Hello everyone, I'm a new user here but I have been browsing this forum for a few weeks now tailing a play here and there. My NBA betting has been piss poor lately though as I have been making bad plays after losing a few (NYK 5x ML yesterday, ugh, what was I thinking). I want to use this playtracking thread to stop me making those bad plays and hopefully get some wins going of course. Anyway on to my picks for tonight:
Knicks -11: Cavaliers have been terrible recently on both offense and defense, this shouldn't be close even with Kyrie Irving playing and all the injuries the Knicks have. Knicks know they could use an easy win here with lots of tough games ahead. I probably won't be picking the Knicks for a while after this one.
Grizzlies +2.5: Bucks have mostly been beating up on bad teams and losing to good ones lately. Grizzlies are struggling and lost some close games but have been winning second games of b2b's, six in a row now. Both teams should want this one badly so it should be a close game.
So far so good, Knicks taking their sweet time to pull away but it's all good . Nice 3rd quarter by Grizzlies gives them a 7 point lead, could still go either way. Fingers crossed...
Since I've been busy watching the Tour of Flanders today (biggest cycling event in Belgium) I have only had time to look at the first game today so far. But I'll have a look at Nuggets/Magic and Pacers/Rockets later on as well:
Thunder -6: Not a whole lot riding on this game for either team. It's mostly for show and a morale boost I guess but I expect the Thunder to be as eager as ever. They have been blowing by a lot of teams with decent defenses, especially at home, having more trouble with good offensive teams it seems. Although the Bulls defense is something else I still expect them to fail at containing the Thunder offense in a quarter or two and not match them offensively there without Rose. Bulls couldn't handle the high scoring Nuggets recently either, although defending against a bunch of solid shooters is not the same as against three really good shooters of course.
This one is certainly looking good now with Thunder up by 16 early in the 3rd. Thunder playing smart defense and letting Noah be open to shoot, which he can't do. Too early to call it of course but I'm feeling very good about this one right now .
Edit:Thunder up by 23 now so screw it, I'm calling it a W already!
1-0 so far today and 3-0 overall. I could get used to this.
Anyway, decided not to play the Nuggets/Magic game since I had no clue how Howard being out would affect both teams tonight (looks like Magic isn't taking it well). Last play of the day for me will be on Pacers/Rockets game:
Rockets -3.5: Rockets have been a good home team all season and it's only by winning games like this that they can get themselves into the playoffs. After this it's a road trip with two really tough games right off the bat. That combined with having rested 3 of the last 4 days should have them fired up for this game. I expect the good offense they had against Memphis to continue, especially since the Pacers defense has been lacking a bit lately. That probably has something to do with their schedule being packed with back to backs right now. At any rate I think they'll be saving some energy for the opening game of their next b2b against the Knicks at home. They did get beat up pretty badly by them two times in a row a few weeks ago after all.
Ouch, Rockets can't hold on to a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter and lose in overtime. Disappointing loss there, record is now 3-1.
Thunder -8: Making this play early today because I don't think I'll get a much better line here, even though I think it's a bit inflated. Grizzlies have given Thunder a run for their money this season but have still lost all three games. The Grizzlies' bigs have been making things difficult for Durant and Westbrook resulting in one of them having a subpar night in all three games (two for Westbrook, one for Durant). They are both nigh unstoppable right now though and had to play only three quarters yesterday. Randolph not playing well for the Grizzlies, Conley possibly being out and Thunder defense being quite decent recently should put a dent in the Grizzlies offense.
Jazz/Blazers over 198: I'm not much of a totals kind of guy but I'll occasionally play one that seems off to me. Both teams could very well go over a hundred. I am assuming though that the Jazz will want to fight for this game to stay in the playoff race even after losing three in a row.
Underestimated Grizzlies defense and overestimated Durant and Westbrook. Crappy 4th quarter in the other game almost cost me the over play as well so I'll take that 1-1 I guess.
Knicks/Pacers under 190.5: Liking the Knicks defense better than its offense right now and it's supposed to be the strength of the Pacers as well. I'm expecting an intense defensive battle here with the Pacers looking to avoid a sweep.
I've also been looking at the Sixers/Heat game and past results have me leaning towards Heat -8.5. Heat covered their past three games, two of them were huge wins and in the third game they wasted a 29 point lead with a terrible second half. Heat got embarrassed by Celtics last game and usually that means a big comeback game at home. They also lost big to Thunder recently though and they are visiting tomorrow. I'm worried the Heat won't care about this game. They won the series already and the next game is more important. Maybe the Heat will still try for the 1st seed in the east though after seeing the Bulls struggle. What do you guys think?
Heat -7: Pulled the trigger on this one because of Wade being out. I think this will force his team to take this game seriously now, at the very least as a test run for tomorrow.
Also put another unit on Knicks/Pacers under at 192 earlier today, although I'm not amused that it jumped up half a point again.
Hawks -13: Not gonna overthink this one. I see no reason why the Hawks won't be able to obliterate the Bobcats today. They don't have to hold back for anything important coming up, are well rested and fighting for the no. 3 seed in the east. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith should have a field day.
Celtics +1: Spurs are looking good (I think they can go all the way this year) but Celtics have been great at home and probably want and need it more.
Jazz -6: I think the Suns are a bit overrated and I don't like their chances of making the playoffs much. Jazz have been covering a lot at home especially as favorites, Suns not so much on the road.
Also hoping to find a better line to play the Heat on closer to game time even though it just went the other way again.
1-1-1 on the day, 5-5-1 overall. Could have been a good day but it wasn't to be. Ended up not playing Miami, which would have won and Pierce couldn't make the game winning shot for Boston to complete a comeback. I started today off well with a couple of winning bets on Europa League soccer though and am hoping to also finish well with some NBA dogs:
1-1 day, 6-6-1 overall. Still a net win on last night's plays since the Knicks bet was slightly larger at 1.5 units (should have put on more ).
