[celtics3388]

They opened Philly yesterday at -5 and almost all their lines have moved at least 2 points. It takes balls to be the first book to post but I mean they gotta come up with some sharper lines... opening an account there ASAP

[BernardMadoff]

I was gonna make a thread about this the other day, when you look at their open to close sometimes you'll see lines that moved 5 points, problem is the opener listed is never an opener anywhere and wasnt even the opener on their site. Which begged the question was the the opener given to the sharps before it was put out to the public, I doubt that also. Not sure where they get those lines, dont think its real.

[BernardMadoff]

Ok now Im confused, if you go to VegasInsider you see even more discrepancies about the openers at Sportsbook.com

[BernardMadoff]

Heritage says they opened Philly at 5, Im gonna start looking as early as I can now. OMG. If I see that things like this is true...OMG.

[Pivotpoint]

They opened Philly at -5 1/2. They have very small windows with these soft numbers. If I recall, the number jumped from -5 1/2 to - 8 within a 20 minute or so time span after opening.

The way things are going as the season winds down, it can be very dangerous to commit early on a team or number. Way to many late scratches on players that can really suck when you are on the wrong side. Not to mention teams jockeying for playoff seedings dependent on other teams win/loss the prior day can have a huge impact on game effort.

More importantly, they have a max wager on these opening numbers of $250. This is chump change compared to their total game handle and gives them an early look of where the smart money is going.

I'll look forward to early lines come playoffs when you know every team will be focused and give 100%. This should result in sharper numbers and less movement.

I do most of my beting through Heritage and like the fact that they keep improving what they offer in addition to reduced juice and cash back rebates. I'd like to see them improve live betting availability, but all and all they are a solid book that treats good customers fair.

[LT Profits]

Heritage has homemade NBA lines for the NEXT day up usually by 1:00 ET. You usually have less than an hour to take full advantage though. For example, 76ers opened -5 at 1:00 yesterday, then moved to -8 at 1:42.

[LT Profits]

4/22/2012 1:42:39 PM
Philadelphia 76ers - @ New Jersey Nets -
-8.0-108 8.0-108 100% 0%
4/22/2012 1:42:11 PM
Philadelphia 76ers - @ New Jersey Nets -
-6.0-108 6.0-108 100% 0%
4/22/2012 1:15:06 PM
Philadelphia 76ers - @ New Jersey Nets -
-5.5-108 5.5-108 100% 0%
4/22/2012 1:07:43 PM
Philadelphia 76ers - @ New Jersey Nets -
-5.0-108 5.0-108 100% 0%

[bleek88]

That spells doom

[brainfreeze0]

They've been doing this. I've been getting lines the day before for a little while now, ever since Nets played Lakers. Their lines move quite a bit overnight and helps me get spreads that cover quite easily to the ones I see the next day. I think they use the early public to help set their next day lines.

[LT Profits]

That spells doom

Not really, early limits are only $250. They'll make up for small hits like that just from the new customers they will gain by people reading this thread.

[celtics3388]

They opened Philly at -5 1/2. They have very small windows with these soft numbers. If I recall, the number jumped from -5 1/2 to - 8 within a 20 minute or so time span after opening.

The way things are going as the season winds down, it can be very dangerous to commit early on a team or number. Way to many late scratches on players that can really suck when you are on the wrong side. Not to mention teams jockeying for playoff seedings dependent on other teams win/loss the prior day can have a huge impact on game effort.

More importantly, they have a max wager on these opening numbers of $250. This is chump change compared to their total game handle and gives them an early look of where the smart money is going.

I'll look forward to early lines come playoffs when you know every team will be focused and give 100%. This should result in sharper numbers and less movement.

I do most of my beting through Heritage and like the fact that they keep improving what they offer in addition to reduced juice and cash back rebates. I'd like to see them improve live betting availability, but all and all they are a solid book that treats good customers fair.

