1. 03-30-12 03:48 PM #1
    billyunl
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    NBA Friday.. 1-1 yesterday.. 76-46-1 YTD (62.3%).. +50.8 units

    I am amending my official record. My record will now only reflect that of my third party record tracker with the largest sample size, which is my "covers "record. My new official [third party confirmed] record is 76-46-1 for +50.8 units. You can find the link to my official record, as tracked by covers, in my SBR profile.

    This is in everyone’s best interest, because now I can be 100% backed by certified third party record tracking.
    Obviously, my old record fell within this range, but all the plays were not completely documented by a third party tracker.

    I urge you to only believe records that are third party certified. I lead by example, so my record is only as good as can be certified by a record tracker.

    Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

    All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

    Plays:

    Detroit Pistons +12

    Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

    The Bulls are actually one of the most counter-intuitive teams in the league. I power rate them 6 rating points better on the road, so we pick-up a nice nice edge via the odds makers universal home edge adjustment.

    Chicago still covers the spread with more frequency than any other NBA team, except for San Antonio. As you would imagine, the league average is around 50%, because odds makers love split action and split cover rates, and they have the power to influence both figures. The Bulls are a popular team, and a team that the public loves to back, so odds makers are going to auto-inflate Bulls lines.

    Please not that I adjust for every injury and trade fully, so please do not send me e-mails asking if we still like the Pistons with Stuckey and Gordon out. I count every injury against a team that is worse than probable, so I set my numbers as is all questionable, game-time decision, and doubtful players will miss the game, even though they sometimes end up playing.

    The Bulls are in cruise control, and are likely just holding Rose out so that he is 100% healthy for the playoffs, they have absolutely no motivation to beat this Pistons team by double digits.

    Referee assignments:


    • Tony Brothers: 17-24 home team ATS record
    • Bennie Adams: 19-21 home team ATS record
    • Josh Tiven: 20-17 home team ATS record


    New Jersey Nets +4

    Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

    I rate the Nets as 7 rating points better on the road. They are second to only the Hornets for most counter-intuitive teams. That means we are gaining a huge edge from the odds makers universal home court advantage, so it is the same scenario as both of our winning Hornets plays the past 2 days.

    It would not be a stretch to say that the Warriors are one of the worst teams in the NBA at this point of the season. Their fans are disgruntled from the Monta Ellis trade, and they look like they are shutting Curry down for the rest of the season. This team is left with two bad point guards, in Robinson and Jenkins. Robinson is flashy and skilled, but he makes ridiculously bad decisions at times. Deron Williams, and even Sundiata Gaines, will have quite an easy go at it tonight. Keep in mind that Sundiata Gaines has the best Roland rating on the Nets entire team (+6), in limited minutes. Nets second team , with Gaines, Morrow, and Gerald Green, should dismantle the Warriors second team. I actually don't think the Warriors really have a first team anymore, it is more like they start with their second team and bring in their third, so you could say that the Nets second team will dismantle the Warriors third team.

    I have the Nets winning this one by 4 points, but I could see it being a beat down. If the Nets actually play with and urgency and desire, they have the talent to hang with/beat good teams.

    Referee assignments:


    • Dan Crawford: 18-18-2 home team ATS record
    • Michael Smith: 19-20-1 home team ATS record
    • Scott Twardoski: 18-14-1 home team ATS record
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  2. 03-30-12 04:53 PM #2
    Speedy88
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    Good luck Billy, I'm on DET +11.5. Not sure about the late game.
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  3. 03-30-12 05:17 PM #3
    billyunl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Speedy88 View Post
    Good luck Billy, I'm on DET +11.5. Not sure about the late game.
    Good luck to you as well, Speedy.
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  4. 03-30-12 05:25 PM #4
    575M
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    Let's do this! Good luck tonight... I'm really impressed by the way you handle the haters. Very professional.
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  5. 03-30-12 05:43 PM #5
    ParlayJunkie
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    Nets is my favorite play on the board tonight. GL
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  6. 03-30-12 06:10 PM #6
    pimpinaces
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    Im the opposite on both lol
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  7. 03-30-12 06:31 PM #7
    thesafecracker
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    was taking the bulls and looking for a defensive shutdown of detroit
    go pistons
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  8. 03-30-12 06:36 PM #8
    pimpinaces
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    Im a pistons fan hardcore. No chance. They are going to get smashed on the boards
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  9. 03-30-12 09:23 PM #9
    575M
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    Got hooked on the Pistons...
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  10. 03-30-12 09:27 PM #10
    Intwoition
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    Love it Billy, we lost on Pistons, but keep it coming-- Nets have no chance of covering.


