Kindred
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    Quote Originally Posted by LVHerbie View Post
    Pretty sure what he is arguing (since every example that others cite doesn't qualify) is that when the favorites win they are all obvious but when the favorites lose they aren't...

    For the rest of us the only thing that is obvious is the reason why we are getting this thread in the middle of the playoffs rather then a list with the obvious plays before it started...

    Yeah I realize no way to get through..just buzzed and wanted to keep him from going bust. Just read the thread title you know it's going to end bad

  26. #61
    raydog
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    Quote Originally Posted by brahmabull117 View Post
    you don't see my point though that the "Experts" properly predicted the conference finals and championship over the last 20 years at an astonishingly high rate?
    okay, well after you realized you were being fukking stupid with the series bets idea, you decided to change your "point" to this... trying to help you and you dont seem to realize it kid...damn why do we bother?

  27. #62
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by raydog View Post
    okay, well after you realized you were being fukking stupid with the series bets idea, you decided to change your "point" to this... trying to help you and you dont seem to realize it kid...damn why do we bother?

    I'm 2-0 betting on NBA series prices so far - both the Lakers against Denver and the Celtics over 76ers. I'll be 4-0 when Miami and SA both win their series


    all 4 of those series are easy choices when you consider talent, experience and matchups


    I'm not trying to brag at all by the way when I say that, I think anybody who watches basketball should be 4-0 on those series
    Last edited by brahmabull117; 05-28-12 at 10:04 PM.

  28. #63
    Sunde91
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    Quote Originally Posted by brahmabull117 View Post


    And I can show you a 100 examples in the last 10 years of obvious choices winning
    you could not, but it wouldn't matter and you would still be down buried by the heavy chalk losers even picking 80%

    Million $ is how you discern the "obvious choices" from the not so obvious

    Heat -180 vs. Mavs last year must have been the best value in history right? Unstoppable Heat too easy. Then you would have bet them -400 after winning game 1
    Spurs -400 vs. Grizz impossible Spurs get beat by an 8th seed
    LA -350 over Mavs last year very obvious yes? A very reasonable price for the 2x champs
    Cavs -475 over Bos 2010 for the best reg season team that year obvious yes?
    Cavs -800 over Magic 2009 also obvious for a #1 Cavs team that swept the first 2 rounds

    on and on

    Go on and call all of these not obvious, Captain Hindsight, while you brag about being 2-0 on -300 prices
    Last edited by Sunde91; 05-28-12 at 10:19 PM. Reason: hindsight

  29. #64
    RAPISTburger84
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    #1-3 seeds have been champions every year except ONE.

    When's Steve Young gonna come out the closet?

  30. #65
    lsuheat911
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    "free money" lol bet you anything the OP will be flat ass broke in a few years collecting welfare checks

  31. #66
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sunde91 View Post

    Heat -180 vs. Mavs last year must have been the best value in history right? Unstoppable Heat too easy. Then you would have bet them -400 after winning game 1
    Spurs -400 vs. Grizz impossible Spurs get beat by an 8th seed
    LA -350 over Mavs last year very obvious yes? A very reasonable price for the 2x champs
    Cavs -475 over Bos 2010 for the best reg season team that year obvious yes?
    Cavs -800 over Magic 2009 also obvious for a #1 Cavs team that swept the first 2 rounds

    on and on

    Go on and call all of these not obvious, Captain Hindsight, while you brag about being 2-0 on -300 prices


    1)Dallas over LA was a rare pure upset, I'll give you credit there

    2)Boston over Cavs shouldn't have been a surprise to anybody. 3 Stars to 1 star. Boston was the more experienced and better team that year. People who understand basketball know that regular season means nothing

    3)Spurs were only about - 200 IIRC and Manu was injured. A semi upset there

    4)Orlando over Cleveland. How was anybody surprised by this seeing Cleveland's constant choking in the playoffs?



    What about the NBA experts properly predicting like 16 of the last 19 NBA finals? and a huge % of the conference finals?

    What about the experts properly predicting the conf finals the last 2 seasons? (they were right last year, it's pretty much a guarantee that Miami/SA will win)

  32. #67
    Sunde91
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    Cavs had the best record and swept the first 2 rounds going 7-0-1 ATS, fukko. Cavs weren't known for choking until THAT YEAR


  33. #68
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sunde91 View Post
    Cavs had the best record and swept the first 2 rounds going 7-0-1 ATS

    regular season doesn't mean anything, their first 2 rounds faced zero competition


    please explain to me how Lebron, with no rings, and a bunch of role players is an obvious choice over 3 superstars and real championship experience in Boston?

  34. #69
    BettingWizard
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    Public got super buried with the Magic vs Cavs series


    No question about it.

  35. #70
    Sunde91
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    trolling or stupid to not know I'm not talking about 2009

    In 2010, at that point, Celtics weren't thought of highly by anyone. It was all about the Cavs and Lakers. -475 series price reflects it

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