Thanks for the heads up Pivot. Seems like a pretty good way to gain more customers since theres only a max of $250 loss per bet. Still that was asinine to open Philly at -5 unless they were predicting injuries. Maybe there are intentionally making them soft...

[BernardMadoff]

Yea I hate their $250 max bets on things, its like that with live in play too.

[HoulihansTX]

yep keep pounding them for a whooping 200 per play.

[Justin7]

Openers don't matter, as long as your opening limits are small and you get good volume. They'll make up the minuscule losses just from the free advertising.

[kirkdiese]

Max bet there blows.

[CarpeDime]

Openers don't matter, as long as your opening limits are small and you get good volume. They'll make up the minuscule losses just from the free advertising.

yeah I'm sure overall they don't get hurt that bad on lines that wind up moving a lot

and as far as the limits, well that's the tradeoff for getting to hit super-early openers like that, and again, you can hit them again when they move, so if you see a line you think is way off you can usually get $500 or $750 down on great numbers, or even 1K

yeah if your standard unit is 4 figs then maybe you won't be super-excited by their openers but if it's less than that then it's great

[seaborneq]

I'll look into this.

[ArunSh]

It's easy to say this after the fact (knowing where the line ended up moving to), but could anyone honestly say for sure that they knew this was going to happen? Again, given the way many teams are resting star players due to it being the end of the regular season, how can anyone really be completely sure what way a line is going to move compared to the opener?

Maybe I'm wrong (I've never tried this), but I would guess that if you try to hit these early lines, especially at this point in the season, that you will wind up with plenty of "bad" bets also. Unless you have long term evidence that when you do this that you wind up getting a good bet at least say 55-60% of the time then it seems to be a rather risky strategy.

[brainfreeze0]

It's easy to say this after the fact (knowing where the line ended up moving to), but could anyone honestly say for sure that they knew this was going to happen? Again, given the way many teams are resting star players due to it being the end of the regular season, how can anyone really be completely sure what way a line is going to move compared to the opener?

Maybe I'm wrong (I've never tried this), but I would guess that if you try to hit these early lines, especially at this point in the season, that you will wind up with plenty of "bad" bets also. Unless you have long term evidence that when you do this that you wind up getting a good bet at least say 55-60% of the time then it seems to be a rather risky strategy.

Yes it was a lot better earlier on. It really isnt as effective now with playoff teams resting who knows and non playoff teams throwing games for better draft picks.

[BernardMadoff]

It's easy to say this after the fact (knowing where the line ended up moving to), but could anyone honestly say for sure that they knew this was going to happen? Again, given the way many teams are resting star players due to it being the end of the regular season, how can anyone really be completely sure what way a line is going to move compared to the opener?

Maybe I'm wrong (I've never tried this), but I would guess that if you try to hit these early lines, especially at this point in the season, that you will wind up with plenty of "bad" bets also. Unless you have long term evidence that when you do this that you wind up getting a good bet at least say 55-60% of the time then it seems to be a rather risky strategy.

This would be the easiest time to know which way their gonna move, everybody knows each team's playoff aspirations. In the case of Philly its easy to know it'd rise from 5. The teams that are playing for something the line is gonna move in their favor against a team that isn't, especially being just two possessions.

[celtics3388]

Looks like it was a short-time thing. Their lines for Wednesday aren't even out yet according to the SBR odds.

[LT Profits]

Looks like it was a short-time thing. Their lines for Wednesday aren't even out yet according to the SBR odds.

That's only because playoff implications of tomorrow's games depend on tonight's results. I'm sure advance lines will be back for playoffs.

[LT Profits]

There may be one of two advance lines on Wednesday for Thursday too.

[M.W.]

A lot of their early lines are actually really sharp.

[LT Profits]

Sides and Totals for all NBA Playoff games Saturday and Sunday are up now. Go find the soft spots.

[LT Profits]

Hopefully you all got Bulls Under 181, Heat Under 191.5, Thunder Under 197, Hawks Under 183.5, Grizzlies -2 and Grizzlies Under 187.