1. 05-24-12 11:20 AM #1
    TheMoneyShot
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    Miami VS Indiana Game 6

    There are many aspects of this game that are very interesting to me.

    1. The line opened up at Miami -3.5

    2 player suspensions for Miami. The line shifts a half a point. And some books are reporting the same line today at Noon. Miami -3.5

    It makes no sense to me. Miami has struggled in Indiana with Wade an James. Totally different playing environment. Miami -3.5 on the road is like -9.5 at home... but the spread for game 5 was Miami -6.5 and -7. To me that's very interesting. It sort of tells me Miami covers this game. With everyone being on Indiana +3 and ML because of Miami's suspensions.

    2. The other side to this game... what does David Stern want? If this series goes to a game 7... it would be televised nationally on ABC Sports... from my understanding on Saturday. (Correct me if I'm wrong.) Does the NBA want 2 Game 7's on Saturday for more revenue? Will it help the gambling/entertainment world? Or is Philly Boston... all you need?

    To me... the spread is a huge indication to take Miami tonight. But... I'm just going on vibe... intuition... trying to feel out the best outcome for this game... and what does the NBA/Stern want?

    Miami -3 Locked & Loaded
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  2. 05-24-12 12:38 PM #2
    TheMoneyShot
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    Granger will play with a sprain. *DID NOT KNOW THIS*
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  3. 05-24-12 12:40 PM #3
    rm18
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    chris bosh got hurt and the line moved a half point, outside of Lebron few players in the NBA impact the line much
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  4. 05-24-12 12:42 PM #4
    rm18
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    Pittman also suspended could be big because they might have to go Juwan Howard now
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  5. 05-24-12 12:47 PM #5
    Dabeergod
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    Miami ML for me
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  6. 05-24-12 12:48 PM #6
    Chi_archie
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    Heat easy
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  7. 05-24-12 12:52 PM #7
    thetrinity
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    money i think everyones on miami here after a blowout. haslem suspension hurts miami more then the average bettor thinks, pittman, who cares.
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  8. 05-24-12 12:55 PM #8
    rm18
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    money i think everyones on miami here after a blowout. haslem suspension hurts miami more then the average bettor thinks, pittman, who cares.
    he is better than Eddy Curry or Juwan if Bosh or Haslem healthy would not matter.
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  9. 05-24-12 12:59 PM #9
    thetrinity
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    ah maybe your right rm, haslem obviously more the loss though. could hurt the heat even more. lets be honest unless its wade or lebron out joe blow could care less.
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  10. 05-24-12 01:06 PM #10
    TheMoneyShot
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    Well... both injuries are significant. Haslem to me is more important. Let's face it... now Miami is kind of forced to play 2 people that technically wouldn't see significant playing time??? I was edging towards Indiana. But the line was out before the suspensions were announced... and the line didn't do much... Unless Vegas already knew this info before the public knew? And now we have a Granger sprain which I didn't think it was that bad?? Unless this new info... wanting people to take Miami? A lot of info to digest fellas. That's why they call it gambling.
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  11. 05-24-12 01:09 PM #11
    thetrinity
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    the fact that indiana got ran out of the gym completely last game was a big factor.
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  12. 05-24-12 01:10 PM #12
    Smogs
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    Leaning the under in a big big way
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  13. 05-24-12 01:23 PM #13
    thetrinity
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smogs View Post
    Leaning the under in a big big way
    any reasoning on this?
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  14. 05-24-12 01:48 PM #14
    Reedeman
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    I think people are overestimating the suspensions.
    Haslem has played 84.33 mins, 30 pts, 22 rebounds, and 6 turnovers over the entire 5 game series.
    Pittman has played 6.41 mins and has contributed nothing.
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  15. 05-24-12 01:57 PM #15
    zoo youk
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    Pittman is an absolute non factor and Heat are used to playing without Haslem. Joel Anthony has been HUGE on the defensive end. the suspensions have no effect on this game.
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  16. 05-24-12 02:04 PM #16
    TheMoneyShot
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    If the line was Miami -2 it would either be no play... or Indiana ML. But... Miami -3??? Wow. I know they got their ass kicked in Miami... but that's a huge spread change at 2 different arenas.
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  17. 05-24-12 02:06 PM #17
    zoo youk
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    Battier is playing way better than Haslem anyway right now.
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  18. 05-24-12 02:08 PM #18
    TheMoneyShot
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    Ahhhhhhhhhhh sh#@!!!!! Line movement at 5dimes. Miami -2

