[peterpan19]

ok guys a little bit late with my picks today... but here is what I like so far:

Tor +6 1H
I actually intended to go with orl for the whole game in this one, as orlando went 2-1 this year against Toronto blowing them away by 23 and 13 pts and only loosing an early game start in Toronto... but when I looked more into the games I discovered that the half time leads for Orl were 6, 0 and -7 ... add that Toronto exploded in the first half during their 4 game winning streak...and that Orlando lead at the halftime for the last 5 games were by 7, 4, 6 (blowout win agains mil), 8 (that was when Bos was a mess) and 4... I just dont see them pulling away in the first half here... they are more like a 2H team as of late for me

Det +1.5
i think jimbo was it that said play a team after a SU loss when they scored less than 75 points... well Detroit fits the criteria today and I will give it a shot...add in that NJ is a mess right now, even more than the Pistons... plus Det is 4-2 SU and ATS... if it helps

Char +9 (only small or not, not sure yet..)
even if the Bobcats play on b2b nights here... they just seem to match up pretty well with the celtics as the covered both times this year already... you also have to wonder why is the spread only at 9 here today compared to 9.5 and 8.5 when they played in Char... you might say injuries... I just say that the Bobcats have a good chance to cover here today and the books know it too...the Bobcats will play some D today as well as the Celtics, so we wont see too many points in this one... I also expect the public to be all over the Celts today after they showed everybody they can blow away teams again... I dont know if the Bobcats have a chance to win here and keep their playoff hopes alive, but I know that they will not go down w/o a fight tonight...

Mia +5.5 or more
Dallas comes home after a short roadie, where they were blown away and blew away a team yesterday...that said Mia is a bit fresher today compared to the Mavs... plus Wade is still pissed about that close loss to Orlando on Monday ... give me Wade and the points today in that one...

Pho -1.5
Phoenix dropped 3 in a row... they dropped 3 in a row against Hou... if they want to have any chance to get into the playoffs they have to start winning now, every game no matter what... or at least give their fans a few more wins for their money... add in that this will be the last home game this season against a topclass opponent (bc lets be honest the playoff chances are very low) the house will be rocking and the Suns should give everything they have...

GL

[ASH0479]

Coming off a 3-0 night last night posted on your thread~

PHX - 1.5
Raptors +10
Lakers over 202
Mavs -5

Lets get it done

[cocknocker]

I am adding the Celtics HEAVY to my playbook for the day. My explanation is on my big board. I am going to wait it out and see if i can play them at -7.5 by buying a point.

[TheLemonDropKid]

Hey Jimbo! Peterpan is right......that Detroit game fits the criteria you talked about yesterday. For some reason that one just doesn't feel as yummy as the Dallas game yesterday.......are you still on it? What else are you playing today?

I'm thinking about going big on CKs Lakers Over and the Phoenix game......I like both of those. I may sprinkle a little on Detroit because of the criteria and the Lakers 1Q too......but I like how this week is going so far with me playing only 1 or 2 games max for the night so I may reconsider playing all 4.

[peterpan19]

anybody have some numbers on where the money is on in the Celts/Bobcats game ?
bc the line is going down and it is at 8.5 right now ?...

thx

[peterpan19]

booked 3 team 7 point teaser:
Mia +12.5
Det +8.5
Char +16

GL

[nitetrain]

think.....think.......think......dont fall into that trap....i see most of my fellow cappers seem to think that the det/nj game will go over the total of 186.5...cmon people where is ya reasoning? I cant see why that would happen in a million years....for 1 ,the oddsmakers are far from stupid yet imperfect....u really think that setting the total at 186.5 will be easier than it was earlier this year when the total was set 191 and went over with a combined score 103-96? No.no.no. Matter of fact since 3-26-06 nj has never even been close to going over 100pts. In 10 games over the years nj has just avg. 88pts a game whether playing at home or on the road...most of u might even say "well nigtridah,that was then this is now"... And my answer to that is okay lets take a look at why the last game went over then....
1-detroit was a different team...a.i. Was starting then logging 37min scoring 24pts yet allowing devin has to score 38.
2- it was a lotta fouling as both teams went 2 the free throw line a total of 76 times
3-it was just another game which had no meaning.

now both teams will be back to the basics which means that detroit will not let nj score that many points ,let alone devin harris scoring another 38.ai is not starting like before.and it will definitely not be a lotta fouling like it was in the first game.last game wasnt ya normal nj/det game.shit will be back 2 normal this game as both teams have more to play for...and given the way nj has put themselves in a hole....after vince carter and the head coache's apology for their recent play to the home crowd....i sense they will play a more defensiveminded game.

THE GAME WILL GO UNDER THE TOTAL....

