1. #1
    brainfreeze0
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    Strange things happening with Dallas Mav's line

    So last night it was at 6 1/2 (-108) on my book. Publics been pounding it all night at 90% on dallas. A little while ago it was down a 1/2 point to -6 (-108). An hour later back up to -6 1/2 (-103) and Portland (-113). I've seen this scenario go both ways with the same exact public pounding and seen the results go both ways where the fav and the dog have won. Obv the book is making the Mavs look quite favorable considering the line and the Mavs more ability.

    I'm still taking Dallas here as they have other teams fighting for their spot in the West and they are fighting to secure higher position and cushion. Portland only looking at a glimmer of hope that likely will not come. If either Denver (29-25) or Houston (29-25) or both lose tomorrow and Pheonix (28-26) wins then Pheonix will be tied for a playoff spot. Dallas (31-24) is just ahead of Denver and Houston by only 2-1. Portland is behind all of them at 26-29, the glimmer of hope I spoke of. I see Dallas fighting to maintain/ excel to stay in front of all of them, so I'm not going to overthink why the fck these sportsbooks are trying to mindfck me, I'm just gonna lock a bet in with Dallas playing at home.

    They're either A) Trying to make Mavs line look more susceptible to pull in more bets on Dallas (which makes no sense since 90% of the public is on them and Portland is by no means a lock even if some drastic imminent loss could be in the wind) or B) They're trying to get people to outthink themselves and lay bets with Portland because "Vegas must know something" and they're really just trying to even out the both sides any way possible without having to give away to much (i.e. 1/2 point or a little extra juice).

    This line could go either way, why drop 1/2 points or up the juice for what could still be a potential coinflip to get more people over to Dallas side. Seems more like the books trying to make us outsmart ourselves.

    If ESPN comes tomorrow saying Dirk broke his pinky or some bs I'll just be out the bet. That's my 2 cents. Wow that was long. Thoughts?
    Last edited by brainfreeze0; 04-06-12 at 06:24 AM.

  2. #2
    cleaveland
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    Mavs moneyline is what I like. Everyone knows there's a huge difference between winning and covering the spread.

  3. #3
    brainfreeze0
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    The ML on that would be ridiculous. You'd be better off passing or taking Blazer PL if you dont think they will cover the spread

  4. #4
    SparJMU
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    I don't actually think Portland wants to make the playoffs. They shipped off their veterans and are looking to the future. Obviously the players will still play hard, but Portland management has no desire in fighting for an 8 seed and getting bumped in the first round. They are dabbling with a lot of different lineups, playing up to 11 guys a night. I would imagine that as the season winds down, you will see decreased minutes for Aldridge, Batum, and Matthews. Now Vegas knows this as well so the spreads are going to be high, but when you have a chance like tonight to tease Dallas down close to the ML, you have to take it.

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