    Not this sh#$ again!!! GD the public!!!!!!

    Why all this movement every single game???? It's unreal.
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  19. 05-24-12 02:33 PM #19
    CHAZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    Ahhhhhhhhhhh sh#@!!!!! Line movement at 5dimes. Miami -2

    Not this sh#$ again!!! GD the public!!!!!!

    Why all this movement every single game???? It's unreal.
    Yea its driving me crazy. I was hoping to get the 3.5 on Indy but time I checked it had shot down. I guess I'll just wait until closer to game time and hope Mia $ comes in
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  20. 05-24-12 03:53 PM #20
    TheMoneyShot
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    Has anyone ever seen such a huge adjusted series price at Miami -1200 with a 3-2 edge in a series before?? Seems like a high price. If Indiana wins tonight... and steals game 7... you're winning jackpot. Which leads me to believe... Miami would win game 7 SU no matter what. Wish I knew the outcome to game 6 though?? Let me shake my magic 8 ball...
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  21. 05-24-12 03:58 PM #21
    BXbomber11
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    definitely liking the heat here
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  22. 05-24-12 04:27 PM #22
    polishkielbasa10
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    With Haslem Heat are +49 w/o they are -1
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  23. 05-24-12 04:30 PM #23
    frogsrangers
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    The best play here is no play. Too many variables.
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  24. 05-24-12 04:42 PM #24
    GoBlue77
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    Quote Originally Posted by polishkielbasa10 View Post
    With Haslem Heat are +49 w/o they are -1
    come on kids....do your research geezus. haslem doesnt mean sh1t...

    In the 85 minutes Udonis Haslem has been on the court in this series, the Heat have been outscored by a point. In the 155 Haslem has been off the court, the Heat have actually faired much better, outscoring the Pacers by 28 points.
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  25. 05-24-12 04:43 PM #25
    Dclan86
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    Using the David Stern theory to decide a bet is absolutely stupid. David Stern may want the game to go to a game 7, that part is probably accurate, however if it was ever uncovered that Stern altered the outcomes of games, he would never have anything to do with basketball in America for the rest of his old life. The dude gets payed tons of money as it is, why would he risk everything, including the integrity of basketball, just to make a little bit more money. And you can play if both ways, if Stern helped the Pacers win, the Heat would have to play more games, and be less likely to take out the Celtics/76ers in the Conf Finals. And even if Stern was so brilliant that he did fix every game and we, as the spectators, somehow had absolutely no idea, don't you think some of the players would take exception to that. I mean do you really think Dwayne Wade and/or Lebron would let the pacers win because David Stern told them too? Hell No, they are two of the most competitive people in the world. David Stern's wants and needs should not be taken into account when betting, it is a non factor, and stupid if it sways your bet.
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  26. 05-24-12 04:45 PM #26
    tullamore21
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    it will be West against Battier again, like Game 2...

