[KBiggz]

Posted across the street by me. I don't post here but wanted to share. If you want some background on me, go across the street and find me. Same name...GL!


Sacramento -1.5 (Max Wager)

[KBiggz]

Here is a glimpse of my thought process behind the madness...

• Last 10 head-to-head, Sacramento 8-2 ATS (3-1 ATS at home)
• Sacramento favored twice in those 10 matchups at home 2-0 ATS
• Sacramento 10-4 SU at home vs West, Utah 4-12 SU on the road vs West
• Sacramento home scoring 101.6ppg (6th best in the league), Utah away defense 102.6 ppg (4th worst in the league)
• Utah away scoring 95.1ppg
• Utah coming off an emotional high beating the Lakers in LA and then beating OKC at home (Due for a letdown game, also potential look ahead game)
• This is Sacramento's 9th straight home game scoring 112, 120, 115, and 119 in the last 4
• Josh Howard declared Out for Season yesterday, Earl Watson now doubtful, Raja Bell questionable

[thebestthereis]

Dig for late breaking inside information before you make anything a game of the year. Unless u have 20+ games of the year, which is perfectly normal, this will increase your winning percentages.

[KBiggz]

Dig for late breaking inside information before you make anything a game of the year. Unless u have 20+ games of the year, which is perfectly normal, this will increase your winning percentages.

1 game of the year for each sport per season. Haven't lost...and hopefully I didn't just jinx myself

[Hangoverblack]

I hate to be a hater, but Nearly everything you listed adds value to the Jazz. All those things were considered when establishing the original line.

For a team thats won at home and performed well ATS, this is a small number, IMO. Too small.

Agree it could be a letdown/ look ahead play. However, consider Sacramento has performed terribly ATS as a small favorite this year.

Good luck. With the pubes split now, I will lay off this game.

[M.W.]

I hate to be a hater, but Nearly everything you listed adds value to the Jazz. All those things were considered when establishing the original line.

Sorry, that doesn't make sense. You're contradicting yourself. If those things are factored into the line, they don't add value to the Jazz. Under your theory there simply wouldn't be any value.

[KBiggz]

I hate to be a hater, but Nearly everything you listed adds value to the Jazz. All those things were considered when establishing the original line.

For a team thats won at home and performed well ATS, this is a small number, IMO. Too small.

Agree it could be a letdown/ look ahead play. However, consider Sacramento has performed terribly ATS as a small favorite this year.

Good luck. With the pubes split now, I will lay off this game.

Sacramento is 2-3 ATS as a home fav of 3 or less. This isn't good but it certainly isn't terrible since we are dealing with such a small sample.

[Hangoverblack]

[QUOTE=M.W.;14207495]Sorry, that doesn't make sense. You're contradicting yourself. If those things are factored into the line, they don't add value to the Jazz. Under your theory there simply wouldn't be any value.[/

Yes, but further.. If you consider that a return to statistical normalcy of all those trends is the most likely outcome over time, the jazz have value facing those trends.

So : the lines makers factor the trends into the opening line... therefore making the line skewed towards Sacramento.... Therefore making a return to statistical "normalcy" more likely... Which favors the Jazz.

[Speedy88]

Good luck, I like Sac as well. Looks like Coach Corbin is also shuffling around the lineup and rotation as well, which is always a good thing for the other side.

[KBiggz]

Yes, but further.. If you consider that a return to statistical normalcy of all those trends is the most likely outcome over time, the jazz have value facing those trends.

So : the lines makers factor the trends into the opening line... therefore making the line skewed towards Sacramento.... Therefore making a return to statistical "normalcy" more likely... Which favors the Jazz.

Don't you think the oddsmakers also took into consideration that Utah is on a little winning streak beating 2 straight quality opponents. I like to be contrary to public perception...A novice bettor will say to oneself, Utah just beat the Lakers and Thunder and are an underdog against Sacramento, and they will bet Utah. Similar to your argument for betting Utah...GL!

[Hangoverblack]

Bud I'm just saying. I think with the line going to -2 now that helps Sacramento, with 58% on the Jazz.

But to make a play of the year off those stats was my concern.

Good luck I hope you nail it. If the pubes lean Jazz and that line keeps moving out I like your chances.

[KBiggz]

Bud I'm just saying. I think with the line going to -2 now that helps Sacramento, with 58% on the Jazz.

But to make a play of the year off those stats was my concern.

Good luck I hope you nail it. If the pubes lean Jazz and that line keeps moving out I like your chances.

I have many more reasons for my bet. Those are just a few. I don't base my big bets solely on stats. I also factor in my initial gut feel and situational factors. If those stars align, I pound it. GL and thanks!