[cocknocker]

anybody have some numbers on where the money is on in the Celts/Bobcats game ?
bc the line is going down and it is at 8.5 right now ?...

thx

Good! Then I'll wait and make my play like I intended on doing anyway, buy a point and then rock it like that. I already know that the consensus is in Charlotte's favor though

[cocknocker]

It's going over Night. There will be a total of 200 points scored in this game. New Jersey can't defend, and Detroit is desperate. Although they are 7th they want to hold onto that position. If they play Orlando in the 1st round, that's actually a winnable series for them as they have Orlando's number. 200 cuzz

[Trixie]

Hey guys, this is my first foray into the thread that has helped me make a lot of money this past couple of months. I don't want to come off as if I'm trying to educate you all because I fully acknowledge that without all of your considered input, I would be nowhere.

But I do feel I have something to contribute to our shared desire to smash the books...

I feel all of your pain on the Nuggets, believe me -- I've lost my share on them too. But I've won quite a lot as well. I won a lot on them last night. Because I took them 1Q only.

I could be way off base, because I don't really know a thing about basketball and on the NBA broadband pass they keep playing that advert where Melo owns the world in college, but in my opinion the Nuggets are NEVER a play for the whole game. I wouldn't take them at home +3 against the Twolves. They could easily pulverize a team, but you should just never expect it. Melo just doesn't seem to care to me. Not like Kobe or Lebron care. He will happily take you to town, but if he doesn't, it just doesn't seem to be that big a deal to him. That, in my opinion is why they will lazily allow the backdoor cover so frequently.

And you could see the team's attitude even in the first couple of minutes -- the Knicks had like five offensive rebounds or something in the first couple of minutes. It was just ludicrous. The reason IMO that they won the first quarter was because Billups hit two threes that just deflated the Knicks.

And it's weird, because George Karl perpetually looks like he is going to knife his players for slacking.

Anyway, my point is that for the people who use purely mathematical systems, maybe you need to factor this kind of thing in. Although this is in no way a slight at you guys. I have no problem acknowledging that you are much, much more intelligent than I am. I just think we need to factor in all of these variables when we attack the books.

Same with minutes played. My other big bet last night was the Trailblazers over Utah. Point being, Williams and Boozer had logged 42 minutes apiece the night before against the Knicks' late rally. I was actually disappointed when Boozer and Pryzbwhateverhsinameis got ejected, since the Booze was running close to empty, IMO.

Anyway, I apologize if I just wasted your time with something you all already knew. Good luck to everyone tonight!

[cocknocker]

Welcome to SBR Trixie

[Trixie]

Thanks, CK.

[shoebox]

Booking

GS -8.5

sac had so much energy with the retiring of vlade along with the maloofs presence, along with a good crowd. Now coming off a B2B, queens will have nothing to feed off of today as GS will just out score them badly.

[RoagBettor]

Welcome Trixie. Good comments.

[repski]

Booking

GS -8.5

sac had so much energy with the retiring of vlade along with the maloofs presence, along with a good crowd. Now coming off a B2B, queens will have nothing to feed off of today as GS will just out score them badly.

Shoe,
I was eyeing this one up also....so you think GS will be OK w/o S.Jax, Biedrins and Magette in this one?? I might ride shot-gun on this one

[shoebox]

Shoe,
I was eyeing this one up also....so you think GS will be OK w/o S.Jax, Biedrins and Magette in this one?? I might ride shot-gun on this one

Kelenna, morrow--snipers
turiaf on the boards
monte scoring and driving at will

no should not be a problem at all

[cocknocker]

Tomorrow there is only one play for me, and I wll be taking the Jazz+ ANYTHING. Denver's thin air advantage that they normally enjoy over visiting teams will not come into play as the jazz play at even higher altitude than the Nugget Hoes, and obviously the Jazz just got blown the f*ck out in their last game

[In2Win]

CK,

Toronto has been playing well, do you think they will cover tonight vs Orlando?

[RoagBettor]

The Cavs' win streak comes to an end Friday against Orlando. I will be taking Orlando to win SU.

[corona]

Tomorrow there is only one play for me, and I wll be taking the Jazz+ ANYTHING. Denver's thin air advantage that they normally enjoy over visiting teams will not come into play as the jazz play at even higher altitude than the Nugget Hoes, and obviously the Jazz just got blown the f*ck out in their last game

jazz haven't beat a (current) .500+ team on the road yet this season. and they're 2-12 at covering...and haven't covered for 10 straight games.

[mixpicks]

I thought the samething, CK That Public would be heavy on Houston, but not the case prety even spread actually 44% public on Houston No Line Movement Yet, so as of rt. now IMO seems like a tough game, However, there Is some "Steam" on the Under 225. (YESterday was Excellent For Smart Money) Today maybe a "JP's Day?
For me the Best Bet Tonight's Toronto+10 BOL...