    West over 13.5 pts
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  27. 05-24-12 04:46 PM #27
    Dclan86
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    Oh and by the way, the play here tonight is likely going to be on the Heat winning. James and Wade have been nasty recently, and Granger and West ( arguably the pacers two best) are both admittedly injured. Danny Granger told the press he has a soft ball sized ankle, and is considering taking a cortisone shot, and has been taking Painkillers all day. He will be slow tonight and West will likely not want to be to physical due to his knee injury. Heat take it tonight unfortunately, Pacers gave it away in game 4 at home and in that god awful game 5 they played in Miami. I expect the heat to come out by at least 5. Would be thrilled if the Pacers won though.
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  28. 05-24-12 04:50 PM #28
    Jayvegas420
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    The Stern comment is not all that absurd. I have often wondered this. I don't think is overtly done, like he contacts the refs & coaches before the game. It is just assumed. And it is not only television revenues that are affected. Local economies are affected by sweeps & 7 game series'.
    Millions a day.
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  29. 05-24-12 05:12 PM #29
    mp5070
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    Money,

    Lets get Miami Heat -3...
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  30. 05-24-12 05:23 PM #30
    Reedeman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    The Stern comment is not all that absurd. I have often wondered this. I don't think is overtly done, like he contacts the refs & coaches before the game. It is just assumed. And it is not only television revenues that are affected. Local economies are affected by sweeps & 7 game series'.
    Millions a day.
    The NBA is a business and has a business model. Obviously the NBA and their partners/sponsors will do much better financially if miami; with all of their stars and sponsors, advance to the finals. Whoever wins the championship is of no concern, as a minimum of 4 games will be played, probably more, and obviously the team with the most starpower and hype will draw the highest ratings, sell the most merchandise, create word of mouth buzz...

    As last years finals showed, the NBA wins no matter what the outcome if a star-powered team advances to the finals. The LOSS of the heat may have even generated more buzz and controversy, which carried over into this season; most of it surrounding LBJ..

    I'm not saying the league is outright rigged, but as someone who gambles on NBA basketball, you have to respect the fact that the league does better if certain markets advance to certain stages. More overall games mean more $$$ for the league. A lot more $$$..
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  31. 05-24-12 05:44 PM #31
    BeatTheJerk
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    You need to stop trying to think and/or sound like a professional gambler, and your Mr. Stern theory is wack. David Jew Stern makes millions of dollars whatever the bleep happens tonight.(He's a real conservative older Jew he's made his buck already)This shit doesn't even cross his mind. He wants to see an entertaining clean game, that's it. For the Heat to win James/Wade need to have a combined total of 60+, and decent contributions from the rest of those so called role players, plus hold Indiana to under 90 points. For the Pacers to win they have to play their usual game, keep James/Wade under 60 points and score over 90 points to force game 7 and that's what my money is on. Pacers +145 Got that number last night. GL with your play .....
    Last edited by BeatTheJerk; 05-24-12 at 05:51 PM.
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  32. 05-24-12 05:54 PM #32
    Drew0585
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    RLM favors Indiana
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  33. 05-24-12 05:54 PM #33
    thetrinity
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    sick of hearing about stern 2, he clearly had a game fixed once and it was the greatest pr disaster of all time. his league is the most popular league internationally besides the barclays premier league and ratings are still great even after a work stoppage. last thing he wants is people to tune out.
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  34. 05-24-12 05:55 PM #34
    PedroG
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    James World , party Time , Excellent ....
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  35. 05-24-12 06:00 PM #35
    Dclan86
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    sick of hearing about stern 2, he clearly had a game fixed once and it was the greatest pr disaster of all time. his league is the most popular league internationally besides the barclays premier league and ratings are still great even after a work stoppage. last thing he wants is people to tune out.
    Yes I agree. If there ever was a fixed game, it was that Kings game, I think it was the kings vs lakers in 2002? Yea it was very obvious the refs were pulling for the Lakers because in order to make a team win, that isn't winning by natural skill, you have to really go out of the way to make them win. I mean they called the 40 fouls in the last two quarters I believe. The press got a hold of that info and everyone in the world knew about it in about 1 days time. The NBA is just starting to gain a following again and Stern isn't going to blow that on trying to play puppet master. Stern has absolutely no say in who wins tonight, the better team wins, bottom line.
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