    (Does that alleviate the jinx for Nets = best play of the night?)


    I'm actually ML on Nets - so glglgl all!
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  11. 03-30-12 09:32 PM #11
    Speedy88
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    Wow, can't beleive the half point got me.
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  12. 03-30-12 09:36 PM #12
    hangtime
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    wow, what a bad beat in the pistons game.
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  13. 03-30-12 09:37 PM #13
    moshi
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    On the Nets +3.5 too
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  14. 03-30-12 10:00 PM #14
    CrazyCarl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Speedy88 View Post
    Good luck Billy, I'm on DET +11.5. Not sure about the late game.
    That's brutal man. Ouch.

    @OP, Y U no share for the whole season?!
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  15. 03-30-12 11:15 PM #15
    TheAntFather
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    Dam, Nets getting mushed, guess they don't give a fk no more. No more Nets or Pistons for me this year.
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  16. 03-30-12 11:19 PM #16
    Intwoition
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    D Will is 0-9...if he hits .44 of his shots, the Nets are in the lead....sigh...
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  17. 03-30-12 11:59 PM #17
    BathingApe
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    holy crap

    Also good thing I bought that half point on Detroit
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  18. 03-31-12 12:02 AM #18
    CrazyCarl
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheAntFather View Post
    Dam, Nets getting mushed, guess they don't give a fk no more. No more Nets or Pistons for me this year.
    Was wondering why you gave up on them so quick. 1-0-1 for the OP today. Not bad by any means.
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  19. 03-31-12 12:09 AM #19
    BathingApe
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    Well I gave up on the Nets. I was just hoping Blazers would cancel it out.
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  20. 03-31-12 12:18 AM #20
    moshi
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    Quote Originally Posted by BathingApe View Post
    Well I gave up on the Nets. I was just hoping Blazers would cancel it out.
    Nets WON THE GAME in case you didn't realize.
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  21. 03-31-12 12:38 AM #21
    BathingApe
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    Yeah, that's what my response was talking about, hence the past tense of the sentence.
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  22. 03-31-12 12:44 AM #22
    kts
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    It was Detroit +12.5 at half time.
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  23. 03-31-12 12:45 AM #23
    kts
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  24. 03-31-12 01:16 AM #24
    pepero428
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    good call on the nets billy
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  25. 03-31-12 08:03 AM #25
    thebestthereis
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    Billy Baroo
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  26. 03-31-12 10:09 AM #26
    last-1-2-know
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    Damn.....i got his picks yesterday late (as my name would suggest) and only got detroit -11.....of coarse i still played it....so i actually went 1-1 off billys picks....damn, i need a text msg. Notification alert or something...damn!!!!
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  27. 03-31-12 11:34 AM #27
    convick
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    Quote Originally Posted by last-1-2-know View Post
    Damn.....i got his picks yesterday late (as my name would suggest) and only got detroit -11.....of coarse i still played it....so i actually went 1-1 off billys picks....damn, i need a text msg. Notification alert or something...damn!!!!
    Not sure it would have mattered. I think line was at 11.5 most places when this was posted.
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  28. 03-31-12 11:40 AM #28
    spippen
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    Quote Originally Posted by convick View Post
    Not sure it would have mattered. I think line was at 11.5 most places when this was posted.
    Always buy the hook on any line like this, well I do anyways. I'd rather have that comfort zone and not worry about .10 more to lay. Some will argue, but that is how I do it. If I lose 1.20 then so be it.
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  29. 03-31-12 04:25 PM #29
    dowecheat'em&how
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    any plays for saturday
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  30. 04-01-12 01:01 PM #30
    Dexter
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    nm............
    Last edited by Dexter; 04-01-12 at 01:27 PM.
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  31. 04-01-12 01:09 PM #31
    Guru1029
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    I like it and many others seem to so go somewhere hater
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  32. 04-01-12 01:13 PM #32
    Dexter
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    nm..........
    Last edited by Dexter; 04-01-12 at 01:27 PM.
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