1. 03-20-12 01:51 PM #1
    billyunl
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    NBA Tuesday.. 2-0 yesterday.. 88-52 YTD (62.9%) +64.9 units

    Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

    All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

    Plays:

    Houston Rockets +3

    Stake    : 2.2 to win 2 units

    Ah, the Lakers, my #20-ranked road team. The Lakers are a Jekyll and Hyde team that is almost too easy to take advantage of when they hit the road. It wouldn’t be so easy if the public realized how atrocious the Lake show is on the road.

    The Rockets are a fairly deep team that would never be dogs at home to the Lakers, if Lowry and Martin were healthy. That means Vegas is valuing their injuries at 3 points for more, which is an over-adjustment. Courtney Lee replaces Kevin Martin and opens playing time for Chase Budinger, who has a higher Roland rating than Martin and Lee.

    Lowry, with a +4.9 Roland rating should be valued at 2 points max, so we are catching at least a 2-3 point over-adjustment from Vegas on the Rocket’s injury situation.

    Referee assignments:

    • Monty McCutchen: 15-19 home team ATS record
    • Mark Ayotte: 20-15 home team ATS record
    • Marat Kogut: 17-12-1 home team ATS record


    Get this line ASAP (as I alerted on twitter earlier today), looks ready to tick down to +2.5. If it is +2.5 at your book you should wait to see if it hits +3 again.

    Utah Jazz +3

    Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

    Al Jefferson will return to the Jazz today, but even without Jefferson this would have been a play.
    The Jazz are one of the best home teams in the NBA, I rank them #6. That means they should very rarely be a dog at home, and never a dog by 3 full points.

    The Thunder are one of the most publicly-backed teams in the NBA and that means Vegas loses money for every spread OKC covers. OKC is covering 55.6% of spreads this year and that means Vegas must inflate Thunder lines to stop losses.

    Vegas is in the same situation with the Thunder as they were with the Heat 2 weeks ago, right before Miami went on that 1-6 ATS run that I forecasted. Miami is now covering 50% of spreads on the season. Vegas will inflate OKC lines until they regress to a percentage similar to the Heat (50%), that means OKC is due for an ATS skid.

    Referee assignments:

    • Rodney Mott: 22-13 home team ATS record
    • Derrick Collins: 17-16-1 home team ATS record
    • Scott Wall: 16-10-1 home team ATS record


    You are safe to wait on this line fore now. The public is, naturally, heavy on the Thunder.

    Sacramento Kings +3

    Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

    Tyreke Evans will play, which is a small bonus, but not nearly as important as people. Evans is the sixth most important/efficient player on the Kings, of players that have played 25% or more of the Kings minutes this year. That being said, he is a better starting option than John Salmons, who has a terrible Roland rating of (-6.7).

    As I’ve said, the Kings are probably the most talented young team in the league, and that means they improve with every game they play. Memphis is scrappy and it is good that they got Randolph back, but he is still rusty and there are only so many shots/rebounds your team can get per game.

    I’ll take the home dog in a game like this any day.

    Referee assignments:

    • Eddie F. Rush: 15-15 home team ATS record
    • David Guthrie: 4-6-1 home team ATS record
    • Kevin Scott: 5-9 home team ATS record


    We are safe to wait on this line for now. Will update via twitter, as always.
    Last edited by billyunl; 03-20-12 at 05:10 PM.
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  2. 03-20-12 01:58 PM #2
    shadymcgrady
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    Like ur first two picks billy and as always great job including David sterns finger men. While sac as a home dog is appealing isn't Tyree Evans returning tonight? R u familiar with the outcomes when the star or best talented player returns from injury? I know ur simulator may in include the factor but was just thinking aloud
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  3. 03-20-12 02:06 PM #3
    billyunl
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    Quote Originally Posted by shadymcgrady View Post
    Like ur first two picks billy and as always great job including David sterns finger men. While sac as a home dog is appealing isn't Tyree Evans returning tonight? R u familiar with the outcomes when the star or best talented player returns from injury? I know ur simulator may in include the factor but was just thinking aloud
    The Evans injury actually works in our advantage, it was a big reason why I took the Kings at home against the Celtics on Friday.

