1. #1
    billyunl
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    NBA Thursday.. 1-0 yesterday.. 98-57 YTD (63%) +73.9 units

    Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

    All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

    Plays:

    New Orleans Hornets +8.5

    Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

    One of the biggest misconceptions in this game is how much of a home court advantage everyone thinks the Rose Garden is. When the Blazers are good it can be sizeable, but this season the Blazers are only 3 rating points better at home, which is near/below league average. As you know by now, the Hornets are a much better road team than home team, according to my SOS weighted power rankings. We are catching another universal home team advantage edge.

    The fact of the matter is that you can basically bet on the Hornets any time they are away from home, the books will keep inflating their line because no one wants to bet money on a 13-27 team on the road. Well, no one except for the adept, who are far and far in-between in this industry.

    Again, don’t worry sbout the Hornet injuries. Books are over-adjusting for Ariza because people think he actually contributes positively, same for Kaman. Ayon is the only valuable player missing, but I would rather Landry get run in Ayon’s place.

    Referee assignments:



    • Monty McCutchen: 19-20 home team ATS record
    • Brian Forte: 17-19 home team ATS record
    • Violet Palmer: 15-16 home team ATS record


    Los Angeles Lakers ML (+100)


    Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

    OKC is ranked #4 in the NBA is terms of ATS cover rate. The Thunder are a public darling, so every OKC cover is bad for business, in the odds maker’s eyes. Even though the Lakers are a top-3 home team in the NBA, who should never be a dog at home, the fan fare surrounding the turnover-prone Thunder is enough to make them favorites in one of the toughest places to play in the NBA.

    As I mentioned before, the Lakers are a much better home team, so we are taking full advantage of the universal home court advantage that odds makers tack onto every line.

    The most commopn question I am fielding on this game is how I can go with the Lakers when there is such a talent disparity. The answer is: there is not a significant talent difference between these teams. Both of these teams are powered by a “Big 3.” For the Lakers it is Kobe, Gasol, Bynum who have Roland ratings of (+10.6, +8.2, +6.7) respectively, thats equals an aggregate of +25.5. For the Thunder it is Durant, Westbrook, Harden who have Roland ratings of (+11.7, +8.4, +7.4) respectively, that equals an aggregate of +27.5. So there is a 2-point Thunder advantage, which is basically negligible. The rest of both teams is pretty much peanut Roland ratings, so the “Big 3″ comparison is the only comparison that offers any real meat.

    I expect the home team to win this game, simple as that.

    Referee assignments:



    • Dan Crawford: 18-17-2 home team ATS record
    • John Goble: 15-26 home team ATS record
    • Leroy Richardson:12-25 home team ATS record

  2. #2
    BigDofBA
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    Huge Thunder fan and I agree with your Lakers pick.

    They win tonight. Bad spot for my Thunder.

  3. #3
    Judgejoebrwn
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    I'm on both of these as well. Let's cash this sh*t!

  4. #4
    Speedy88
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    Good luck I'm on the Lakers as well. BOL Billy. Your due for a sweep.

  5. #5
    a4u2fear
    TEASE IT
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    Thanks for picks billy

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