[billyunl]

Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

Busy day, limited write-ups today.

Plays:

Detroit Pistons +5

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

The Pistons have a 6-point edge with Anderson out and Gordon returning. So that is their minimum advantage. The real allure here is that Howard and Nelson are both game-time decisions for the Magic. If Howard sits the Pistons edge doubles to 12 points (at Pistons +5). Additionally, if both Nelson and Howard sit, the edge is boosted to 13.5, which is just enormous. Take the Pistons now at +5 and hope we can get those bonus injuries to come through.

Referee assignments:

• James Capers: 17-17-1 home team ATS record
• Eric Dalen: 21-19 home team ATS record
• Sean Wright: 21-20-1 home team ATS record

Sacramento Kings +2.5

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

Nash claims that his back injury is “as bad as it has ever been”, which is never good for the performance of a 38-yeard old on a team where he is the only PG, let’s face it, both back-up PG’s are absolutely terrible. The Kings are deeper than the Suns are, as most teams in the NBA are. The Suns second team is almost comical, they make the Suns liable to get trounced by any team, on any given night. Because of Nash’s condition, the Suns have been trying to keep him around 30 minutes per game, that means the Suns have to navigate ~18 minutes of playing a D-league caliber point guard.

I think this is just one of those games where the home team takes the win. Young teams are always dangerous late in the season because they are looking to actively improve for the future. The Suns are the 4th oldest team in the NBA (weighted for minutes played). The Kings are the youngest team in the NBA.

Referee assignments:

• Monty McCutchen: 20-22 home team ATS record
• Tony Brown: 18-22 home team ATS record
• Scott Twardoski: 19-15-1 home team ATS record

[salvador_7764]

Thanks for the pick billunl.

[og4667]

nice picks, great writeups

[Speedy88]

Good luck, I like Detroit. Not quite sure about the Kings yet, no Thornton really hurts. He is their most dynamic player IMO. Only guy who can really knock it down from the perimeter consistently.

[dowecheat'em&how]

thanks billy..............DWCH

[abe74]

Glad I got Detroit at +5 before it dropped down to +1.

[billyunl]

Good luck, I like Detroit. Not quite sure about the Kings yet, no Thornton really hurts. He is their most dynamic player IMO. Only guy who can really knock it down from the perimeter consistently.

Yeah, but I consider Thornton and Hill injuries cancelling each other out. Thornton has a roland rating of +2.6, Hill has a +3.7. Both Thomas and Cousins are more important to the Kings success, according to the roland ratings. Both Thomas and Fredette have better 3FG% than Thornton, both have hit over 60 threes this season too, in limited minutes.

On another note, both Nelson and Howard are sitting for Orlando.. line is down to +1 in some places.

[MarkTX]

shoot missed Detroit before the line move. Nice for you guys!! I may try and get a good live line during teh game if I can.

Good luck tonight billy!

[BigDofBA]

Love the picks. I locked both of these in this morning.

[Hangoverblack]

Wow. My local locked it at +5 again. Killed him Sunday with nuggets at magic, now going to 10u Detroit at +5.

Very fortunate.

Even if it loses, it's one of those you can lose with a bit of a smirk

[mbs4]

Yeah, but I consider Thornton and Hill injuries cancelling each other out. Thornton has a roland rating of +2.6, Hill has a +3.7. Both Thomas and Cousins are more important to the Kings success, according to the roland ratings. Both Thomas and Fredette have better 3FG% than Thornton, both have hit over 60 threes this season too, in limited minutes.

On another note, both Nelson and Howard are sitting for Orlando.. line is down to +1 in some places.

Where do you find roland ratings? Thanks.

[BrUno0]

Yeah, but I consider Thornton and Hill injuries cancelling each other out. Thornton has a roland rating of +2.6, Hill has a +3.7. Both Thomas and Cousins are more important to the Kings success, according to the roland ratings. Both Thomas and Fredette have better 3FG% than Thornton, both have hit over 60 threes this season too, in limited minutes.

On another note, both Nelson and Howard are sitting for Orlando... line is down to +1 in some places.

Billy If don't mind sharing, could you tell me how you convert the Roland Rating to the ATS edge?