    That fact of the matter is that Evans has a Roland rating of -1.9, making him the sixth most efficient/valuable player on the team (that plays over 25% of the team's minutes.) Simply put, Evans is overrated. Cousins, Thornton, and Thomas are the most valuable players to the Kings.
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  4. 03-20-12 02:14 PM #4
    shadymcgrady
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyunl View Post
    The Evans injury actually works in our advantage, it was a big reason why I took the Kings at home against the Celtics on Friday.

    That fact of the matter is that Evans has a Roland rating of -1.9, making him the sixth most efficient/valuable player on the team (that plays over 25% of the team's minutes.) Simply put, Evans is overrated. Cousins, Thornton, and Thomas are the most valuable players to the Kings.
    I absolutely agree, although I don't have the numbers and sophisticated tools of analysis like you. I do however believe that tyreke Evans is playing tonight
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  5. 03-20-12 05:06 PM #5
    Speedy88
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    Good stuff intuition, i'm on the exact same 3 as well. We have at least 2 winners here, hoping for 3. Good luck bud. Love the officiating statistics.
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  6. 03-20-12 05:07 PM #6
    billyunl
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    Thanks, Speedy. Write-ups are now in the original post of this thread.
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  7. 03-20-12 05:08 PM #7
    Speedy88
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyunl View Post
    Thanks, Speedy. Write-ups are now in the original post of this thread.
    Do you still post at covers?
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  8. 03-20-12 05:08 PM #8
    YouHave2outs
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyunl View Post
    Thanks, Speedy. Write-ups are now in the original post of this thread.
    i don't see them
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  9. 03-20-12 05:10 PM #9
    billyunl
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    Quote Originally Posted by YouHave2outs View Post
    i don't see them
    Should be there now.
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  10. 03-20-12 10:42 PM #10
    hydrosmak
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    Hitting on all cylinders here billy. Great work!
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  11. 03-20-12 10:48 PM #11
    underal
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    top notch. top notch. very impressive
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  12. 03-20-12 10:49 PM #12
    OUKUSFBOS
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    Nice work! You and Speedy convinced me on these tonight.
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  13. 03-20-12 11:03 PM #13
    PR9
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  14. 03-20-12 11:04 PM #14
    billyunl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Speedy88 View Post
    Do you still post at covers?
    Nope, I have a vendetta against covers. They suspended me for posting my twitter handle because that tool "handicapper33" hijacked my thread with 30+ comments just in an effort to point it out to mods. That trash forum isn't worth my time.
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  15. 03-20-12 11:10 PM #15
    SBRMAN23
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    Damn nice job man you made a killing
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  16. 03-20-12 11:18 PM #16
    Speedy88
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyunl View Post
    Nope, I have a vendetta against covers. They suspended me for posting my twitter handle because that tool "handicapper33" hijacked my thread with 30+ comments just in an effort to point it out to mods. That trash forum isn't worth my time.
    Agreed, I probably only post over there a few times a week. There are a couple guys over there that I like to check their plays, but other than that, Covers is overran with immature posters.
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  17. 03-20-12 11:42 PM #17
    billyunl
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    3-0 tonight. On a 5-0 NBA run.
    Points Awarded:

    Shoooby gave billyunl 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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  18. 03-21-12 02:21 AM #18
    Dakujito
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    really nice thx man
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  19. 03-21-12 07:43 AM #19
    mp5070
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  20. 03-21-12 09:29 AM #20
    Huy4936
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    good plays, tailed them all
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  21. 03-21-12 11:47 AM #21
    Shoooby
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    Billy, I must say, been tailing your plays this past week, your analyses and picks are spot on. Great work!
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  22. 03-21-12 12:02 PM #22
    pepero428
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    impressive to say the least
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  23. 03-21-12 12:21 PM #23
    BigBurk
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    Great work Billy. Your picks and write ups are top notch.

    Just hope you won't go tout. You kinda remind me of SJ55, and we all know how that ended.
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