[alamo]

Phx are a team that have thrown in the white towel on their season. Kings ran all over them and Shaq was failing to get back on D everytime they turned it over. Nash was the only who showed some fight but even he must be tired of the way the rest of the team has played. I would be shocked if Rockets dont win this personally but BOL to all no matter which way you go.

[Jimbo42]

Hey Jimbo! Peterpan is right......that Detroit game fits the criteria you talked about yesterday. For some reason that one just doesn't feel as yummy as the Dallas game yesterday.......are you still on it? What else are you playing today?

I'm thinking about going big on CKs Lakers Over and the Phoenix game......I like both of those. I may sprinkle a little on Detroit because of the criteria and the Lakers 1Q too......but I like how this week is going so far with me playing only 1 or 2 games max for the night so I may reconsider playing all 4.

Yessir... Deeeeetroit Baskeeeetballl.. is a play tonight. 75 points or less seems to be the embarrassment tipping point as well as the coach will be on top of his offense when they dip that low...That 73 points is the Pistons lowest output for the year.... May also take a look at Detroit team total either for the half or the game For now:
Booked:
Detroit +1

[repski]

RLM...lots of confusing RLM out there...
Wizards vs Memphis
Toronto vs Orlando

[Trixie]

Phoenix were handicapped by a b2b across time-zones, the day after going to OT with the Jazz. I'm not convinced they will win this one, but I don't think you should assume they are dead because of their performance against the Kings. That shit is tough.

[Jimbo42]

CK is spot on(as he usually is) with his PHX pick in my opinion... Houston appears to be on just a little downtick in their play.. Remember they were completely handled by Utah two games ago and that game broke their 4 game winning streak. They played the Clipps next at home (which is like a bye) and barely got that cover by a basket. Now back on the road. The Utah game also broke Houston's 4 game Road winning streak which allows a little doubt to creep back in their minds. Phoenix, while having lost three straight, are in the middle of a 5 game home winning streak... I don't buck a streak 'til its been broken... Haven't booked it yet but I'm on Phoenix Suns

[Jimbo42]

RLM...lots of confusing RLM out there...
Wizards vs Memphis
Toronto vs Orlando

Washington is kind of a live dog tonight. The Wiz are 4-1-1ats last six games... and Toronto has won 4 in a row straight up and are actually playing well... having said that I'm not playing either one....

[RoagBettor]

Jimbo, the Rockets led by 27 in that game and then the scrubs came in and they won by 17. They could have won by 40 if they wanted to. I would not use the Clips as a frame of reference.

[Trixie]

Rasheed Wallace out, major discontent, major shuffling of the pack. Iverson seems like he hates playing for the Pistons. On the other hand, as is well documented, the Nets just got eviscerated by a truly mediocre Bucks team on their own court. That's not how they want to be remembered. The last time the Pistons came to New Jersey the Nets won by 7 or 8. If Carter can hit his shots this time, I think they'll be ok.

Public is climbing all over Detroit and they might be right, but I'm putting a small play on New Jersey Nets ML.

[TheLemonDropKid]

Rasheed Wallace out, major discontent, major shuffling of the pack. Iverson seems like he hates playing for the Pistons. On the other hand, as is well documented, the Nets just got eviscerated by a truly mediocre Bucks team on their own court. Public is climbing all over Detroit and they might be right, but I'm putting a small play on New Jersey Nets ML.

You get a Triple Word Score for "eviscerated".

[The_Kid]

ML Parlay (-102)

Orlando Magic
Boston Celtics
Los Angeles Lakers

[Trixie]

Hah! I don't even care about winning the bet anymore.

[Jimbo42]

Jimbo, the Rockets led by 27 in that game and then the scrubs came in and they won by 17. They could have won by 40 if they wanted to. I would not use the Clips as a frame of reference.

Yeah Roag your right about that... Like I said Clipps like a bye, so i don't put a whole lot of weight into that game anyway. I'm putting alot more weight into the fact that HOU win streak was broken especially that road streak... but i could be completely wrong.. this game is shaping up to have a pretty good split within the mafia as to which is the side to play...

[RoagBettor]

I'm playing the under on the Rockets/Suns. I think both teams will tighten up the defense with so much at stake. The Rockets will not try to outgun them especially in Phoenix. It should be a great game to watch.

I've lived in Houston since 1989 and have watched most Rockets games since then and their battles with the Suns are always good. I remember the 1994 playoff game when the Rockets were up 20 after the 3Q and lost to go down 0-2. Game 3 was the start of "Clutch City"!

[BillAccpetor]

Detroit - New Jersey over 186

L.A. Clippers +3.5

Boston -8.5

Yesterday was nice 12 of 18 hit.

Bet against the public within the week and weekends go with the public...