1. 04-01-12 03:26 PM #1
    blanco
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    There is value in Lakers to score first prop bet

    Even at -135. Logic:

    Bynum wins 68% of jump balls
    David Lee wins 31% of jump balls
    (http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.c...inners-losers/)
    _________________________________
    To beat -135, we must win roughly 57.5% of the time.

    We will assume the team with the ball will score 50% of possessions, even though the lakers should score more often than the warriors.

    If Bynum wins this jump ball 80% of the time (Seems about right being the second best as 68% winner against one of the worst at 31%), this bet cashes almost exactly 60% of the time.

    Even if Bynum only wins this jump 75%, we still cash this bet 58.33% of the time.

    There is a good chance he wins this more than 80% of the time but we want to stay conservative in our estimates.

    The juice sucks, if it was -115 I would be playing for 2-3u, but I see no reason not to play this guy for 1u.

    BOL to anyone that tails
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  2. 04-01-12 03:36 PM #2
    takeunder
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    Lakers are at home too. Also they have a better FG% and better opposition FG%. Im on it! thanks for the heads up man!!!
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  3. 04-01-12 08:48 PM #3
    blanco
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    easy money
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  4. 04-01-12 08:52 PM #4
    yisman
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    none of my books have props up for the game
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  5. 04-01-12 08:54 PM #5
    yisman
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    oh good pick, didn't see this thread earlier.
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  6. 04-01-12 09:04 PM #6
    blanco
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    tyty. 3/3 in these so far. Anytime the magic or Lakers juice isn't ridiculous I will continue to do these.
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  7. 04-01-12 09:04 PM #7
    blanco
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    as long as they are jumping against someone at or below average
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