I'm confused. This is not in line with the previous lines in the series, especially when they're missing another big man who plays regular minutes. With no Bosh or Haslem, they're short in the front court. You're looking at Anthony and Turiaf, with I guess Juwan Howard off the bench.
Historically (the past few years) teams in Miami's spot (up 3-2 and the fav in game 6) do very well in this situation. The line may be a bit inflated and it is unlikely to ever really get value when betting the heat, but I think the Heat are the right side tonight.
Because Miami just showed how they can play once they smell blood. There was much doubt as to whether they were up for the challenge, but since that last game I think they've switched on and books are accounting for that.
Surely if the Heat were at a PK they would get pounded, and then people would say "Indi is the play because the line is fishy".
If you think Heat should be a PK then clearly you should take Indi +3.
I think the Heat played in the last game the way everyone thought they would at the start of the series. If you were to predict what the line would be in game 6 at Indi I think this one is just about right. The books will get action on both sides of this line.
Don't read anything into the line or the movement. Both are heavily impacted by suspensions and injuries. Danny Granger has a sprained ankle. David West has a sprained knee. If the Pacers were 100% healthy they would not be 3 point underdogs.