Thunder -3.5: Took this one very early (at about the same time I put a unit on Rory McIlroy to win the Masters at +550 before the start of the 2nd round actually, liking that bet quite a bit now) and I'm a little nervous about the lack of line movement. Still can't see OKC losing three in a row but it definitely feels a bit trappy. Nothing to do now though but wait and see I guess.
Also going for a 4 team teaser today:
Hawks -4/Heat -3.5/Mavs -1.5/Lakers -1.5 (+250): Several of my bets have lost by a tiny margin or pushed lately and I'm thinking a good amount of lines will be close again today hence the teaser. Could very well be a terrible decision, but I'm getting a little annoyed at these close losses so I'm trying this out as a possible new strategy for the rest of the regular season.
6-8-1 record, took a day off yesterday after a disappointing friday and after watching McIlroy choke again at the masters.
Knicks ML (+135): Took this right before the game started for 2x and I like the look of it already with good defense by NYK. Hope I'm not jinxing it here heh.
Man these games are getting crazier every day! Blitz start by the Knicks slowly undone, Bulls had it for the taking but failed at the line then Melo with some unreal shots for OT and the win. Great show but impossible to predict unfortunately, I'm just glad I was at the right side of it this time. On to the next game, if my heart can take it that is:
Sixers ML (+145): Sixers going for the sweep here having killed the Celtics in the recent other two games. Both were second games of b2b for Boston after winning the first one. Both times Philly lost two nights before. Boston won last night and Philly lost the last one although it's a b2b for them now too. Public on the Celtics and the line moved slightly the other way.
So yeah, not taking the Sixers anymore. It was painful to watch and I stopped doing that when they were 25 points down in the 3rd. Record is now at 7-9-1.
Another 1-1 night makes it 8-10-1 overall. Still a profitable night for me, bet the side 1.5 times bigger than the total. But mostly because of the 5 point teaser I hit but didn't put up here (not gonna count it either). It was Pacers -5/Magic -2/Nuggets -4/Hornets +9/Suns +2/Grizzlies +1 (+500). Pacers almost ruined it for me but only pushed it down to a 5 team teaser. That cost me 1.5 units though and in hindsight I could in fact have just parlayed the rest normally and made a killing so I'm still a little annoyed with the otherwise positive result.
Plays for today:
Knicks +8.5
Magic -5.5
Another teaser too: Nets +10/Mavs -4.5/Knicks +13.5/Magic -0.5 (+200)
Ugh another hellish 0-3 night in the NBA for me, 8-13-1 record now. I'm starting to think I should stick to soccer bets but I'm not ready to give up on this league just yet:
Slightly profitable 1-1 day, 9-14-1 overall. Not loving today's card much. Gonna watch the Heat/Bulls game and maybe make a live bet and enjoy a profitable day of soccer betting either way. I am making one play today though that's likely gonna fail horribly, but it's a small one for sure:
Wolves ML (+285): Let's see how ridiculous the NBA can get this year and have Minny sweep the Clips . I do have a a bit of reasoning behind this madness though. This might just be a letdown spot for the Clippers and the Wolves did try hard last night to compensate for Love's absence. They really have nowhere to go in the standings, up or down, so they can just play to please the home crowd. Or they could simply throw in the towel. Preferably the first thing.
Wolves lost, what else is new? But hey at least they did well for a quarter and a bit and were actually up by 10 at one point before vanishing completely. 9-15-1 record.
Still a decent NBA night for me though because I took Chicago ML when they were down by 8 in the 3rd. I thought for sure I'd lost this one when LeBron hit that three with less than a minute to play and then got some free throws.
@ the rest of the game. How to Lose a Game of Basketball, by Miami Heat. My favorite: they simply let the Bulls shoot a three to tie and don't foul with only a handful of seconds remaining?!
Moving on to today:
Mavs -3: Could be a trap but I doubt it. Public plays have done very well recently and I like this one as well. Dallas probably looking to hold on to that 6th seed to avoid running into OKC or the Spurs in the first round. Line seems to be steadily moving up now so I'm taking it early.
Orlando, Boston and Milwaukee games look interesting as well but that's for later. First it's time for some MLB action.
The NBA continues to be unkind to me, I'm now 9-16-2 in this thread. Luckily my baseball and soccer betting is treating me much better. If this NBA weekend isn't an improvement though I'll probably sit the rest of the regular season out and wait for the playoffs.
2-1 day, 11-17-2 record. Yesterday was a better NBA day than most for me but still not all that great. Hopefully more good days to come.
Knicks ML (+125): I really thought I would be fading the Knicks more towards the end of the regular season but they've been pretty good in the important games. Miami hasn't and I'm going to ride this trend today again.
0-3 makes 11-20-2. The NBA is constantly eating away at my winnings and I've just about had enough of it. I'm playing 4 sides today and if I go worse than 2-2 I'm pretty much giving up on the regular season and ending this thread. If so, I still might play the few games left where both sides absolutely have to win.
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. Nice 3rd quarter by Grizzlies gives them a 7 point lead, could still go either way. Fingers crossed...
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. I do have a a bit of reasoning behind this madness though. This might just be a letdown spot for the Clippers and the Wolves did try hard last night to compensate for Love's absence. They really have nowhere to go in the standings, up or down, so they can just play to please the home crowd. Or they could simply throw in the towel. Preferably the first thing.
@ the rest of the game. How to Lose a Game of Basketball, by Miami Heat. My favorite: they simply let the Bulls shoot a three to tie and don't foul with only a handful of seconds remaining?!