Originally Posted by
blanco
Lakers to score first (-115)
Bynum wins 73% of jump balls and OKC's center is white. Is this good enough to beat 15c juice?
A quick google search of "Cole Aldrich jump ball" shows him losing every jump ball on the first page, but I couldn't get a % for him.
To be conservative, we'll say Bynum wins this one 75% of the time. If the Lakers score 50% of the time once they get the jump ball (arbitrary number-if someone has a better number to use here let me know), then there is a 37.5% chance of this cashing off the bat.
That leaves 62.5%. Give 31.25% to OKC for the next possession, 15.625% chance of the Lakers hitting in their 2nd possession, and we are at 53.125% on the lakers with 15.625% left to continue diving up like this. Im sure someone could run it through a model and get an exact %, but it will be well over the 53.6% we need to win this bet to break-even. If anyone has any input/stats on scoring % by possession that would be helpful.
Am I crazy for wanting to bet this?