[billyunl]

Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

Plays:

Boston Celtics +1

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

The Spurs are an extreme outlier in the sports betting market. They are covering 64% of their spreads right now, and absolutely murdering the odds makers. The next highest cover rate is Chicago at 58.2%. I’ll remind you that only 8 teams out of 240 have covered 60% or more of their games in a given season the past 8 years (8/240=3.33%). The 2007-2008 Celtics are the only “high profile” team to do it over that span of time. San Antonio is a “high profile” team that Vegas does not want covering at this kind of rate. Odds makers will continue to try to spoil that Spurs covering rate.

Some say that your most important players are your PG and SF, well Boston has Rondo and Pierce at PG and SF with Rolands of +6.1 and +7.2 respectively. The Spurs have PG locked-down with Tony Parker (+6.5), but they play Kawhi Leonard at SF, whose Roland is barely positive. They have the cancerous Jackson to give Kawhi a rest, who hasn’t had a positive Roland rating since 09-10 (in substantial playing time with a given team.) Advantage Celtics.

Referee assignments:

• Bill Spooner: 18-19 home team ATS record
• Eli Roe: 15-21-1 home team ATS record
• Leon Wood: 19-23 home team ATS record

Match-ups
Player	Roland	Player	Roland	Pos.
Paul Pierce	+7.2	Kawhi Leonard	+0.4	SF
Brandon Bass	+0.4	Tim Duncan	+6.2	PF
Kevin Garnett	+10.4	Dejuan Blair	-5.2	C
Ray Allen	+3.7	Danny Green	-0.7	SG
Rajon Rondo	+6.1	Tony Parker	+6.5	PG

*This match-ups table is a visual tool, it does not actively factor into my decision. It is more for fun, than functionality.

Miami Heat -2.5

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

This one is easy. OKC is probably the most overvalued team in the NBA right now. Yes, they are good, but not good enough to beat the Heat in Miami. Miami is the best home team in the NBA, by far. San Antonio is the next best home team, but they are 3 rating points behind the Heat.

I give the Heat an advantage weather Wade plays or not, I am 90% sure he will play though. Wade simply took Tuesday off in order to rest-up for a big match-up against the Thunder. He has a bruise, nothing more.

Not much else I can say, home court advantage is too large for the Thunder to overcome in this match-up.

Referee assignments:

• Bill Kennedy: 19-21 home team ATS record
• Olandis Poole: 21-16 home team ATS record
• Zach Zarba: 22-21-1 home team ATS record

Match-ups
Player	Roland	Player	Roland	Pos.
LeBron James	+18	Kevin Durant	+11.1	SF
Chris Bosh	+5.1	Serge Ibaka	+4.4	PF
Ronny Turiaf	+3	Kendrick Perkins	-7.6	C
Dwayne Wade	+14.9	Thabo Sefolosha	+4.3	SG
Mario Chalmers	+2.4	Russell Westbrook	+7.4	PG

*This match-ups table is a visual tool, it does not actively factor into my decision. It is more for fun, than functionality.

**Cleveland Cavaliers +11.5 (no longer recommended without Kyrie Irving)

This play was submitted to my record trackers before the Kyrie Irving announcement. So this play will be reflected in my YTD record, but it is not a recommended play now that Irving is scratched.

[thesafecracker]

Thanks Billy.
Love the Heat pick.
All the chatter automatically surrounds the Thunder and nobody is giving the Heat a chance.
Should be a solid "V".

[Speedy88]

Love both the plays. Good luck Billy.

[BathingApe]

Sigh i'm opposite on both games. Figured I'd be square today.

[dowecheat'em&how]

thanks billy......DWCH

[brainfreeze0]

I didn't bet either but I like both calls although being from TX Id rather see Spurs take it.

[MarkTX]

BOL of luck! Love the picks!

[ses_d]

love your analysis Billy. good call on both plays. keep up the good work. bump to a great start of the weekend.